Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
523 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM CST sun Feb 7 2016/
Main forecast concern with this package is the potential for
wind-driven snow showers mainly Monday afternoon through Monday
evening across west Tennessee.
Currently...the frontal boundary of concern was located from northwest Arkansas
through southeast MO...stretching into the Ohio Valley and making steady
progress southeast. This cold front will move through the region
overnight with a marked decrease in temperatures expected by
Monday morning. While the air will be cooler...the true Arctic
cold dome is lagging well behind this initial frontal passage.
The main concern tomorrow will be the potential for snow squalls
to develop mainly during the afternoon hours across portions of
west Tennessee. Forecast indicate that temperature profiles should
favor snowfall as opposed to rain or sleet...with much of the
column well below freezing...even though surface temperatures may
only be in the low to middle 30s. Strong cold advection in the
850-700 mb layer will steepen low level lapse rates
significantly. In fact...upright instability is shown in forecast
soundings with 50-75 j/kg of cape present in the 0-3 km layer.
As low level forcing persists through the afternoon...streaks of
snow showers/squalls will likely develop. This will transient in
both time and space...but with winds expected to be fairly
strong...local reductions in visibilities could occur...especially
across areas near the Tennessee River valley. That being
said...impacts from this event will be relatively minor and no
headlines are expected to be needed.
Lingering snow showers/flurries are possible through the overnight
into Tuesday morning as a deep longwave carves itself out across
the eastern Continental U.S.. this will lock in cold air through middle to late
week with several reinforcing shortwaves rotating around the mean
In the long-term...the forecast remains mostly dry with
temperatures moderating. The flow regime will dampen somewhat as
the longwave breaks down and moves east into the Atlantic. Near-
average temperatures are expected.
00z taf cycle
VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through the overnight hours with
mainly an increase in middle and high level clouds. A front will pass
through the taf sites this evening with winds going northwesterly
and staying at 10 kts or greater at all sites except ktup where 5
kts will be common.
Strong northwest winds and increasing cloud cover is expected
Monday morning with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels as moisture
increases. There may be scattered snow showers which may at times
reduce visibilities at kmkl by Monday afternoon. Mainly flurries or
sprinkles expected at all other sites Monday afternoon with