Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
351 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
The upper level ridge of high pressure that has persisted across
the southwestern U.S. And Southern Plains over the past few days
will continue to build eastward through the remainder of the
weekend into the first part of next week. Surface high pressure
over the middle south today will slowly move east of the area by
Monday. Increasingly hot temperatures with seasonably comfortable
humidity levels will continue through the weekend along with dry
weather conditions. Humidity values will increase early next week
as southerly flow on the west side of surface high pressure
advects low level Gulf moisture northward. Hot and humid weather
for Monday and Tuesday should push heat index values back above
100 degrees...although most locations should remain below heat
advisory criteria. No rain is expected through at least next
The upper ridge should break down by the middle of next week as a
significant shortwave disturbance moves from the northern High
Plains southeastward across the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys.
This should support increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday. A surface
frontal boundary should also drop south into the area and stall
out through the end of the week. Another series of upper level
disturbances will move through northwest flow aloft and bring
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end
of next week.
The front should gradually be forced southward by convection on
Friday into southern portions of the middle south by next weekend.
Convective chances should remain in proximity to the front across
southern sections with slightly drier conditions pushing into
northern areas bringing an end to most convective chances in these
locations. Temperatures should be held to near or slightly below
normal through the end of next week and weekend due to increased
cloud cover and rain chances.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will occur through the period. Light winds
overnight...N/NE on Saturday 5-10 kts.