Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1124 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
updated for 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 1002 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
Much warmer tonight. The warming trend will continue through
Friday with slightly cooler conditions over the weekend. Rain
should move into east Arkansas by midday Friday and slowly shift
east across the remainder of the midsouth Friday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 529 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
updated for 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
An upper level shortwave lifting northeast out of the Southern
Plains today will continue to spread middle and high level cloud
cover over the area this afternoon and evening. Clouds should
thin out later this evening with partly to mostly clear skies
after midnight in most areas. Low temperatures should be
seasonably cool again tonight...ranging from the upper 30s to
lower 40s by sunrise Wednesday morning.
Upper level ridging should build behind the departing shortwave
for tomorrow and continue to control the regions weather through
Thanksgiving day. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures
warming above seasonal normals with highs into the middle and upper
60s and lows mainly in the 50s.
Models have continued to slow the progression of the rainfall into
the middle south. They continue to trend towards a deeper and
increasingly positively tilted western upper trough which in turn
keeps the ridging stronger over the southeastern states into the
Holiday weekend. The positive nature of the upper trough combined
with the slower movement results in the stalling of the frontal
boundary across northwestern portions of the area as opposed to
further south. This results in a trend towards warmer temperatures
over much of the area into the weekend.
Abundant moisture should still advect into areas where the front
stalls out as a series of shortwaves eject through the southwest
flow aloft and interacts with the stalled front. This should
result in the potential for a long period of rainfall...some heavy
at times...across areas mainly north of Interstate 40 through the
Holiday weekend. The potential will exist for several inches of
rainfall across northwest portions of the middle south...so plan to
continue enhanced flood potential wording in the hazardous
weather outlook. Also...a Flood Watch may need to be considered by
later shifts for the end of the week into next weekend time
The upper level trough finally begins to shift eastward early next
week helping to advance the front southeastward. This should keep
chances for rainfall in the forecast through the extended period.
Temperatures should cool back to below seasonal averages by the
beginning of next week.
06z taf cycle
VFR weather will continue. Light winds will increase to southeast
at 6-10 kts Wednesday. A few afternoon gusts may be seen at jbr and mem.