Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
313 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
A slow moving upper level low pressure system continues to edge
east across the Tennessee Valley. This feature will still be in
the vicinity into Wednesday and will play a role in sky cover and
temperatures across the east. For tonight...low level
northeasterly flow should help to lock in low level moisture and
keep stratus in place into Wednesday morning across the Tennessee
River valley of west Tennessee into far northeast Mississippi.
Stratocumulus should again hold tough during the morning hours but
gradually scatter out by Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere...partly
cloudy conditions can be expected with some patchy early morning
fog Wednesday morning. High temperatures should be warmer tomorrow
with more sunshine anticipated.
Upper level ridging centered over Texas should finally build over
the entire region by Thursday and persist through the remainder
of the week as the upper low moves east to the southeastern U.S.
Coast. This should keep dry conditions but allow for more sunshine
and temperatures warming back to near or even slightly above
seasonal averages through the end of this week.
The upper flow pattern should remain northwesterly over the
weekend between the upper ridge axis over Texas and troughing
along the East Coast. A series of upper level shortwaves cresting
the upper ridge should set up a favorable mesoscale convective
system (mcs) pattern over the middle south. Attempting to time
individual mesoscale convective system development and evolution this far out is difficult
at best. Plan to increase probability of precipitation through the weekend and into the
first part of next week as the pattern becomes favorable.
Temperatures should remain seasonably warm along with higher
humidity levels through the end of the forecast period.
18z taf cycle
Conditions have beens slowly improving to IFR at all taf sites
early this afternoon with ceilings continuing to raise through late
afternoon. Winds will continue to be light out of the northeast
and skies should begin to show signs of clearing. If clearing
happens as suggested in guidance...fog development is likely at
all taf sites with mkl and tup dropping to 2sm...and perhaps
further. Will continue to watch this potential through the late
afternoon. Fog will dissipate by 13-14z Wednesday morning with VFR