Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
348 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015
few changes for the forecast... as we close out the month of
July. A modified midcontinental airmass will remain in place...with
slightly cooler than normal dewpoints. Following near normal nighttime
lows...the relatively dry airmass will warm to several degrees
above normal through the weekend.
By Monday...850mb temperatures warm to 21 to 23c...around 4c warmer than
Saturday and likely supportive of upper 90s surface temperatures. Midafternoon
heat indices should prevail in the 100 to 105 degree range.
The next appreciable chance of rain will arrive early Wednesday...
courtesy of midlevel shortwave dropping southeast out of the
Central Plains. The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) models depicted a slightly
lower amplitude shortwave relative to earlier runs...with a
slightly further north track. As such...the midweek surface cold
front is depicted weaker on the European model (ecmwf) and not even present on the
12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) begin to diverge beyond midweek...with the GFS
bringing stronger northwest flow aloft into the midsouth...
resulting in cooler/unsettled weather late in the week. Conversely...
the 12z European model (ecmwf) builds the ridge east into western Arkansas by the end of
Friday of next week...with warm and dry conditions to the
midsouth. For the afternoon forecast...followed a compromise
blended solution...accompanied by lower than average forecast
confidence for days 5 through 7.
Looking beyond the 7 day forecast...GFS and European model (ecmwf) models appear
to settle back into agreement...as the European model (ecmwf) retrogrades the
ridge...leaving low amplitude northwest flow aloft over the
midsouth by the 10th of August. The main takeaway... no significant
heat waves appear on the horizon...at least not to the extent of
the most recent heat event earlier this past week. Just typical
early August heat.
18z taf cycle (31/18z-01/18z)
VFR conditions will occur through the period. Winds today NE 9-12
kts with gusts to near 18 kts. Winds tonight NE 6 kts or less.
Winds Saturday morning NE-east 4-9 kts.