Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
200 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
A cold front currently stretches from near Jackson Tennessee to
Batesville Arkansas. The front will continue pushing south through
the midsouth this morning. Some redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front...mainly across
north Mississippi. Behind the front...cooler and drier air will
filter into the area. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s today.
Surface high pressure will build into the midsouth by tonight. Expect
pleasant conditions as light winds and clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s to middle 60s.
The surface high will quickly push east on Friday. However...expect
the dry air to linger a little longer. So despite temperatures
returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s...the humidity will remain
low thus making it not feel as bad.
However...hot and humid conditions will return for the weekend.
Expect highs to return to the lower to middle 90s. The warm
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce
heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
A cold front will begin to approach the midsouth late Saturday
night and will push through the midsouth Sunday into Sunday night.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the
front. Some storms could be strong to severe on Sunday into Sunday
evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats
from these storms.
Beautiful weather is expected from the beginning to middle part of
next week. Cooler and drier air will filter into the midsouth as
surface high pressure will build the midsouth from the Ohio Valley.
Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s
to middle 60s.
06z taf cycle
Building confidence that low stratus and/or fog will impact each
taf site overnight through middle morning. Worst conditions will be
seen at tup and mkl with IFR and possibility LIFR weather. As a weak
cold front progresses through the area drier air ushered in from
northeast winds will allow for ceilings to slowly lift and scatter
through the morning hours. The only exception will be tup where
VFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon. Later in the period
near sunset winds will diminish and skies will clear.