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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1146 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

updated to add 06z aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 908 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/


Skies are mostly clear across much of the forecast area this
evening with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Quiet weather will remain over the region overnight. Will update
forecast to remove some evening wording but no big changes are


Previous discussion... /issued 611 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/


Currently...upper level high pressure extends across the Southern
Plains between an upper low over the southwest U.S. And an upper
low off the southeast Atlantic coast. At the surface weak high
pressure extends from the middle Mississippi Valley into the
Southern Plains while a weak inverted trough extends from the
north Gulf Coast into Alabama. A few showers have popped up over
northern Alabama in vicinity of this trough. Temperatures have climbed into the
lower and middle 80s.

Tonight through Thursday...pattern will remain fairly similar
with high pressure aloft over the Southern Plains and surface high
pressure tracking north of the region. The weak inverted surface
trough will also remain from Alabama into central Mississippi over
the next couple of days. Higher dewpoints in vicinity of of this surface
trough could result in enough instability to produce a shower or
thunderstorm across northeast Mississippi the next couple of
afternoons. Coverage will be low so keep probability of precipitation below mentionable
levels. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the lower to middle
80s with perhaps some upper 80s by Thursday. Expect a good deal of
sunshine with some passing middle/high clouds in the weak northwest
flow aloft along with typical daily cumulus development.

Thursday night through Friday night...a progressive upper trough
moving through the Great Lakes will push a cold front across the
midsouth Friday into Friday night. Best chances for showers and
thunderstorms appear to be across west Tennessee on Friday. 12z
European model (ecmwf) along with a few GFS ensembles are a little deeper with the
trough and slower clearing out the precipitation so added some probability of precipitation to
Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday...much cooler air will move in for
Saturday with highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure will be
centered over the region by Sunday morning so expect a very cool
morning with temperatures in the 40s in the cooler spots. High pressure
will head to the southeast with return flow developing by early
next week. Expect dry weather and temperatures warming back above



06z taf cycle

Patchy fog may produce MVFR conditions at mkl/jbr/tup between
07/08-12z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with mainly light north winds.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


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