Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1145 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016
updated to add 18z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 1028 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
At 10 am around the region winds were generally from the
northwest with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s from
north to south. Clouds over northeast reaches of the area will aid
in keeping temperatures a bit cooler in those locales
today...while sun in areas south and current trends indicate highs
may be a degree or two warmer there. Thus bumped up sky cover
north and temperatures south based on these trends. Otherwise the
forecast is on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
dry and cold conditions will continue today and tomorrow as an
area of high pressure shifts from the northern plains south over
Iowa and then into the southern Great Lakes area. The midsouth
will remain on the southern edge of this feature...but close
enough to suppress any precipitation and also cloud cover.
Aloft...northwest flow will remain in place...with slight ridging
building in from the west today and tomorrow.
Temperatures will remain cold. Current readings are in the 30s
across most of the midsouth. Morning lows are expected to NE near
to slightly below freezing across most of the area. Highs today
will be in the middle 40s to low 50s...but mostly in the 30s
The high will shift over the Ohio Valley late Saturday into early
Sunday and southerly flow will return to the midsouth. Flow aloft
will turn zonal as a trough shifts across the northern plains. A
surface low and trailing cold front will track out of the plains
then across Wisconsin late Sunday into early Monday. As the front
approaches the midsouth...rain showers...mixed with wintry precipitation
will become likely. Rain may start in east Arkansas...the Missouri
bootheel and northwest Tennessee before sunset Sunday. Its a bit
early to have high confidence in precipitation type late Sunday into
early Monday...but at this time sleet or freezing rain looks more
likely than snow across northern portions of the midsouth. Highs
Monday are expected to climb into the 40s or even low 50s...so any
wintry precipitation should change over to rain fairly quickly
Monday. Monday night...there could be a brief period of a wintry
mix before sunrise as moisture shifts into middle Tennessee.
It looks dry and warmer Tuesday through midweek. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal Tuesday and above normal for the
remainder of the work week. We may even see afternoon highs in the
60s by the end of the work week.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected through the period. Northwest/north-northwest winds averaging
between 10-12 kts expected to veer north/north-northeast tonight.