Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
523 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
updated for 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
.Heavy rain possible over parts of the midsouth this Holiday
A departing high to the east is providing a mild southerly breeze
across the midsouth this afternoon. Expect the mild and dry
weather to continue for most of the area through Thanksgiving
A slow moving cold front over the central US will move into the
midsouth by Friday and slowly advance across the area over the
weekend. A prolonged period of rain will accompany the front
with heavy rain possible Friday and Saturday. The heaviest rain
will occur northwest of Memphis where a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for Friday through Saturday. An upper shortwave will push
the front quicker to the east Sunday as a surface low rides along
the boundary. Expect the widespread rain to end from west to east
by late Sunday. Temperatures will be slowly dropping through the
Uncertainty remains early next week as a potential shortwave
provides a lingering chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Models
disagree on the strength of the shortwave. Expect drier weather by
Wednesday. Temperatures will be seasonably cool early next week.
VFR this period...even though there is a small window for MVFR
ceilings at jbr tonight. A few light showers will reach the jbr
vicinity tomorrow...but the biggest aviation concern for all sites
will be winds. Speeds tonight will increase from 7-10 kts to
10-14kts with higher gusts also developing by middle morning.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night for Clay-Craighead-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
Tennessee...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night for lake.