Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1049 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
A weak upper low is situated over southern Alabama at this time. This
feature will gradually retrograde into southern Mississippi.
Moisture will gradually increase from the southeast and this may
help a few showers and thunderstorms to develop across north
Mississippi and parts of the west Tennessee near the Tennessee River.
Temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday so
highs near 90 look good...slightly cooler across northeast
Mississippi where clouds will be more plentiful. Forecast looks
Previous discussion... /issued 215 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
Currently...the midsouth remains between an upper trough currently
located over the southeast and an upper ridge located across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will retrograde back to the west
over the next 48 hours. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to northeast Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee
near the Tennessee River by this afternoon. The chances for
showers and thunderstorms will spread across the entire midsouth
by Wednesday. Models continue to be too warm as highs yesterday
remained in the middle to upper 80s. With clouds and precipitation
chances increasing over the next 48 hours...have lowered high
temperatures for today and Wednesday from the previous forecast.
Expect highs to reach into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
In addition to the upper trough...a cold front will move into the
area by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. This will bring
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Can/T rule out a
few storms becoming strong to severe Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. The main threat would be damaging winds.
Slightly cooler temperatures will return to the midsouth behind
the front as surface high pressure briefly moves into the area. Lows
Thursday night will drop into the lower 60s across portions of
For the weekend...surface high will shift east. Temperatures will
return to near 90 degrees as winds turn back around to the south.
Another cold front will approach the area late in the weekend into
Monday. However...models do not have any agreement on timing. With
weak northwest flow aloft over the area...can/T rule out a mesoscale convective system skirting
or moving through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning
and again Sunday night into Monday. Front should be over the
midsouth on Monday. Thus expect increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms from Saturday night through Monday.
Aviation...12z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period.
Patchy fog will diminish quickly this morning. Some isolated
showers or thunderstorms may develop Tuesday across eastern and
southern portions of the forecast area but coverage should remain
rather limited. Winds generally light from the east
today...shifting more southerly tonight. Patchy fog may redevelop
overnight...especially near mkl and tup.