Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
258 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014
Skies are partly cloudy over much of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to around
90 degrees. The cold front is beginning to move into the forecast
area at this time. Some isolated showers have developed over
portions of north Mississippi and are moving southeast. Most of
this activity should end by late this afternoon. Behind the cold
front is cooler and much drier air. This will make for a dry and
cooler night with lows Monday morning in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
High pressure will be in place over the region on Monday which
will keep things dry and cooler with highs mainly in the 70s.
Monday night will be the coolest night of the forecast period with
lows Tuesday morning in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
By Tuesday...the surface high will move east of the region. As it
does winds will begin to shift to the south bringing in somewhat
warmer air to the forecast area. Temperatures will begin to get
closer to normal levels and will stay that through Friday.
Meanwhile an upper level ridge will start to build into the
forecast area as well giving US a dry week as well.
The models try to develop a weak upper level low over southeast
Texas Friday night and then bring it slowly northward next weekend.
As this occurs it will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the
forecast for Saturday and next Sunday.
18z taf cycle (21/18z-22/18z)
Mostly VFR conditions will occur through the period. A cold front
will move through the midsouth this afternoon and early evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and early evening with the cold front
interacting with daytime heating mainly along and south of
Interstate 40. Continued to mention thunderstorms in the vicinity at kmem...kmkl...and ktup.
Skies clearing tonight. Winds becoming northwest 10-12 this
afternoon and occasionally gusty. Winds tonight becoming north 5-8 kts.
Winds Monday morning NE 9-11 kts.