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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
918 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015


Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures mainly in the 70s. The showers and thunderstorms that
developed over northern sections of the forecast area has
dissipated with little if any additional rainfall expected
overnight. Have removed probability of precipitation from overnight forecast.



Previous discussion... /issued 626 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/


Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
in the past hour or so over portions of northwest Tennessee and
the Missouri bootheel. This activity should continue until around
sunset. Additional development is possible until sunset as well.
Have added probability of precipitation to entire forecast area for this evening.


Discussion... /issued 249 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/

Currently across the midsouth skies were partly sunny with south
winds running 5 to 10 miles per hour. Temperatures ranged from the middle 70s in
the southwest the low and middle 80s farther north. On
satellite persistent mesoscale convective system from southeast Arkansas into southern
Mississippi was consistently pulsing out Gravity waves in all
directions...likely one of the reasons why radar is nearly void of
convection. The other reason is cloud cover is keeping the region
below the 87f convective temperature off the 05/12z lzk sounding.

For tonight through Wednesday...models are agreement that the
upper low over southeast Kentucky will open and fill as it lifts
into the middle Atlantic. This in turn will allow the light northwest
upper flow over the midsouth to back more southwest. In the low
levels southerly flow will increase as a new shortwave dives out
of Canada and into the Great Lakes. A cold front currently in the
upper Midwest will drop to the middle Mississippi Valley Monday
night...slowing...and eventually stalling just to our north on

So for tonight ongoing convection to our south will continue to
skirt the southwest Delta counties...with partial clearing farther
north. Patchy fog/stratus is likely to form by sunrise. By noon
tomorrow precipitation chances will start to shift
the shear increases ahead of the approaching front. Believe best
rain chances will remain over the far north through Wednesday as
the Bermuda high builds in from the southeast. The GFS remains
bullish with quantitative precipitation forecast farther south...but it is the outlier. Organized
severe weather will be possible over the northern counties as
storms may gel along the front...will make mention of this threat
in the afternoon severe weather potential statement. Warmest temperatures this period are
expected Tuesday...especially over the southern counties where
rain chances are lower. Heat indices in this zone may reach 100f.

Thursday through Sunday...the aforementioned stalled front is
forecasted to completely wash out as the upper ridge builds in
stronger. Rain chances appear slight over the area as the 595dm
high center over Mississippi stabilizes the midlevels. Temperatures
will start off normal...climbing a couple of degrees above later
next weekend. Widespread heat indices cresting 100f are forecasted.




00z taf cycle (06/00z-07/00z)

Lingering showers and thunderstorms around kmkl are expected to
dissipate early this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail this evening. Fog and stratus developing after 06/05z with
IFR or lower conditions possible especially at kmkl and ktup.
Conditions improving after sunrise with conditions becoming
predominately VFR. Isolated thunderstorms expected after 06/18z
with lowering conditions possible for a short period...included
thunderstorms in the vicinity at all the taf sites. Light winds tonight. Winds increasing
from the SW Monday...becoming around 15 kts with higher gusts at



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


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