Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
516 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015
Previous discussion... /issued 309 PM CST Friday Jan 30 2015/
High pressure will remain over the midsouth tonight. Although...high
clouds will stream into the area from the west. Looking at latest
satellite images...the clouds look pretty thick so will go with
mostly cloudy wording by midnight for much of the area. Have
bumped up lows slightly due to the expected thick cloud cover.
Expect readings in the middle 20s to lower 30s.
The high will shift east allowing winds to turn around to the
south. This will allow highs to get into the lower to middle 50s in
much of the area even with an expected increase in cloud cover
ahead of the next system.
A low pressure system with a trailing cold front will track from
eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday
night. Widespread showers will spread into the midsouth late
Saturday night into Sunday. There could be some rumbles of
thunder across the southern half of the midsouth on Sunday. Lows
Saturday night will be in the lower to middle 40s while highs on
Saturday will be in the 50s.
Lingering showers will occur across areas east of the Mississippi
River Sunday night but expect precipitation to come to an end
before any precipitation type issues would occur. However can/T rule out
flurries occurring after midnight across the area but would the
flurries will not amount to anything. Much colder air will filter
into the area behind the front. Highs on Monday will stay in the
High pressure will quickly build into the area Monday night
before shifting east on Tuesday. Expect highs to return to the
upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday due to winds turning around to
By Tuesday night...a low pressure system will begin developing
along the Gulf Coast while a cold front approaches from the north.
Models are not in the best agreement with these two systems. The
12z European model (ecmwf) has the surface low further south in the Gulf thus never
brings any precipitation northward into north Mississippi on Wednesday
while the GFS does. Meanwhile...the GFS is slower with bringing
the cold front through the midsouth than the 12z European model (ecmwf) which
brings the front through Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night.
As a result...trying to go with a blend thus carrying 20 probability of precipitation
Wednesday...Wednesday night...and Thursday. Most likely it will
either be Wednesday into Wednesday night or Wednesday night into
Thursday. Precipitation type could be an issue as Arctic air plunges into
the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Even if precipitation type
becomes an issue...quantitative precipitation forecast will be very light so it will not amount to
High pressure will build into the area behind the front and will
remain over the area through the end of the week.
Aviation...00z taf cycle
VFR conds will prevail with increasing middle and high clouds late
tonight. Winds from north to northeast around 5 knots
tonight...shifting east to southeast tomorrow.