Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
341 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
Currently mainly clear skies prevail across the forecast area.
Expect some stratus clouds to develop by sunrise then break up
again later in the morning.
Today through Wednesday...a weak upper trough over the Mississippi
Valley will erode as an upper high begins to build in from the
east. A stationary front will remain just to the north of the
forecast area through the period. Plenty of diurnal instability
will allow for scattered thunderstorms each day...especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. The best chance of storms
appear to be in the north closer to the boundary. A marginal risk
of severe storms exist today over the northwest half of the forecast area
for mainly damaging winds.
Thursday through Sunday...the upper ridge will become more
established over the region decreasing thunderstorm chances and
increasing heat indices to around or just above 100f.
06z taf cycle (06/06z-07/06z)
Areas of fog and stratus developing overnight with IFR or lower
conditions possible especially at kmkl and ktup. Conditions
improving after sunrise with conditions becoming predominately VFR.
Isolated thunderstorms expected between 06/18z and 07/01z with
lowering conditions possible for a short period...included thunderstorms in the vicinity at
all the taf sites. Light winds tonight. Winds increasing from the SW
Monday...becoming around 15 kts with higher gusts at kjbr. After
07/01z winds south diminishing to between 4 and 8 kts.