Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
259 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014
Currently...a broad upper level trough covers the eastern U.S. While
a weak surface low is located near the Texas/Louisiana border. Weak
overrunning was resulting in light rain showers across east
central Arkansas and north Mississippi. Elsewhere skies are
cloudy. Temperatures range from around 60 in Paris to the lower 70s in
Today...weak low pressure will continue to move southeast toward the
northern Gulf Coast while the broad upper trough will persist.
Expect below normal temperatures once again with highs in the lower
to middle 80s. There will be a chance of showers south of I-40 today
with lesser chances to the north. Models are showing a little more
instability this afternoon which may be realized if some sun can
break out. This could lead to a few thunderstorms.
Tonight and Saturday...rain chances will begin to tail off as the
upper trough pushes east and the surface low dissipates along the
Gulf Coast. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s with highs
climbing into the upper 80s thanks to some more sun.
Sunday through Wednesday...another upper level disturbance pushing
through the northwest flow aloft may help to ignite some showers
and thunderstorms across north Mississippi Sunday afternoon. Behind
that disturbance the upper ridge to the west will try to nose in
early next week through the middle of the week. Meanwhile surface
high pressure will push into the Ohio Valley resulting in drier
northeast flow at the surface. This pattern will result in high
temperatures closer to normal with comfortable humidity levels and
dewpoints in the 60s. Overnight lows should be a little cooler
than normal thanks to the drier air mass.
Thursday...high pressure will move east and low pressure will
start organizing over the plains resulting in a return to a more
humid southerly flow and a slight chance for showers and
06z taf cycle
Light rain associated with an upper level disturbance will keep at
least sprinkles around through the remainder of the night for kjbr
and kmem. Visibility restrictions should be minimal if any.
Overnight...fog may develop at jbr...mkl..and tup...but most
likely at jbr. Visibility may decrease to MVFR. Winds will be
light overnight. Ceilings should remain VFR. Wind direction will vary
tomorrow. Chances of thunderstorms will increase tomorrow
afternoon but not enough to mention in tafs.