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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
631 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Update...

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Discussion...
its been a noisy night across the eastern half of the midsouth as
a line of thunderstorms developed and raced across the region
along the leading edge of a cold front. Storms developed along the
Mississippi River valley. Most locations along and east of the
river heard an hour or so of thunder and picked up a third to
three quarters of an inch of rain...although storm total radar
estimates indicate up to three inches may have accumulated along
the Alabama Tennessee state line between Hickory Valley Tennessee
and Holly Springs Mississippi. Temperatures remain in the low to
middle 60s south of Tupelo Mississippi ahead of the front...but
are in the low to middle 50s behind the front across the majority
of the midsouth. By sunrise...the front should be south of the
midsouth...and morning lows will likely be in the middle 40s to middle
50s area wide. If rain/storms aren't entirely out of the midsouth
by sunrise...they shouldn't linger more than an hour or so as the
front moves rapidly South.

Spring like temperatures are on tap for the upcoming work week.
The GFS has readings as warm as the middle 80s by Thursday...but
looking at the ensemble numbers...the operational member is the
warmest. The coolest member is in the middle 70s. Nevertheless we
will see some of the warmest temperatures we have seen in quite a
while midweek. In the meantime...highs should be near 70 for most
of the area today. We should see abundant sunshine by midday
making conditions feel even warmer. Tomorrow will be 5 degrees or
so warmer. Tuesday through Friday...weak northwest flow aloft will
transition to zonal flow. A slow moving cold front will approach
the region on Thursday. The best dynamic support for strong or
severe thunderstorms will remain well to our north...guidance has
a 100kt jet maximum from Kansas into north Missouri. However...we
could see a bit of lower level support in the form of a 30-40kt
low level jet. Capping could be an issue...but with temperatures approaching
80 degrees and dew points near 60...at least a few strong
thunderstorms are possible. The greatest potential for strong to
severe storms will be on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center
does highlight portions of the Missouri bootheel and northeast
Arkansas...areas in closer proximity to the stronger upper level
dynamics...in their day 5 convective outlook. Will not include any
mention in the severe weather potential statement just yet...there is still plenty of time to
Iron out the details before Thursday. General...less threatening
thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow and Wednesday...generally
30-40 percent coverage.

Some storms may linger into Friday...but the low level jet and the upper
dynamics should shift off to the north and east. Temperatures
will also turn cooler limiting surface instability. Next weekend
looks really nice...dry and cooler.

30

&&

Aviation...
12z taf cycle

VFR conditions should continue for much of the forecast period. Some
fog has developed in the kmkl area this morning but should exit
the area by middle morning. Winds will be light and variable for much
of the forecast period.

Ars

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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