Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
405 am CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
Clouds are gradually increasing across the forecast area this
morning ahead of a cold front which is just about to move into the
forecast area. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the front with
readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the front moves through
the region a few isolated showers will be possible over eastern
sections of the forecast area. As colder air moves in behind the
front temperatures will drop with most areas seeing their highest
temperatures of the day in the morning.
High pressure will build into the Southern Plains by this evening
bringing clear skies and somewhat chilly temperatures with lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. The surface high will move east along
the Gulf Coast on Thursday keeping dry weather for the region.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the
middle 50s to around 60 degrees. By Thursday night the high will be
east of the region so south winds will start to bring milder air
to the forecast area, low Friday morning will be about 10 warmer
than Thursday morning with readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Friday should be a fairly nice day with temperatures in the middle
60s. Another cold front will move into the forecast area Friday
night with a few isolated showers possible over extreme western
sections Friday afternoon. By Friday night scattered showers will
be found across much of the forecast area. The cold front will
move very slowly through the region Saturday and will not clear
the forecast area until Sunday morning. Scattered showers will be
possible both Saturday and Saturday night with rain diminishing
Temperatures will cool some by Sunday afternoon with below normal
temperatures expected to continue into Sunday night and Monday.
Winds should shift back to south by Tuesday morning bringing a
return of milder air with temperatures returning to normal levels
with highs in the low to middle 60s.
06z taf cycle
The ceilings and the wind will be the main concerns in the next 12
or so hours. Ceilings will generally be in the MVFR category above
1000 feet. However...Tupelo...Jackson and Memphis may experience IFR
ceilings as the front approaches. Precipitation should not reduce
visibilities much. And the winds will shift from the south to the
northwest with even more gusty winds after the wind shift. Tlsjr
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 54 33 60 44 / 10 0 0 0
mkl 53 27 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
jbr 51 30 59 42 / 10 0 0 0
tup 61 29 58 37 / 20 0 0 0
Arkansas...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Clay-Craighead-
Wind Advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for Crittenden-cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Wind Advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for Alcorn-Benton MS-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-
Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-
Tennessee...Wind Advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-