Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
255 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the middle 50s to around 70 degrees.
High pressure is over the southeast U.S. At this time and will
remain there today. This will keep dry weather across the region
today and tonight. Temperatures will remain above normal with
highs today in the low to middle 80s.
An upper level disturbance will move across eastern Oklahoma and
into southern Missouri on Thursday. This disturbance may produce
some thunderstorms across Arkansas and some of this activity may
reach far western sections of the forecast area. Thursday will be
another warm day with highs mainly in the middle 80s. Thursday night
should remain dry and continued warm with lows mainly in the 60s.
By Friday...a cold front will be moving into the Central Plains.
Some thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front with
some of this activity moving into mainly western sections of the
forecast area. Temperatures will remain quite warm on Friday with
highs in the middle 80s. As the front inches closer to the forecast
area Friday night some thunderstorms will be possible mainly over
western and northern sections.
The cold front will stall out some on Saturday but will be close
enough for some thunderstorm activity to move into the forecast
area. Thunderstorms will still be possible for Saturday night as
well. On Sunday...low pressure is expected to develop along the
front over western Kansas and will start moving northeast. This
will help move the cold front into the Southern Plains with more
scattered thunderstorms possible over the forecast area for both
Sunday and Sunday night.
By Monday the cold front will be moving across Arkansas so this
will be the day when we see the best chance of thunderstorms. As
the cold front moves through the forecast area Monday night there
will still be a chance of thunderstorms. By Tuesday the cold front
will be east of the forecast area bringing an end to the threat of
thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will be found behind the front
with temperatures returning back to more seasonable levels.
06z taf cycle
VFR weather. Light southeast winds will increase and veer by middle
morning...with a few gusts at jbr. Winds will diminish by sunset.