Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1134 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014
Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 835 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/
High pressure continues to build into the midsouth tonight. Light
winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop quickly
this evening. Will update to lower lows across portions of the
area. Expect many locations to be in the middle to upper 40s by
Discussion... /issued 154 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014/
The beginning of fall will offer some great weather across the
At early afternoon...temperatures were in the 70s with full sunshine
and a light to moderate northeast wind. High pressure was centered
over the middle MS River Valley.
For tonight...low temperatures will drop into the 40s across much of
west Tennessee outside the Memphis area to the lower 50s elsewhere. High
pressure will move eastward to the Ohio River valley with a dry
northeast low level wind flow continuing across the midsouth. Upper
level ridging will gradually spread into the region from the west.
Another great weather day is in store for the region Tuesday.
Following the cool morning...afternoon temperatures will peak in the
70s across most of the region possibly reaching 80 degrees across
the extreme southern portions of north MS. Surface high pressure
will extend from the Middle Atlantic States to the midsouth.
Sunshine will be plentiful once again with northeast winds
continuing along with low afternoon relative humidity.
Not much change is seen in the weather pattern through
Friday...other than gradual warming. High temperatures will climb
into the lower and middle 80s across the entire area by the end of
the work week although nights will continue on the cool side with
the low levels of the atmosphere remaining dry.
Rain free and mild weather is forecast to continue during the day
Saturday. There will be an increase in high level clouds as an upper
level trough begins to develop near or over the midsouth. Moisture
will push in from the south Saturday night...especially by late
night...signally a change to a wet pattern for a couple of days. A
chance of showers will spread into north MS and east central Arkansas
Models indicate moisture continuing to increase over the midsouth
Sunday with showers and thunderstorms increasing as the upper level
trough moves across the area. Raised the probability of precipitation a little during this
time period...but kept them in chance category for now. If current
model trends persist...these probability of precipitation will need to be increased in later
forecasts. The upper level trough is forecast to move to the east by
Monday or Monday night with rain chances diminishing from the west.
VFR with some patchy fog possible at kmkl late tonight. Light NE
wind overnight increasing to 8-10 kts Tuesday morning.