Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
322 PM CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
a persistent layer of low clouds has curbed temperatures across a
good portion of the midsouth. It continues to erode...but it
doesn't look like we will make it to near 50 degrees as expected.
However...middle to possibly upper 40s still look possible as we
still have several hours of warming...and as mentioned
earlier...diminishing cloud cover.
Tonight...clouds will continue to dissipate and wind will shift
from the south. Fairly light winds and dew points in the low 30s
will allow temperatures to fall back into the low to middle 30s.
Southerly flow will increase tomorrow. Wind speeds may reach 20-23
miles per hour in the Mississippi River Delta and east Arkansas...but most
areas across the midsouth will see lower wind speeds between 15 and
20 miles per hour. These speeds in east Arkansas are only slightly below
advisory levels...so an advisory cannot be ruled out based on
additional guidance. Southerly flow and a high sun angle will
result in a dramatic warmup tomorrow...highs may be 35 degrees or
more above morning lows topping out in the middle to upper 60s across
most of the area.
Fair conditions are expected across the midsouth through Friday. A
strong storm system will move from west to east well to our north
Tuesday night. A weak cold front trailing this feature will bring
slightly cooler air to the midsouth Wednesday. Very little moisture
will be in place ahead of this feature so no precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will rebound Thursday and Friday resulting
in highs in the low to middle 70s area wide by Friday.
Friday night into Saturday another low will track to our north
along the same path of the first low. However this time...moisture
levels will be higher. As a result scattered rain showers. There
doesn't look to be much upper level support to support strong or
storms. Will advertise 40 probability of precipitation as the front passes Friday night
and 20's and 30s for the remainder of the weekend as guidance
keeps US on the southern edge of high pressure with west flow
High temperatures behind the front will be in the middle to upper 60s
Saturday...in the middle to upper 50s Sunday and near 60 Monday. Lows
will be in the low to middle 40s Sunday and middle to upper 30s Monday.
18z taf cycle
Low ceilings will move across the forecast area this afternoon and
are expected to exit tup around 23z. Weak pressure ridge moves
across the region tonight. Tempo fog was placed in the forecast
for jbr...tup and mkl from 08z-12z. Tuesday morning return
southerly flow will increase.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 38 67 45 64 / 0 0 10 10
mkl 30 67 44 62 / 0 0 10 10
jbr 34 65 41 61 / 0 0 10 10
tup 33 69 45 67 / 0 0 10 10