Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
830 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
High pressure continues to dominate the weather across the
midsouth tonight. Clear skies and light winds will bring another
cool night to the area. Expect lows generally in the middle 40s to
middle 50s. Current forecast looks good...no updates are expected.
Discussion... /issued 218 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014/
At early afternoon...beautiful Fall weather conditions were
occurring across the midsouth. Temperatures were in the 70s with
low afternoon relative...clear skies...and a light to moderate
northeast wind. Precipitable water values from the morning Little
Rock and Nashville soundings were quite dry with values near 0.37
High pressure from the Middle Atlantic States to the midsouth will
dominate midsouth weather through Friday. Another cool night will
occur across the region tonight with a light northeast wind and
clear skies. Not much change is seen in the current weather pattern
through Friday except for gradual warming. Surface high pressure
will extend from the Middle-Atlantic States to the midsouth while weak
high pressure aloft is over the midsouth. The dry air in place is
allowing temperatures to get a little warmer than forecast
today...thus leaned toward the higher guidance forecast maximum
temperatures. High temperatures will gradually climb into the middle
and upper 80s by the end of the work week. With a dry air mass in
place...nights will remain on the cool side.
On Saturday...an upper level trough developing over the plains will
spread middle and high level clouds into the area. Kept the forecast
dry during the day Saturday. Moisture will continue to push into the
region Saturday night with a chance of showers spreading into east
central Arkansas and north MS.
There are significant differences between the models regarding the
upper level trough and its movement from Sunday into Tuesday. The
GFS is slower...weaker and further south than the European model (ecmwf). Now...took
a compromise. Kept probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms in the slight
chance to chance range from Sunday through Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf) is
much wetter for the midsouth than the GFS from Sunday into Monday
with a strong upper level trough moving more directly over the
midsouth. Confidence is low during this time frame. Hopefully...
later models will become in better agreement.
VFR. Winds will light northeast tonight shifting to the southeast
Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will be less than 7 kts or less.