Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
622 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015
Discussion... /issued 413 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015/
Cooler temperatures in store for the midsouth today. 4 am CDT surface
analysis showed a cold front just south of the i40 corridor. Post
frontal low cloudiness was evident on GOES multichannel infrared imagery
entering far northeast Arkansas...the MO bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
These clouds will have a large bearing on daytime temperatures. Assuming
the elevated stratus mixes out...06z NAM cumulus rule points toward a
fair amount of Post frontal cumulus during the afternoon. Have cut
a few degrees off MOS ensemble temperatures for today...mainly north of
Dry northeast winds will continue through midweek...as an upper
level southern branch closed passes through on Tuesday. Best rain
amounts will occur over MS...in closer proximity to elevated Gulf
moisture and surface low tracking along the coast. 06z NAM model
forecasts Tuesday afternoon precipitable water /pw/ values over north
MS will reach 1.2 inches...while north of i40...precipitable water values will
prevail near 0.5 inches...lower than current /early Sunday morning/
Dry weather will prevail during the middle to late week periods...
under low amplitude ridging aloft. Temperatures will recover to near
normal values by Thursday and Friday... and warm a degree or two
above above early may normals this weekend.
12z taf set
MVFR ceilings continue to spread into the midsouth. Kjbr and kmkl are
already experiencing MVFR conditions. Kmem should be affected by
13z and ktup by 15z. Ceilings will lift to VFR between 19-22z. Expect
VFR conditions the rest of the period. North winds will be around
10-12 kts through the period.