Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1253 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Update...
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 746 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Discussion...
isolated thunderstorms have weakened to showers and continue to
dissipate. We should be rain free in an hour or so and
no additional development is expected overnight. Due to localized
increase in ground moisture from storms...patchy fog may
develop...but will probably not be widespread. Morning lows should
be in the middle 60s to near 70.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Discussion...
relatively normal early/middle Summer weather to prevail across the
midsouth through the next seven days.
Weak northwest flow aloft will prevail through late Thursday. 12z NAM
model depicts little to no nocturnal thunderstorm potential from
southern Kansas into the midsouth tonight...in the wake of a southward
moving mesoscale convective system over north and central Texas. GFS failed to initialize
this mesoscale convective system and appears a little noisier with convective initiation
over the Central Plains early this evening.
For the tonight period... will maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms
into the early evening...mainly along and north of the i40corridor.
Given the weak shear...severe threat will be limited and thunderstorm
coverage should decrease toward sunset.
A strong upper level subtropical height ridge over Texas will extend
northeast into the Ozarks by Friday. A weak...nearly stationary
upper low/shear axis over Alabama/Georgia will help organize diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms... a few of which will likely extend into northeast
MS. Rain chances will lower deeper into the ridge over eastern Arkansas.
For the weekend periods...GFS and European model (ecmwf) models indicate the upper
low will weaken...but likely not sufficiently so to preclude
mentionable daytime rain chances east of the MS river. Early
next week rain chances will be diurnally enhanced...with a few
thunderstorms possible into the early evening. Afternoon temperatures
will average near or slightly above normal for late June.
Pwb
&&
Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the forecast
period. Some fog may develop overnight especially in the kmkl area
where visibilities could drop to MVFR levels. Winds will remain
light and variable...tonight...southerly tomorrow...around 5 kts.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 93 73 91 73 / 20 10 30 20
mkl 89 65 91 68 / 30 10 30 20
jbr 91 70 92 71 / 30 10 30 20
tup 91 68 91 70 / 20 10 30 20
&&
Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
