Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1125 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 837 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
A few showers remain near the Arkansas/MO border at this time. Will go
ahead and update to keep 20 probability of precipitation in for the remainder of the
night. Can/T rule out isolated activity continuing during the
overnight hours with the area being underneath northwest flow
aloft. Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks good.
Discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed west/northwest flow
aloft over the midsouth...around the periphery of an upper ridge
centered over southeast nm. This pattern will continue into early
next week...as a slightly drier than normal airmass warms to above
normal afternoon highs. Under slightly building midlevel
heights... 850mb temperatures will warm around 1c per day...through
Tuesday. Upper 90s will be possible...with heat indices warming to
readings of 100 to 105.
12z runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continued to depict an upper level
shortwave dropping southeast into the Lower/Middle MS River Valley on
Wednesday. The best low level forcing with this feature will
remain over southern MO...into the western Ohio River valley.
However...scattered storms should still occur into the midsouth on
Wednesday...aided by a weak midlevel trough passage and diurnal
heating. Increased cloudiness and low level moisture should help
moderate maximum temperatures down to near normal on Wednesday.
Today/S 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) were in better agreement with respect to
the late week periods. Both models show northwest upper level flow
continuing...with varying timing of embedded shortwaves. Too early
to time individual waves... particularly any mesoscale convective vortex that may be generated
from upstream convection over the Central Plains. In general...the
latter half of next week appears less hot with thunderstorms
possible from Thursday into next weekend.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions and light winds will occur through the period.