Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
611 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015
Update for aviation discussion below.
Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015/
Heavy rain still expected over portions of the midsouth during the
Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle
60s. A large area of rain is moving across central and western
sections of Arkansas at this time.
This rain is associated with a cold front which currently extends
from northeast Illinois through southwest Missouri and into north
central Texas. As the front moves slowly east today the rain will
slide slowly east and effect portions of northeast Arkansas. Since
the front will not move into the region today...temperatures will
remain on the warm side with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
By tonight the cold front will moving into central Arkansas so
there will be a better chance of rain over more of the forecast
area. Temperatures will remain on the mild side with lows Saturday
morning from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees.
On Saturday the cold front will start to make its way into western
sections of the forecast area with more rain expected.
Temperatures will vary depending on which side of the front you
are with highs ahead of the front in the middle to upper 60s while
behind the front highs will only be in the middle 50s. The cold front
will not move much Saturday night with more rain expected across
the forecast area. Rainfall totals could reach 3 to 5 inches in
the areas where the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.
The front will remain nearly stationary on Sunday so more rain is
expected across much of the forecast area for both Sunday and
Sunday night. By Monday the cold front will start to move slowly
east but there will still be a chance of rain for much of the
forecast area for Monday and Monday night.
By Tuesday...the cold front will finally start moving out of the
forecast area with the threat of rain slowly ending from west to
east. On Wednesday...the front will be east of the region with
only a small chance of rain possible over extreme eastern sections
of the forecast area. This small chance of rain will continue for
Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures will drop to below
normal levels after the cold front moves out of the region.
A cold front will slowly drift eastward towards jbr during this
taf period. Short term models are having a hard time with the
eastward progression of rain across the region for this
afternoon...so confidence is low at the moment. The best chance
for rain on site will occur at jbr...with MVFR and IFR conds
possible beginning as early as 27/21z...as heavy and persistent
showers move into the region.
Elsewhere...widespread rain will likely hold off until after
28/00z. Conditions at mem...mkl...and jbr are expected to
deteriorate after 28/06z as fog and rain inhibit visibilities and
ceilings lower. Winds will be from the south 10-14 kts...gusting
to around 20 kts this afternoon. The cold front is expected to
move into jbr around 28/06z...shifting winds to the north.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Dunklin-
Tennessee...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for lake.