Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
632 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Update...
updated for 12z aviation discussion.

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Previous discussion... /issued 443 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/

Discussion...
current satellite shows some clouds over the middle-south associated
with an upper level trough that will move across the region today
and much deeper clouds to the southeast associated with a surface
low in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile...radar shows some widely
scattered showers across the area. Most of these showers are light
or even sprinkles...however...a couple spots have some short
periods of moderate rain. These scattered showers will continue
throughout the day as the upper trough moves to the east.

By tonight a high pressure system will push into the area and
bring dry weather through early Monday. Along with the dry
weather the temperatures will slightly warm each day to near 80
degrees on Sunday and Monday.

A weak frontal system and weak upper trough will move through the
middle-south on Monday night...not very confident on the timing of
the this system as it is weak and models suggest it may move
through as early as Monday and then linger some on Tuesday. My
thought is best chance is Monday night...hwoever...left probability of precipitation in
from Monday through Tuesday.

By Tuesday night a high builds into the area and the middle-south
will be dry and warm...with temperatures above normal for the rest
of the forecast period. Tlsjr

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Aviation...
12z taf cycle

VFR with scattered light showers in vicinity during the first
half. Tup may see some activity on station. Clearing skies tonight
with patchy fog possible at mkl and tup. Easterly winds 0f 5-8
kts...becoming light and variable or calm after sunset.

Jab

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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
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