Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
525 am CST sun Feb 14 2016
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 315 am CST sun Feb 14 2016/
Skies are cloudy over much of the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the middle 20s to the lower
30s. A nearly stationary front currently extends from the Texas
Panhandle through central Oklahoma and into far East Texas. A
surface low is currently over the eastern Texas Panhandle.
This low is forecast to move southeast today into north central
Texas by this evening. Ahead of this low winds will become
southerly which will bring moisture northward from the Gulf. As
this moisture moves northward precipitation is expected to form
over northern sections of the forecast area this morning. With
temperatures expected to remain below freezing in northern
sections of the forecast area...wintry precipitation is expected
to fall today. Depending on the start of the precipitation some
snow...sleet or freezing rain is expected. It appears that these
areas could see up to .1 inch of freezing rain...up to .25 inch of
sleet or up to 2 inches of snow especially over portions of
Weakley and Henry counties in Tennessee. For this reason have left
Winter Weather Advisory as is. Most of the remainder of the
forecast area will see rain today as temperatures will be in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.
By tonight as the low moves east into southern Arkansas
precipitation will change over to rain in the areas that will be
experiencing winter precipitation today. Rainfall could become a
little heavier over portions of northwest Mississippi. Temperatures
will not drop too much with lows Monday in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
By Monday the low pressure system will move through the forecast
area keeping rain over much of the forecast area. Temperatures
will be warmer on Monday with highs from the upper 40s to upper
50s. By Monday night...the surface low will be east of the region
with rain ending over far southeast sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool with lows Tuesday morning
from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure will build into the region Tuesday with dry weather
and warmer temperatures as highs range from the middle 50s to lower
60s. Dry and warm weather will continue from Wednesday through
Friday as high pressure remains over the eastern U.S. A cold front
will through the forecast area Friday night and Saturday bringing
a chance of rain ahead of it.
Sites will start off VFR this period and end up LIFR/IFR. Light
patchy freezing rain remains possible early at jbr before noon.
Precipitation at all sites will remain light with good visibility
through the first half of the period...with higher rain rates and
lower visibility during the latter half. Only exception will be tup.
East winds will turn southeast/south during the day...becoming
light and variable at mem and mkl as a front sags south. Jbr to
will see winds back northeast...while tup remains southerly.
Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Clay-
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Dunklin-
Tennessee...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton