Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
255 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Light snow flurries/snow grains are falling in west Tennessee as a
weak streamwise vorticity maximum tracks out of central Missouri into
middle Tennessee. Soundings support any precipitation falling as
snow for the remainder of the afternoon into the overnight hours.
Surface dew points remain in the single digits across the
midsouth...with temperatures ranging from the middle 20s to middle
30s. As a result...precipitation should remain very light...and
little to no accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the
weekend...warming to near normal early next week. By midweek...we
may see some of the first above normal temperatures that we have
seen in quite a while across the midsouth. It looks like Saturday
and Sunday will be the coldest period in the upcoming week or so.
There may be some middle to upper teens Saturday and Sunday mornings
with highs each day ranging from the low 30s to low 40s.
Synoptically we will remain under northwest flow for the remainder
of the work week into next weekend. At the surface...high
pressure will gradually build in from the north. The surface
high will remain centered to our north...but still influence our
weather through at least Saturday...keeping US dry and cool.
Sunday afternoon into early Monday...northwest flow will break
down across the plains resulting in more zonal flow across the
midsouth. The surface high to our north will shift east resulting
in strong southerly flow across the midsouth. As a
result...moisture will increase quickly across the region. A
surface low will track across the Central Plains into north
Missouri Sunday night. Temperatures will fall into the low to
middle 30s Sunday night. Rain showers will likely transition to
snow across most of west Tennessee...the Missouri bootheel and
east Arkansas...with a rain snow mix in north Mississippi.
All precipitation should transition to rain Monday as temperatures
climb into the 40s.
18z taf cycle
VFR conds will prevail throughout the cycle at all terminals. The
only exception is kmkl where tempo included for the likelihood of
light snow this afternoon and evening...lowering ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR conds. Else...conds will continue VFR. Westerly winds today
will turn southerly by this evening and will be from the east
northeast late in the cycle as a surface high center moves to the