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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
634 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014


Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below.



Discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/

Discussion...surface analysis this afternoon places a surface low
in the northern Gulf of Mexico near Florida while water vapor
satellite/WSR-88D VAD wind profiles indicate an upper level low
embedded within a deep upper level trough over the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Showers have been minimal at
best across the middle south this afternoon with mostly sunny skies
prevalent west of the Mississippi River and partly sunny to mostly
cloudy skies east. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT range from the
middle 60s to lower 70s across the middle south.

An upper level low/upper level trough axis located across the
lower Mississippi Valley/northern Gulf of Mexico will gradually
move east towards southern Georgia and Florida by Saturday.
Confidence in rain showers lingering across the middle south this
evening east of the Mississippi River is very low at best and as a
result kept the forecast rain free. These rain free conditions are
expected to persist into Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds
in across the region. Temperatures will rise into the middle 70s
and approach 80 degrees this weekend.

Long term models indicate another cold front embedded within
northwest flow aloft will move across the middle south Monday into
Monday night. Slowed onset of low end rain chances back to late
Sunday night west of the Mississippi River as better precipitation
and a shortwave won't arrive until Monday/Monday night. This front
is expected to gradually clear the middle south on Tuesday with
an occluding cold front arriving towards late next week. Kept low
end probability of precipitation at the end of the extended any may need to consider
adjusting upward in subsequent forecasts. Temperatures will
remain quite similar throughout the forecast with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.




00z taf cycle (19/00z-20/00z)

VFR conditions will occur through the period. Winds light tonight.
Winds Saturday NE 7-10 kts.



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