Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1140 am CST sun Dec 21 2014
Previous discussion... /issued 1012 am CST sun Dec 21 2014/
Discussion...surface analysis places a ridge of high pressure
over the Ohio Valley back through the lower Mississippi Valley.
This is resulting in sunny skies across most of the middle south this
morning except for portions of east/northeast Arkansas.
Temperatures as of 10 am CST range from the middle 30s to middle
40s. Will make some adjustments to cloud cover over northeast
Arkansas and northeast Mississippi to account for short term
trends. Otherwise...forecast overall in great shape.
Updated grids will be available shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 521 am CST sun Dec 21 2014/
A surface high over the Ohio Valley is ridging into our forecast area
this morning providing radiational cooling to west Tennessee and north MS.
Farther to the west over Arkansas and MO...southerly winds on the back
side of the high are providing low clouds from moisture advection.
Expect a mainly sunny day today with a few more clouds lingering
this morning over parts of the northwest. The surface high will retreat to
the NE over the next couple of days giving way to the next system
early this week.
A cold front will move through the forecast area Tuesday and
provide high chances of showers and possible thunderstorms. The
best chance of thunderstorms will be over NE MS Tuesday afternoon.
Rain will linger behind the front Tuesday night. A vigorous
shortwave will provide a chance of rain or snow showers Wednesday
followed by clearing Wednesday night. Christmas day will be sunny
and become a little milder in the afternoon as winds become more
The next cold front will move through late Friday or Friday night
and provide another chance of rain. Expect cooler and drier
conditions over the coming weekend.
VFR weather through most of the period...with IFR/MVFR ceilings
moving in late. Light east winds will veer southeast through
south and begin increasing overnight.
Aviation...a middle cloud deck at jbr is eroding to the north with
mostly clear skies elsewhere. VFR conditions will continue today
and through much of the night. After 06z...low clouds will return
with IFR conditions expected area winds by sunrise and continuing
through the end of the taf cycle. Winds from the south to
southeast will remain in the 5-10kt range through the taf
period...likely strengthening a bit late tonight into early