Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
854 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Update...evening update.

As of 8pm...latest surface analysis places a 1020mb center of high
pressure over much of the mid-south. Temperatures are mainly in
the middle to upper 60s areawide with the exception of Memphis
international reporting a mild 72 degrees. Clear skies and calm
conditions will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the
upper 40s in rural areas and along the Tennessee River basin...with
lower 50s expected along and surrounding the Mississippi Delta
Region.

Made some minor adjustments to temperatures to account for some
quicker than forecasted cooling in a few areas. The rest of the
forecast is on track and no changes are needed. Another beautiful
day is in store for Easter Sunday tomorrow.

Ac3

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 610 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Update...

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below.

Jcl

&&

Discussion... /issued 306 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Discussion...19z surface analysis places a 1033 mb ridge of high
pressure stretching from Hudson Bay back through the lower
Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in sunny skies across the
middle south this afternoon. As of 2 PM CDT...temperatures across the
middle south are in the 70s at most locations. Precipitation chances
Sunday night through Tuesday and again for late next week are the
challenges in this afternoon/S forecast.

Short term...(tonight through tuesday)...surface and upper level
ridging will remain in place across the middle south
tonight...resulting in a continuation of clear to mostly clear
skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the 40s to around
50 degrees near the Tennessee River and mainly lower 50s
elsewhere. The ridge will begin to move east on Sunday with rain
free conditions expected to persist throughout the day. Highs on
Sunday will be similar to today if not slightly higher with
readings in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees.

Short term models indicate a positively tilted trough will move
from the central/Southern Plains on Monday and into the
middle/lower Mississippi valleys by Monday night. Based on the
latest model trends think most if not all rain chances will hold
off until Monday night when better instability and lift associated
with the upper level trough arrives. Showers and thunderstorms
will gradually come to an end by late Tuesday afternoon as a ridge
of high pressure returns to the middle south through the middle south by
Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)...GFS/ECMWF long term
models indicate a weak cold front will move through the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday. Some timing issues exist
with with the cold front as models indicate a potential for this
front to slow down as it moves into the lower Mississippi Valley
and encounters nearly parallel flow aloft. Thus...have kept a
mention of showers and thunderstorms until Friday night.

Cjc

&&

Aviation...

00z taf cycle (20/00z-21/00z)

Patchy fog around ktup and kmkl may reduce visibilities to MVFR
between 20/09z and 20/13z...otherwise VFR conditions will occur at
the taf sites through the period. Light east to calm winds tonight will
turn southerly Sunday at 5-6 kts.

Jcl

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$