Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
553 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014
Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
Skies remain cloudy over much of the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s. A large area of
precipitation is moving across the forecast area at this time.
Precipitation is mainly in the form of rain with some sleet mixed
in at times mainly across portions of west Tennessee. As the band
of precipitation continues to move east this morning there could
be some sleet mixed in with the rain at times. Most of the
precipitation should be out of the region by this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain on the chilly side as clouds will remain
over the forecast area. Highs today will be mainly in the 40s.
High pressure will briefly build into the region tonight but
clouds will likely remain over the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain chilly with lows mainly in the 30s.
On Friday...low pressure will develop over south Texas and move
northeast reaching southwest Alabama by Saturday morning. This low
will spread light rain over the forecast area Friday and Friday
night. As temperatures cool late Friday night a mix of rain and
snow will be possible over northern sections of the forecast
area. As the low slides further east on Saturday...precipitation
will be ending over eastern sections.
High pressure will be in control of the weather for Saturday
night and Sunday keeping things dry and continued unseasonably
cool. A new storm system will move across the central U.S. On
Monday bringing another round of rain to the forecast area. The
associated cold front will move across the forecast area on
Tuesday with more rain expected. As the cold front moves toward
the East Coast on Wednesday rain will be ending over the forecast
12z taf cycle
Rain will be tapering off this morning leaving low clouds behind.
Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR at kjbr...kmem and kmkl this
morning and continue through the period. Ceilings will occasional drop
to IFR this morning at kjbr. Ktup should remain VFR through the
period though there is a small chance that MVFR ceilings will develop
there overnight. Light fog is possible across the area later