Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
329 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014
A warm front is beginning to surge northward into the midsouth.
The front is roughly located from Clarksdale to Aberdeen
Mississippi. Rain continues to fall over eastern Arkansas...the
Missouri bootheel and portions of northwest Tennessee. A break in
the rain has developed across southwest Tennessee and much of
north Mississippi. A few breaks in the clouds area also occurring
in this hole. Warm front will continue to surge northward tonight
as the associated surface low tracks northeastward along the I-44
corridor in Missouri. Rain will come to an end behind the warm
front...except for possibly northeast Arkansas due to being closer
to the surface low track. Would also not be surprised to see more
breaks in the clouds develop around sunset. However...low clouds
will spread back as the cold front approaches from the west around
the middle to late evening hours so overall expect cloudy
conditions. Chances for showers may occur ahead of the cold front
with best chances occurring along the Arkansas/MO and Kentucky/Tennessee borders.
Also can/T rule out a few elevated thunderstorms occurring across
northeast Arkansas early on in the evening due to the proximity of
the surface low but storms should stay well below strong to severe
Bigger story tonight will be the strong winds behind the warm
front. Southerly winds will increase to around 20-25 miles per hour with high
gusts this evening. The strong winds will continue into the
overnight hours into Monday morning. Direction will change to the
northwest behind the cold front...but speeds will remain around
20-25 miles per hour with higher gusts due to the tight pressure gradient.
Will issue a Wind Advisory beginning at 6 PM through noon on
Monday for the entire midsouth.
Clouds may be slow to clear on Monday especially across eastern
areas near the Tennessee River. With the clouds and strong northwest
winds ushering in colder air...highs will range from the upper 40s
to the upper 50s.
High pressure will build into the area Monday night through
Thanksgiving night. Would not be surprised to see some fog develop
Monday night due to skies clearing out...light winds...and a
moist ground. Highs will generally range from the upper 40s to the
upper 50s through the period. A reinforcing cold front will move
through on Wednesday but will come through the area dry.
Thanksgiving will be sunny but cool again with highs ranging from
the upper 40s to upper 50s.
By Thanksgiving night...the surface high will shift east finally
allowing winds to turn back around to the south. The southerly
winds will bring a warming trend to the area for the end of the
week into the weekend. Both the 12z GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf) indicate a
cold front will approach and possibly move into the midsouth over
the weekend. The front will bring chances for showers. The models
diverge on how far south the front will go before stalling out so
hard to pinpoint what temperatures will be especially on Sunday.
18z taf cycle
Widespread rain and IFR conditions have spread across the
midsouth. Rain will end from SW to NE late this afternoon as
system lifts through. There is a small chance of a thunderstorms and rain at ktup
but potential too low to mention. Conditions will lift to MVFR as
the rain ends. However expect low clouds to remain overnight into
Monday morning except they may clear for a short time at ktup
later this evening before filling back in. Winds will veer from
the southeast to the south-southwest at 10-12 kts by this evening and increase
markedly as the cold front moves through with gusts to 30 kts.
Arkansas...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for Clay-
MO...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for
MS...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for
Tennessee...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for