Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
654 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015
Updated for 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 246 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/
Clouds are slowly increasing across the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to middle 70s. A
few showers are starting to move into the forecast area this
afternoon but so far most area have remained dry.
A warm front extends across central Louisiana through South
Alabama and into North Florida. This warm front is expected to
lift rapidly north tonight through the forecast area. As it does
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along
and ahead of it. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with
lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s.
On Sunday as the warm front lifts out of the region shower and
thunderstorm activity will decrease some with the best chance of
rain over northern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side with highs in the middle to upper 70s.
A cold front will be moving across the central and Southern Plains
Sunday morning and will enter western Arkansas by Sunday
afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of this front and some of this activity may reach western
sections of the forecast area by late Sunday afternoon. Some of
these thunderstorms could become severe with large hail and
damaging winds as the main threats. The cold front will move
through the forecast area Sunday night with more showers and
thunderstorms expected. There will still be a chance of severe
weather Sunday night with large hail and damaging winds remaining
the main threats.
The cold front will be east of the region Monday with rain ending
across the forecast area during the morning hours. Cooler and
drier air will make its way into the region on Monday with
temperatures returning to near normal levels. By Monday night
skies will be mostly clear which will allow temperatures to drop
into the 40s by Tuesday morning. Tuesday will remain dry with
highs around 70.
Another cold front will make its way toward the forecast area on
Wednesday with some scattered showers expected ahead of the front.
This front is expected to stall over north Mississippi on Thursday
so there will still be a chance of rain for Wednesday night and
The front will start to slowly move back north as a warm front on
Friday and remain just north of the forecast area next Saturday.
This will keep a chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area
for Friday through next Saturday. Temperatures will remain close
to normal levels for Wednesday through next Saturday.
00z taf cycle
VFR conds at all sites at this time. Conds will deteriorate this evening
as low pressure tracks across the area and widespread rain showers
develop. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms and rain showers but for now think
that coverage is not enough to warrant thunderstorms in the vicinity at the terminals. Ceilings
will drop to MVFR and eventually IFR overnight. The system will
push east Sun morning and conds will improve back to VFR by noon.
Looks like the main impact from the next system will occur after
this taf period.
Winds will be light overnight shifting to west-southwest and become gusty on