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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1012 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Discussion...

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures in the 80s. Another hot afternoon is expected with
some isolated thunderstorms possible over mainly southern sections
of the forecast area. Made some minor cloud adjustments and
removed morning wording.

Ars

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 628 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015/

Discussion...

An upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern
Plains today extends eastward across portions of the middle south. A
subtle shortwave over the central Tennessee Valley this morning
will likely progress southwestward today and may help to initiate
at least isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly
along and south of Interstate 40. Temperatures will once again
reach into the lower to middle 90s with continued seasonably high
humidity levels which will result in heat index values around 100
degrees.

An upper level low pressure system cutting off over the
southeastern U.S. Should continue to progress towards the northern
Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Lowering middle level heights should
support the redevelopment of mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms across west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and
northeast Mississippi Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere...upper level
high pressure should persist keeping mainly dry weather in place.

The upper level high pressure ridge should expand across the
entire area for early next week as the upper low moves further
southwestward into the north central Gulf of Mexico. This should
allow for dry weather areawide for Monday and Tuesday with
continued hot and humid conditions.

The upper ridge should break down by the middle of next week as a
shortwave trough moves from the Central Plains across the
Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. This should support
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. An even stronger
shortwave dropping out of the northern plains by the end of the
week should push a cold front through the region. Models have
delayed the passage of the front by a good 24 hours compared to
yesterdays runs. Showers and thunderstorms should continue across
much of the area next Friday and across southern sections into
early next weekend. The good news is that once the front pushes
through...much cooler and less humid weather should build in
making conditions feel much more like fall. Cool and dry weather
is anticipated for the period just beyond the current seven day
forecast.

Jlh

&&

Aviation...
12z taf cycle

Patchy fog may produce MVFR/IFR visibilities through 05/13z at
mkl and at mkl/jbr/tup late tonight. Otherwise...VFR conditions
and light winds expected to prevail through the period.

Cjc

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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