Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
618 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CDT Monday Mar 17 2014/
Currently...deformation band precipitation continues to dissipate this
morning. Cloudy skies cover the region with some patchy light rain
or drizzle south of I-40. Temperatures range from the lower 30s north to
around 40 south with a stiff north breeze.
Today...the upper trough stretching from the midsouth to the
northeast Gulf will push east. Expect some patchy light
rain/drizzle across NE MS this morning otherwise clouds will clear out
from west to east through the day as weak high pressure builds in.
Temperatures will be well below normal topping out in the upper 40s north
to lower 50s south. Winds will be diminishing throughout the day.
Tonight...weak high pressure will prevail with mostly clear skies.
Given the wet ground...light winds and mostly clear skies seems
that fog is possibility. Will add patchy fog. Temperatures will cool
into the 30s.
Tuesday...strong low pressure will move into Missouri with an
increasing pressure gradient across the midsouth. Expect
southerly winds to increase bringing mild air north with highs
well into the 60s. Wind Advisory criteria may be met across the
Tuesday night and Wednesday...low pressure pushes into the Great
Lakes and the associated cold front swings through the midsouth.
There are some timing issues. The 00z GFS is quick...pushing the
front through by 12z Wednesday while the European model (ecmwf) waits until 18z. As a
result the European model (ecmwf) solution acquires a little more moisture which
in turn could result in a few showers. For now will leave the
forecast dry and wait for some better agreement. Lows will be
milder Tuesday night due to mixing and highs on Wednesday will be in the
Wednesday night through Thursday night...high pressure and
Friday through Sunday...Friday looks mainly dry...breezy and
mild with highs in the lower 70s. Models in good agreement
pushing a front through Friday night. Upped probability of precipitation a bit. A chance
of rain early across eastern sections on Saturday followed by
clearing skies. Sunday looks cooler than normal.
Wrap around MVFR stratocu will continue into the afternoon before
scattering...and conditions becoming VFR. Vcsh is expected at mem
early due to a light snow and sleet mixture nearby. Northwest
winds at 10-15 kts this morning will slowly diminish to light and
variable or calm by evening. Mostly clear skies late will lead to
possible patchy fog at mkl...tup and jbr.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 51 38 66 46 / 20 0 0 10
mkl 49 31 66 45 / 20 0 0 10
jbr 48 34 64 42 / 10 0 0 10
tup 51 33 68 46 / 20 0 0 10