Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
714 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Forecast looks on track...although hourly temperatures were a bit
too warm. Expect patchy for again near the Tennessee River and
Alabama state line. Otherwise...lows will be in the upper 60s to
Previous discussion... /issued 618 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
Currently...a weak middle level shear axis stretches from the Ohio
Valley through western Arkansas into a weak upper low over
eastern Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing
in vicinity of of this axis. Skies are partly sunny across the midsouth and
a few showers are popping up across eastern Arkansas.
Temperatures range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with light and
The weak upper low over eastern Texas and middle level shear axis
will slowly drift east across the lower Mississippi Valley
through Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in vicinity of these features across the midsouth but coverage will remain
quite low. Best chances will occur on Wednesday/Thursday across parts of
north Mississippi. By the end of the week this feature will push
east and get absorbed into a weak upper low over the southeast
U.S. Meanwhile upper ridging will be centered just to the west.
Expect above normal temperatures through the week into the weekend
with highs climbing into the low to middle 90s. Lows will range from
the middle and upper 60s in the cooler spots across the east to the
lower to middle 70s in Memphis. Patchy fog is possible across eastern
sections late tonight and perhaps again on subsequent nights.
As this weak upper low meanders around the southeast U.S. This
weekend into early next week it may promote isolated some showers
and thunderstorms across eastern sections of the midsouth.
However most places will remain rain free and warmer than normal.
Looking out a little further the GFS tries to bring a cold front
south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) is not on board with
this so probably a little early to get our hopes up for some Fall
Aviation...00z taf cycle
Patchy fog may develop late tonight at mkl/jbr/tup producing
MVFR/IFR visibilites. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected to
prevail. Light winds will become south winds between 4-7 kts after