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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
238 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Discussion...

Minor changes from day to day through the forecast with slowly
warming temperatures through Saturday...

Similar to yesterday...the upper level pattern largely remains
unchanged. At the surface...a high pressure system continues to
progress east off the eastern Seaboard with Lee side troughing
across the Central Plains. The middle-south will experience
persistent south-southwesterly flow over the next few days
supporting very warm temperatures and dry conditions.

With 850 mb temperatures consistently in the 11-13 c range through
the forecast period...highs in the low to middle 80s are forecast
through the period with a slow warming into the weekend. Guidance
supports this warming as well so was a little bit more aggressive
with middle and a few upper 80s late this week. No precipitation
is forecast through late week as the trend in delaying precipitation
continues.

In the long term...the large scale pattern does undergo some
amplification with longwave troughing west and ridging east. This
structure will maintain itself but slowly progress east with time.
It appears mild conditions will continue with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more likely with the approach of the
longwave trough by next weekend. The trend has been to slow this
progression so until this pattern shows more consistency from
model run to model run...opted to not be very aggressive with
precipitation chances.

Tvt

&&

Aviation...

18z tafs

VFR will prevail through the period...with southwesterly winds
occasionally gusting at jbr this afternoon.

Pwb



&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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