Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1244 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Discussion...

Updated for 18z aviation discussion

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1115 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/

Update...

High pressure continues to move northeast out of the Ohio Valley.
As a result...winds have turned around to the southeast.
Current temperatures reflect this as temperatures are a few
degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Current readings are in
the middle 70s to middle 80s. Highs will reach into the middle 80s to
around 90 degrees this afternoon. Current forecast looks good. No
updates are expected.

Krm

Discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/

Cool conditions for late August were being observed once again
across the midsouth early this morning with temperatures mainly in
the 50s and lower 60s. Skies were mostly clear. Surface high
pressure extended from the Ohio River valley to the midsouth.

Another nice late Summer day is in store for the midsouth today.
Temperatures will be a little warmer as winds turn to southeast.
Skies will be mostly sunny. The atmosphere will remain dry across
the region today. Upper level ridging will poke into the area
from the west. An upper level trough will be located over the
central and northern plains while an upper level low will be
situated along the northern Gulf Coast.

Over the weekend and into next week...it will feel more like
Summer as temperatures climb back to around normal and humidity
levels gradually increase with a southerly wind. On Saturday...the
upper level trough to the northwest and the upper low to the south
will merge to form a broad upper trough across the midsouth. This
will lead to a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday mainly across northeast MS into the Tennessee River valley of
west Tennessee where moisture and instability will be on the
increase.

A 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms is
expected across much of the midsouth Sunday as a broad weakness in
the upper level heights continues across the region.

Monday and Tuesday look to have probability of precipitation below mentionable levels as
upper level heights increase across the midsouth. Toward the
middle or end of the work week...an upper level low to the
southwest may help to pull enough moisture into the area to cause
small chances for showers and thunderstorms. It is possible some
moisture from Tropical Storm Erika could be pulled into our area
by the end of the week...but this is very uncertain.

Jcl

&&

Aviation...

18z taf cycle

VFR. Patchy fog possible at kmkl. South-southeast winds 5-7 kts this afternoon
diminishing tonight.

Sjm

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations