Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1130 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
Updated for 18z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 635 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013/
Currently...temperatures are in the low to middle 20s across the middle-
south under mostly clear skies. Some areas are reporting
visibilities of less than 2 miles due to fog formation...mainly over
northeast Arkansas and along the Mississippi River where dewpoint
depressions are small. A cold front extends from central
Illinois...back through central Missouri...and into Oklahoma. A
1037mb high pressure center is currently located over the upper
plains and is progressively moving southeastward. This will help
to push the front into the middle-south this morning.
The cold front is expected to move through the Memphis metropolitan area
sometime around noon today. It will have very little
moisture to work with...so not expecting any precipitation or many
clouds this afternoon...just a strong shot of reinforcing cold
and dry air. High temperatures will peak early this afternoon and
then begin to level off around noon or so before falling by early
evening. The air behind the front will be very dry and cold...and
will bring the coldest temperatures of the year thus far to the
middle-south for Thursday morning. Overnight temperatures will
generally be in the low teens and possibly a few single digit
readings in the north...and near 20 degrees from Memphis
southward. Highs will be in the 40s on Thursday and will remain
quite cold through Friday morning as cold Arctic high pressure
remains over the mid-south.
This weekend...high pressure will shift east by Friday morning and
rain will begin to move into the middle-south by Friday afternoon.
Temperatures in the morning should quickly rebound from the 20s to
daytime highs in the 40s in the south...but will remain in the 30s
in the north. Depending on how quickly the atmosphere saturates
in the lower levels...there could be a possibility of sleet and
freezing rain across extreme northeast Arkansas...the Missouri
bootheel...and extreme northwest Tennessee where surface
temperatures will be at or below freezing with the onset of
precipitation. Will continue to monitor the possibility in the
coming days...but have added a slight chance to those areas in the
grids for Friday night in the meantime. By Saturday...all
precipitation will be in the form of rain across the mid-south.
Showers will begin to taper off from west to east in the late
evening hours on Saturday and high pressure will build in at the
surface for Sunday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to
lower 40s across the region for Sunday afternoon.
Next week...high pressure will remain situated over the middle-south
for at least midweek. Temperatures will begin to finally trend
warmer and we will reach seasonal temperatures by Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the middle part
of next week with highs near 60 by Wednesday.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will become northwest this afternoon and increase to around 10
knots by this evening before diminishing overnight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 41 21 37 27 / 0 0 0 10
mkl 40 16 36 22 / 0 0 0 10
jbr 35 15 33 23 / 0 0 0 10
tup 47 22 44 25 / 0 0 0 10