Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
318 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015
diurnally driven thunderstorms are ongoing across the midsouth.
Convective temperatures are in the 82-84 range very close to
current readings...so additional development is likely over the
next few hours.
Over the next 12 hours or so a midlevel trough will shift out of
the plains and begin to influence the weather across the midsouth.
As a result...convection is expected to be much more widespread
late tonight and tomorrow. Storms will likely develop and or move
into the area around midnight...increasing in coverage and
intensity during the morning...and becoming thermodynamically
enhanced tomorrow afternoon. Widespread severe storms are not
expected...but are certainly possible. Damaging wind would be the
most likely Mode of severe weather. Due to the recent rain and
with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches...localized
flooding due to heavy rain is also a concern. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler over the weekend due to lower thicknesses and
abundant cloud cover. We currently have highs in the low 80s...but
we may see areas struggle to get out of the 70s where cloud cover
is thickest and or showers/thunderstorms keep conditions from
warming. The trough axis should be oriented along the Mississippi
River Sunday. As a result...expect the highest rain/thunderstorm
chances in west Tennessee and north Mississippi.
Guidance is in poor agreement next week...the European model (ecmwf) is more
progressive while the GFS pinches off the trough developing a
cutoff low to the south of our area. Temperatures should be
slightly cooler than normal early next week...and rain chances
For the middle into the later part of the work week...temperatures
will trend warmer...back into the low to middle 80s. Guidance is
in poor agreement...but at this time it does not look like any
organized weather systems are in the works after midweek.
18z taf update
Ceilings should become VFR outside of thunderstorms through this
evening at all sites...with temporary reductions to ceilings/visibilities in
storms. Storms should diminish this evening with loss of daytime
heating. Winds will remain light from the south/southeast today.
Lower stratus will again build later tonight with IFR ceilings
expected at all sites except kjbr. Showers and thunderstorms will
also redevelop at kjbr and potentially kmem later tonight and
continue into Saturday morning. Southerly winds should increase
later tonight to around 10 kts.
Scattered storms again can be expected across the taf sites on
Saturday morning with slowly improving ceilings. South/southwest winds
will remain brisk at 10 kts or greater.