Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
212 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015


An upper level low pressure system will slowly move from middle
Tennessee into east Tennessee today. The upper low then will
remain nearly stationary over east Tennessee through at least
Thursday. This will keep north to northeast surface winds over the
area which will funnel in cooler temperatures from the Ohio
Valley. Low clouds associated with the upper low will occur
across much of the area this morning but should break up during
the afternoon hours. Expect highs to be in the middle to upper 70s.

Tonight into Wednesday...expect the upper low to be far enough
east that any cloud cover associated with it should be confined to
areas of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River but even with
that the clouds may only occur during the evening hours before
clearing out. Would not be surprised to see some patchy fog
developing across portions of the County Warning Area late tonight. Lows will be
in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday will be a tad
warmer with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Wednesday night into upper ridge will try to
build into the area from the southwest. Models put the midsouth on
the edge of the ridge which would put the area in northwest flow
aloft. As a result...models show one disturbance after another
moving through the flow setting off an mesoscale convective system about every night from
Thursday into next weekend. Although none of the models agree with
timing and location of any of these potential thunderstorm
complexes. The NAM shows the first one potentially moving in
Thursday morning while the GFS and European model (ecmwf) keeps the mesoscale convective system way to the
north. Thus trying to pinpoint timing of these is hard to do this
far out thus will continue with a dry forecast or low 20 probability of precipitation for
now. If these complexes do move in...probability of precipitation would need to be raised
and cloud cover increased. Have kept highs in the middle to upper 80s
from Thursday into the weekend as blow off from an mesoscale convective system could keep
temperatures down even if rain from it stays to the north.

The GFS and European model (ecmwf) do seem to agree that by Sunday night into
Monday...chances for showers and thunderstorms may increase as a
frontal boundary moves into the area. However...the European model (ecmwf) wants
to push the front through the County Warning Area while the GFS keeps the front
stalled out near the Arkansas/MO and Tennessee/Kentucky borders. The GFS solution
seems more likely as the front will be running into the ridge. In
addition...climatological it is hard to get a front to clear the
entire County Warning Area by this time of year.




06z taf cycle

VFR conditions will be ending in a few hours as low clouds return
to the region bringing IFR and even some LIFR ceilings by sunrise.
Some areas of fog may also develop overnight. Ceilings will
improve some Tuesday morning with most locations reaching IFR or
MVFR levels by late morning. VFR conditions will return to the
entire forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be mainly from
the north at around 5 knots for much of the forecast period.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations