Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1124 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
Aviation discussion updated for 06z tafs below...
Previous discussion... /issued 915 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/
clear skies...light northeast winds and temperatures in the 30s prevailed
across the midsouth at 9 PM. Clear skies will continue through the
night...as surface winds gradually veer to the east/southeast.
A few forecast updates were made this evening...with adjustments
to sky condition and overnight min temperatures.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/
clear skies and dry conditions have resulted in another pleasant
midwinter day across the midsouth. Current temperatures are in the
low to middle 50s across most of the region...highs may climb
another degree...but I don't expect to see any location making it
to the 60 degree mark this afternoon. Tomorrow and Thursday should
be warmer...with highs in the middle 50s to low 60s.
A storm system well to our north in the Midwest and Great Lakes
will dive to the southeast into the Ohio Valley during the day
Thursday. A trailing cold front will sweep across the midsouth
Thursday. Western areas may see their warmest temperatures before
noon...with northerly wind ushering in cooler during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will remain warm enough ahead of the front to
keep any rainfall in the liquid form. However...moisture ahead of
the front will be limited...so rainfall is not expected to be
widespread. The best chance of rainfall will be in northern
portions of the midsouth early in the day...then in west
Tennessee...and north Mississippi...mainly near the Alabama state
line and Tennessee River after noon.
Behind the front...surface high pressure and a weak ridge will
build in resulting in cooler but dry conditions for at least 24
hours. Temperatures should be below normal on Friday...featuring lows
near freezing and highs in the middle 40s to near 50 degrees.
Similar temperatures are expected Saturday with another chance of
precipitation moving in from the west. If moisture arrives early
enough Saturday a few flurries or even light snow is possible in
east Arkansas...but all precipitation should change over to rain
quickly as temperatures warm. Widespread light rain is expected
Saturday through Sunday...ending early Sunday night. One quarter
to a third of an inch of rain looks like a good early prediction.
Highs Sunday should range from the low 40s to low 50s with morning
lows in the middle 30s to near 40 degrees.
Another cold front will mark the end of the precipitation Sunday
night and cooler conditions are expected early next week. As is
typical...the colder air is not expected to arrive until the
moisture has exited stage east.
06z taf set
VFR conditions expected through the valid taf period. Winds will
increase ahead of of low pressure system during the day on
Wednesday...to near 10 kts at all sites except tup. There may be a
brief window near 00z where winds decrease but a tightening
pressure gradient with the approach of the low pressure should
maintain or increase surface winds Wednesday night out of the