Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1138 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
updated to add 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 923 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
temperatures dropped off very quickly after sunset...but are still
falling at a rate o a degree every hour or two. Clear
skies...light wind and a dry airmass will result in frigid
conditions tomorrow morning. The coldest locations...namely
northeast Arkansas...and maybe west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River will fall into the teens with most of the area in the low to
middle 20s. Highs tomorrow will range drastically...from the upper
30s in northeast Arkansas to near 50 in northeast Mississippi.
Most of the area will be in the 40s. Clear skies will make
conditions feel slightly warmer.
Previous discussion... /issued 510 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
updated to add 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
Currently...high pressure prevails across the area with sunny
skies and light winds. Temperatures range from the lower 30s over the
snow/sleet/ice pack of NE Arkansas/MO bootheel/northwest Tennessee to lower 40s in NE
Tonight through Thursday night...below normal temperatures through this
period. A cold night is on tap with clear skies and light winds.
Lows around 20 north to middle 20s south. Temperatures will warm slightly on
Wednesday...though still well below normal...ahead of a
reinforcing cold front which will move through by afternoon. A
brisk northwest breeze will be noticeably after noon time. Another Arctic
high will settle over the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Wednesday night will be the coldest of the season so far with middle
teens north to lower 20s south. Thursday will be another cold day
with 30s to lower 40s. High pressure will start to retreat
Thursday night but not before another night in the 20s.
Friday through Saturday night...models are still in good agreement
with low pressure moving into the Red River valley on Friday and
overrunning developing across the midsouth. By Friday afternoon
precipitation chances will be increasing across the area. Right now it
looks like the Arctic air will retreat before the precipitation moves in
but will need to watch this. Temperatures will be a little warmer under
southerly flow but not too warm with clouds thickening and rain
moving in. Friday night looks very wet as lows pressure moves
across the midsouth. Upped probability of precipitation to categorical. Rain will taper
off on Saturday though clouds and some drizzle will remain as
cooler air starts to filter in. Clearing and colder conds expected
by Sunday morning.
Sunday through Tuesday...dry through the period with below normal
06z taf cycle
Freezing fog perhaps down to 1/4sm is possible at taf sites
between 11/08-12z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will persist for the next 24
hours. Light/nearly calm winds will increase to northwest/north
winds between 6-9 kts after 11/15z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 25 44 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
mkl 21 42 16 39 / 0 0 0 0
jbr 21 37 14 32 / 0 0 0 0
tup 25 49 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
Arkansas...freezing fog advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for Clay-
MO...freezing fog advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for Dunklin-
MS...freezing fog advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for Calhoun-
Tennessee...freezing fog advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for Lake-