Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1124 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Much of the midsouth is currently stuck between two weather
systems. The first is an upper trough that is pushing across north
central Arkansas at this time. An area of mainly showers is
accompanying the trough. However the area is quickly dying out
expect only Randolph and Lawrence counties in northeast Arkansas
will see any rain. Meanwhile...an easterly wave in moving through
Alabama. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently
developing across northwest Alabama. This line will move slowly
northwestward and could impact portions of northeast Mississippi
this afternoon. Will bump up probability of precipitation across this area.
Otherwise...rest of the forecast looks good. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 440 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
Updated to increase the probability of precipitation for today to 40 percent across
portions of northeast Arkansas that includes Randolph...Lawrence and
extreme western portions of Clay County. The hrrr model indicates
showers spreading into this area this morning. Radars already
indicate showers just to the northwest gradually slipping to the
Discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
Early this morning...temperatures were a little warmer than in
recent days ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Middle and
high level clouds stretched from northwest Tennessee and the MO bootheel
into northeast Arkansas.
The midsouth will be affected by two systems the next couple of
days...one an upper level trough approaching from the northwest
and another an upper level low along the northern Gulf Coast that
will lift northeastward. Both of these features are fairly weak.
The latest guidance indicates higher probability of precipitation especially for tonight
and Sunday than the earlier guidance...did raise the probability of precipitation some but
confidence is not high enough to go greater than 30 percent probability of precipitation
at this time. Later forecasts may need to raise the probability of precipitation in some locations
during this timeframe.
For today...an upper level trough from the Great Lakes to the
Central Plains will move southeastward approaching northeast Arkansas.
Indicated a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for a small
portion of northeast Arkansas today. Meanwhile...an upper level low
will be located along the MS and Alabama coast. This low will help to
push more moist and unstable air into the midsouth from the east.
Continued to indicate a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
for northeast MS and the Tennessee River valley of west Tennessee. Clouds will
be on the increase across the midsouth in association with both of
these systems. Temperatures will be seasonably warm.
For tonight...the upper level trough will push into the midsouth
from the northwest with the upper low along the central Gulf Coast
moving northeastward into central Alabama. Indicated a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for most of the region.
On Sunday...the upper level low over central Alabama will continue to
push northeastward with a weak broad upper level trough over the
midsouth. Continued to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Clouds are expected to decrease from the southwest.
Monday...an upper level trough will be west of the midsouth while
upper level ridging will be to the east with weak southerly flow
surface and aloft across the region. There will be enough moisture
and instability for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
It will feel like Summer with plenty of sunshine boosting
temperatures to near normal readings.
Tuesday...the upper level ridge is forecast to build across the
midsouth from the east suppressing most convection. Kept probability of precipitation
below mentionable levels.
Toward the middle and end of next week...increasing moisture is
forecast to spread into the region from the southeast as upper
level ridging weakens. This will result in a return of a small
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will
remain seasonably warm to hot with no cold frontal passages
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light south-southeast