Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
318 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Skies remain cloudy over much of the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.
Showers and some thunderstorms continue to move mainly across
portions of north Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. The areal
coverage of the rain has decreased since this morning.
A cold front was located from western lower Michigan through
eastern Arkansas and into northwest Louisiana. This front is
helping to produce the rain over the region. By tonight...low
pressure is expected to develop along the cold front over
southern Louisiana and move into north Mississippi overnight. As
the front moves slowly east rain will continue to fall over much
of the forecast area. As the low moves into north Mississippi rain
may become heavier across portions of northeast Mississippi where
a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.
The cold front will move slowly out of the forecast area Sunday so
the threat of more rain will continue through Sunday and into
Sunday night. Temperatures will be on the cool side on Sunday with
highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
By Monday...a large area of high pressure will be centered over
the Canadian rockies. This high will start to bring dry weather to
the region. Since the high will be quite far away there will still
be quite a bit of clouds on Monday but they gradually start to
move away so skies should become more clear Monday night. Colder
air will start to make its way into the region as the high drops
into the northern rockies and then into the Central Plains. It
will be dry and temperatures will be below normal for Tuesday and
By Thursday south winds will start to bring moisture back into the
region with a small chance of light rain expected over southern
sections of the forecast area. By Thursday night...a new surface
low will be developing over northern New Mexico and then will be
moving east through the Texas Panhandle and into central Oklahoma.
Ahead of this low more moisture will move into the forecast area
so there will be a better chance of precipitation for Thursday
night and Friday. In northern sections of the forecast area
precipitation may take the form of freezing rain as temperatures
drop close to freezing late Thursday night and early Friday
morning before returning to rain late Friday morning.
As the low tracks northeast through Missouri and eventually into
Illinois...more rain is expected to fall Friday night and into next
For 18z taf cycle
Scattered showers will continue to move through the mid-south.
Ceilings are MVFR in Tupelo and IFR elsewhere. This will continue
throughout much of the period. Expect to see periods of very
light rain or no rain...however...ceilings will remain low for
forecast period. Tlsjr
MS...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Sunday
afternoon for Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-