Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
516 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016
Updated for 00z aviation discussion below...
Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/
A stationary front remains just south of the forecast area in
central MS while a strong surface high is centered over northern
Illinois. This scenario provided a strong north-S temperature gradient with
a defined NE wind this afternoon. The frontal boundary will
gradually weaken and dissipate through Friday.
Another cold front will move through the midsouth late Friday
providing a more polar-like airmass into Saturday. A return flow
of moisture will move into the area Sunday and a surface low will
track across north Mississippi Monday. Precipitation will begin to
move in from the west Sunday and be widespread Sunday night into
Monday morning. Wintry precipitation is most likely in the north
where there could be some impacts...especially Sunday night into
Monday morning. More details will be provided in later forecasts.
A warming trend will begin by Tuesday as the upper ridge in the
western US progresses to the east. Dry and above normal
temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds
between 5-10 kts. Winds will remain from the northeast through
tonight switching to a more northerly direction on Friday.