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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
634 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Update...aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/

An upper trough currently over northern Arkansas and an easterly
tropical wave over Alabama will converge over the midsouth tonight
into Sunday. The two systems will evolve to a broad upper trough
that will remain over the midsouth over at least the beginning of
next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur as a
result with best chances occurring along the Tennessee River in
west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi.

Beyond Monday...models begin to diverge on solutions with major
differences occurring by the latter part of next week. This is mainly
due to the fact the models are having a hard time dealing with the
remnants of Erika. The European model (ecmwf) keeps remnants of Erika well to the
southeast of the midsouth and builds the upper ridge back into the
area. Meanwhile...the GFS keeps the broad upper trough over the area
which eventually cuts off to a weak upper low over Texas that
drifts eastward converging with the remnants of Erika by the
middle to end of next week. Thus the model has decent chances for
showers and thunderstorms over at least the southeastern part of
the County Warning Area by Wednesday night through the end of the forecast period.
Think the European model (ecmwf) may have the best handle as it has been consistent
and has had the best handle with Erika. However for now will try
to go with a blend with 20/30 probability of precipitation over the southeast half of the
County Warning Area by the end of next week.

Temperatures will mainly be upper 80s to lower 90s for highs but
could be warmer by the end of next week if the European model (ecmwf) is correct.



Aviation...00z taf cycle

VFR conditions are expected tonight and tomorrow. A few showers of
thunderstorms may approach mkl from the east tomorrow
afternoon...but expected coverage and confidence in hot high
enough to include it in the taf at this time. South winds will
diminish to 5 kts or less overnight...only increasing slightly


Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


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