Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
856 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014


Updated the grids and zones to increase the wind speeds slightly
for this afternoon. Also modified the dew points grids a little
for this afternoon using more of a mav / met average.

A beautiful first full day of fall weatherwise will continue
across the midsouth this afternoon. High pressure from the Ohio
River valley to the midsouth will provide a northeast wind around
10 miles per hour across the midsouth. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80
across the extreme southern portions of north MS with low
afternoon relative humidity. Other than a few high level
clouds at the most...skies will be clear.



Discussion... /issued 439 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014/

The first full day of fall will feel very much like fall
throughout the midsouth. As of 4am this morning temperatures have
fallen into the 40s in portions of west Tennessee and near 50
degrees elsewhere in our forecast area. The region is currently
under one of the driest air masses we've seen in some time. The
00z lzk sounding had a precipitable water value of only 0.47 of an inch.

A strong...broad surface high centered over the Ohio Valley region
and a building upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley
region will continue to make for terrific weather today and
through the rest of the work week for the midsouth. Highs will
remain 3-5 degrees below normal today and lows tonight will fall
to the upper 40s once again in northwest Tennessee. Temperatures will
rebound to near normal values by Wednesday and into the weekend as
the surface slowly shifts east. Expect high temperatures in the
low 80s from Wednesday through the weekend with lows mainly in the
upper 50s through the aforementioned period.

Long term...
an upper level low pressure system will begin to form in the
Southern Plains this weekend and push towards the midsouth pulling
up moisture from the Gulf and changing US over to a more moist
pattern by the end of the weekend through early next week. The
Euro is more aggressive with this system while the GFS hints at
only scattered showers and thunderstorms from late Saturday to
early Sunday. Due to disagreements between long term models... I
decided to keep low end probability of precipitation until models come into better
agreement. Both models agree on upper level ridging after the
system passes on early next week.




12z tafs

Dry surface high over the Ohio Valley will bring light northeast
winds and VFR through the next 24 hours.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations