Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
417 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

plenty of showers and thunderstorms on the radar tonight mainly to
our south and west...but coverage across the midsouth is expected
to increase over the next several hours. Temperatures at 4 am are
in the middle 70s under cloudy skies. Only another degree or two of
cooling is expected before sunrise.

Guidance is a little more bullish on the ridging during the
upcoming work week resulting in slightly warmer temperatures...but
overall no significant changes in this forecast update.

Still a little concerned about the potential for heavy rain over
the next 24 to 48 hours. Model precipitable water values are over
2.25 inches...up to 2.55 inches by this afternoon. Rainfall totals
yesterday help substantiate the heavy rainfall concerns. Portions
of east Arkansas received well over two inches of accumulation.
Hodographs are fairly straight today through Sunday morning
indicating the potential for training showers and thunderstorms is
high. Will add the possibility of localized flooding issues to the
severe weather potential statement. Rainfall totals through the weekend will likely exceed 1.25
inches across all of the midsouth with localized amounts over 3
inches likely. Conditions should begin to improve Sunday afternoon
with mostly dry conditions on Labor Day. Rain...clouds and
thunderstorms will keep temperatures mild today and tomorrow...but
warmer readings will return Monday. No severe thunderstorms are

Guidance still looks a bit too warm next week. As stated
earlier...guidance is a bit more bullish building in the ridge
next week. Bumped temperatures up slightly....but still leaning
towards a slightly cooler solution. For now...advertising high
temperatures slightly above normal for most of next week...but
below the middle 90s in guidance output.




06z taf cycle

VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through late tonight with mainly
dry conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should
redevelop in the vicinity of kjbr and kmem and then spread
eastward through Saturday morning. Winds should remain from the
south tonight at 7 kts or less.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected at all sites on
Saturday with mainly VFR ceilings. There will likely be MVFR
reductions at times with convection...but timing those occurences
this far out remains difficult. Winds should remain from the south
but increase in speeds to greater than 8 kts at all sites with 10
kts or greater likely at kmem and kjbr by afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday evening with
lowering ceilings and visibilities to MVFR levels. Southeast winds can be
expected at 8 kts or less.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations