Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1231 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015
Updated for 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 905 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
Skies remain mostly cloudy across much of the forecast area this
evening with temperatures mainly in the 70s. A few showers remain
over eastern sections of the forecast area and are slowly
decreasing in coverage. Some additional showers and thunderstorms
could develop overnight mainly over portions of north Mississippi.
Will update forecast to remove some evening wording with no big
Previous discussion... /issued 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
Short term...complex forecast the next 12 hours with regards to
rain chances. Current upper low center is dropping in from
northern Arkansas...while mvc over north Mississippi is moving
east northeast. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms have
formed out ahead of both features with reports and pictures of
cold air funnels over the northern Delta counties. Rainfall so far
today has stayed under ffg but clearing over northwest Mississippi
is worrisome that heavier storms may develop in the next hour or
so...moving east then over saturated ground. For now forecast
confidence is not high of this unfolding...but plan is to hold on
to the Flash Flood Watch through 00z this evening. Tonight the
best focus for training storms will shift into central Alabama.
Current convection near the low center should wane with the loss
of heating...with the low center shifting east of the Memphis area
by midnight. So evening 4th of July activities should
improve...especially along and west of the Mississippi River.
Overnight partial clearing should allow for patchy fog across the
west...while more cloud cover and rain chances remain in the east.
Sunday and Monday...weak upper ridging will push into the
midsouth behind the low. Low level moisture will remain
sufficient for diurnally driven storms...but coverage should be
more isolated. Temperatures will climb back to near normal with
upper level 80s/low 90s. Winds will start off light from the
south but by Monday afternoon an approaching cold front will
bump up the gradient over the Delta Region.
Tuesday through Thursday...the front will reach the northern
midsouth and stall...being the focus for a better chance for
showers and storms...along with the threat for more organized
activity. High and low temperatures will see little change.
Friday and Saturday...long range GFS and Euro solutions show
the front lifting back to the north and washing out as the
Bermuda high slides westward. This will weaken the upper level
winds over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley and shift the
storm track back across the northern plains and Great Lakes...a
more typical Summer like weather regime. Temperatures will warm
slightly and convection will be isolated at best.
06z taf cycle
Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions developing overnight in stratus
and fog with LIFR conditions likely at ktup. Conditions improving
after sunrise and becoming predominately VFR by early Sunday
afternoon. However...isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing
mainly east of the MS river Sunday afternoon with lower conditions
possible...mentioned thunderstorms in the vicinity at kmem...kmkl and ktup. Winds tonight
light. Winds Sunday becoming S-SW 6-8 kts...decreasing to 6 kts or
less after 06/00z.