Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1139 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015
Updated for 06z aviation discussion...
Previous discussion... /issued 920 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/
At middle evening...clusters of thunderstorms continued over
Benton/Carroll counties in the northeastern County Warning Area...and from the
Memphis metropolitan area to Alcorn County MS. Some of these storms have
produced hail and very heavy rain. Low-level convergence along a
weak front and a shortwave rotating around the large-scale upper
trough over the Great Lakes region helped initiate and sustain the
Even with loss of afternoon heating...NAM and hrrr guidance suggest
at least scattered storms will continue through the night. Will
adjust probability of precipitation/qpf/sky grids to better match current trends. Quick look
at early 00z guidance continues to suggest unsettled pattern through
the week...with Wednesday/Thursday as potentially the most widespread precipitation.
Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015/
during the middle-afternoon pleasant Summer weather with readings
generally in the middle 80s to near 90...a little cooler near the
Tennessee River. Line of towering cumulus has developed along the
weak surface front entering the northern portion of the forecast
area. Anticipate shower and thunderstorm development along this
front as the afternoon wears on.
Short term....short term...(tonight through friday)
Models showing a disturbance in northwest flow with a 100+ knots jet at
250 mb located in the upper Midwest. This energy interacts with a
weak surface front sagging into the region this afternoon. Models
indicate some thunderstorm development along the front. Tonight
models still show convective activity along dying surface
front...mainly across north Mississippi.
After any overnight convection moves south of the area Tuesday
morning...diurnal forcing may cause isolated thunderstorms
Tuesday/Tuesday evening...before a better chance for rainfall
begins on Wednesday with shortwave energy diving south developing
a surface low across the middle of the country. This system
provides the focus for thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon
As the middle-weak system slips farther east the front wobbles across
our region late in the week. This will focus clouds and the chance
for convection across our area.
Long term...(saturday through monday)...
By the weekend the northwest flow aloft flattens and becomes more
zonal...especially in later forecast periods. A nearly stationary
front that is expected to locate over the region early Saturday
should gradually head north allowing for a more warm and humid
airmass to spread over the region by Monday. The threat of at
least diurnal thunderstorms remains.
06z taf cycle
Backbuilding thunderstorms continue over mem and will continue to
do so through at least the next hour. Eventually...cold front
passage will occur shunting storms south. Tup will likely
experience thunderstorms after 08z as coverage increases
associated with an increasing low level jet. VFR conditions
expected at jbr and mkl through the period.