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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
936 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Update...evening update.

Skies are mostly cloudy over much of west Tennessee and northeast
Mississippi this evening which is a direct result of an upper level
low pressure system departing off to the south and east. The added
cloud cover is keeping temperatures mild and from cooling off as
quickly in these areas. Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle
60s near the Mississippi Delta Region with upper 50s elsewhere.

Cloud cover will decrease substantially after midnight...and clear
and calm conditions will contribute to excellent radiational cooling
across the mid-south. Low temperatures will bottom out in the
lower 50s in the metropolitan area with upper 40s expected in outlying
areas.

Have adjusted sky grids and temperatures to reflect current
conditions. Also bumped up lows for overnight a couple degrees
near the Delta area. New zones and grids will be available
shortly.

Ac3

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 634 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/

Update...

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below.

Jcl

&&

Discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/

Discussion...surface analysis this afternoon places a surface low
in the northern Gulf of Mexico near Florida while water vapor
satellite/WSR-88D VAD wind profiles indicate an upper level low
embedded within a deep upper level trough over the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Showers have been minimal at
best across the middle south this afternoon with mostly sunny skies
prevalent west of the Mississippi River and partly sunny to mostly
cloudy skies east. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT range from the
middle 60s to lower 70s across the middle south.

An upper level low/upper level trough axis located across the
lower Mississippi Valley/northern Gulf of Mexico will gradually
move east towards southern Georgia and Florida by Saturday.
Confidence in rain showers lingering across the middle south this
evening east of the Mississippi River is very low at best and as a
result kept the forecast rain free. These rain free conditions are
expected to persist into Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds
in across the region. Temperatures will rise into the middle 70s
and approach 80 degrees this weekend.

Long term models indicate another cold front embedded within
northwest flow aloft will move across the middle south Monday into
Monday night. Slowed onset of low end rain chances back to late
Sunday night west of the Mississippi River as better precipitation
and a shortwave won't arrive until Monday/Monday night. This front
is expected to gradually clear the middle south on Tuesday with
an occluding cold front arriving towards late next week. Kept low
end probability of precipitation at the end of the extended any may need to consider
adjusting upward in subsequent forecasts. Temperatures will
remain quite similar throughout the forecast with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Cjc

&&

Aviation...

00z taf cycle (19/00z-20/00z)

VFR conditions will occur through the period. Winds light tonight.
Winds Saturday NE 7-10 kts.

Jcl

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$