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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1236 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Update...
updated for 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1009 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015/

Discussion...

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures mainly in the low to middle 80s. Latest hrrr model still
shows some thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon
over eastern sections of the forecast area. Will update forecast
to remove morning wording with no big changes needed.

Ars

Previous discussion... /issued 618 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015/

Discussion...

An upper level shear axis that has persisted across the middle south
over the past few days has shifted east this morning and now
resides across the eastern half of the forecast area. Daytime
heating and weak lift associated with this upper trough will lead
to more isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across
west Tennessee...near the Tennessee River...and northeast
Mississippi. Elsewhere...upper level ridging will build from the
west with drier middle level air and subsidence which should
suppress most convection. Hot and humid conditions will continue
with most locations reaching into the lower to middle 90s this
afternoon with dewpoints near 70 degrees. Heat index values will
rise into the lower 100s in many areas making conditions feel
uncomfortably hot for this time of year.

Upper level ridging should build east over the entire middle south
for Friday and continue to control the weather conditions through
the weekend into early next week. Primarily dry weather along with
a continuation of hot and humid conditions should continue
through next Monday. High temperatures should remain in the lower
to middle 90s with lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Heat index
values should continue to exceed 100 degrees each afternoon in
many locations.

The upper ridge should break down by next Tuesday allowing a series
of upper level shortwave disturbances to pass across the region
through the middle of next week. A cold front should also move
south and stall across the region by the end of the extended
forecast period. There remains plenty of model differences through
this time period...so took a model blend and increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should drop back to near
normal values but with continued humid conditions.

Jlh

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs

Light winds and VFR will continue...with high pressure prevailing
aloft and at the surface. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances more limited than
yesterday and confined mainly to areas east of mkl-tup. Patchy
ground fog will be possible at tup and mkl toward sunrise Friday.

Pwb

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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