Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
355 PM CDT sun Mar 9 2014
the cold front that moved through the middle-south overnight has
pushed off to our south and is now located along a line from
northern Georgia and back through southern Alabama and
Mississippi. Behind the front...a 1028mb surface high is building
in from the west northwest. Temperatures across the middle-south are
in the upper 40s north with 50s to around 60 degrees south. A
lingering stratus deck still remains over the southern two thirds
of the middle-south and should break up later this evening.
Short term...tonight through Wednesday...
overnight...skies will become clear and winds will become light to
nearly calm and patchy fog is expected to develop. Any fog should
clear up quickly in the morning as the sun comes up. Monday will
be a beautiful Spring day with abundantly sunny skies and highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide as high pressure and southwest
winds dominate the weather. Temperatures on Tuesday will be well
above normal as well with low to middle 70s anticipated across the
By Tuesday night...a longwave trough will drop down across the
plains and a surface low will develop over the Mississippi Valley.
An associated trailing cold front will move through late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Decent upper level forcing associated with
the trough and marginal instability...about 400 to 500 j/kg
SBCAPE...will be be available ahead of the frontal passage...so
made a slight mention of thunder overnight as the front moves through.
Strong northwest winds behind the front during the day on Wednesday
will be sustained 20 to 25 miles per hour with gusts to around 35 miles per hour. A Wind
Advisory may be needed to address this.
The cold front will move off to the east by Wednesday night as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Behind the
front...cold and dry air will pour into the region aided by strong
northwest flow aloft.
Long term...Thursday through next weekend...
current model guidance shows -6c to -8c 850mb temperatures arriving
by Thursday morning over the mid-south. This will roughly translate
sub-freezing temperatures at the surface...however the cold will
be shortlived as winds will reverse around to the south during the
day helping to moderate temperatures. Highs be slightly below
normal with readings in the low to middle 50s.
By Friday...flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure
builds in at the surface. This will lead to a nice warming trend
through Sunday with highs back into the 60s. Another cold front
looks to move into the middle-south by Sunday night.
Elevated moist inversion at 17z was resulting in a VFR altitude
cloud deck... overspreading VFR haze and light wind fields at the
surface. Once the midlevel cloud deck dissipates later this
afternoon... relatively moist boundary layer will provide a chance
for radiation fog by late evening. Confidence is limited on how
dense the fog might be...given the low level pressure gradient
begins to tighten overnight. Of the four taf sites...tup may have
the best chance of falling below VFR toward sunrise Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 42 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
mkl 41 68 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
jbr 40 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
tup 44 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20