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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ 

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.  

ALL RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY
WHERE IT RAINED INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/ 

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK SHEAR AXIS FROM THE
WESTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE AIDED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EDGES FURTHER EAST.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK... WITH SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM TEXAS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFERED ON THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH SHOWED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
FINALLY FALLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS LATE NEXT WEEK...AS
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DROPS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON OR ABOUT
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11TH. UNTIL THEN...PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS TO
MVFR AND IFR AT KMKL...KJBR...AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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