Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1203 am CDT Sat may 30 2015
Update... /issued 906 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures mainly in the 70s. Most of the thunderstorms that
developed over the forecast area earlier have moved out of the
region. Another area of thunderstorms is moving slowly east across
central Arkansas and should move into western sections of the
forecast area overnight. Current forecast looks good so no updates
are needed at this time.
Discussion... /issued 647 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Diurnally driven thunderstorms are ongoing across the midsouth.
Convective temperatures are in the 82-84 range very close to
current readings...so additional development is likely over the
next few hours.
Over the next 12 hours or so a midlevel trough will shift out of
the plains and begin to influence the weather across the midsouth.
As a result...convection is expected to be much more widespread
late tonight and tomorrow. Storms will likely develop and or move
into the area around midnight...increasing in coverage and
intensity during the morning...and becoming thermodynamically
enhanced tomorrow afternoon. Widespread severe storms are not
expected...but are certainly possible. Damaging wind would be the
most likely Mode of severe weather. Due to the recent rain and
with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches...localized
flooding due to heavy rain is also a concern. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler over the weekend due to lower thicknesses and
abundant cloud cover. We currently have highs in the low 80s...but
we may see areas struggle to get out of the 70s where cloud cover
is thickest and or showers/thunderstorms keep conditions from
warming. The trough axis should be oriented along the Mississippi
River Sunday. As a result...expect the highest rain/thunderstorm
chances in west Tennessee and north Mississippi.
Guidance is in poor agreement next week...the European model (ecmwf) is more
progressive while the GFS pinches off the trough developing a
cutoff low to the south of our area. Temperatures should be
slightly cooler than normal early next week...and rain chances
For the middle into the later part of the work week...temperatures
will trend warmer...back into the low to middle 80s. Guidance is
in poor agreement...but at this time it does not look like any
organized weather systems are in the works after midweek.
06z taf cycle
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will gradually move into the
region from the west overnight in association with an upper level
trough. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region
Saturday as the upper level trough continues eastward. Ceilings
lowering to IFR by late tonight at kmem...kmkl and ktup...MVFR at
kjbr. Ceilings becoming MVFR outside showers and thunderstorms
across the entire area after 30/17z. Winds tonight southerly 7-10
kts. Winds Saturday SW increasing to near 12 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Winds turning more westerly at kjbr during the afternoon.
After 31/00z...VFR conditions will occur as shower and thunderstorms
move east of the area. Winds turning to west and northwest 6-8 kts.