Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
947 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...
updated for sky cover.
&&
Discussion...
dense cirrus from Midwest mesoscale convective system will continue to drift southeast
across the midsouth this morning...with some thinning during the
afternoon hours. Have adjusted forecast wording to mostly sunny
conditions expected. Other forecast parameters are currently on
track with no changes needed.
Jab
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 604 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Very little adjustments made to the previous forecast due to
strong model agreement and non-active pattern through the next
week. Much higher than average forecast confidence through the
entire period. Very little spread seen in the low and high means
through the period as well as for mean 12 hour precipitation chances.
Today through Monday...
High pressure dominates the region today with mostly clear skies
and light winds...very comfortable dewpoints...and temperatures just below
normal for late may. Surface high drifts east for Sunday and more
southerly flow brings in warmer and more moist Gulf air...slightly
above average temperatures and a small chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms across the west and northern portions of the
forecast area. Upper level ridging starts to build across the
midsouth with above normal temperatures and dry conditions for
Monday...slow climb continues with dewpoints starting to reach into
the 60s.
Tuesday through Saturday...
Ridging continue to control the region through the majority if not
all of the period with southerly flow into the area...maybe starting
to give by Friday into Saturday. Above normal temperatures likely through
the entire period...dewpoints will push into the middle to upper 60s by
the end of the week with highs in the upper 80s nearing 90.
Capping under the ridge will hold off the rain chances until maybe
Friday or Saturday depending on how fast the ridge breaks
down...some disagreement on how this will happen but overall
strong agreement in models through Friday...lesser so in the
distant next weekend. GFS and ens GFS push precipitation chances as early as
Friday...and Euro holds them off until next Sunday due to the
ridge holding tough.
--Abs
&&
Aviation...
12z taf set
VFR conditions expected over next 24 hours. Light southeast winds
generally expected through the period.
Krm
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 81 62 87 67 / 0 10 20 10
mkl 79 54 85 63 / 0 10 20 20
jbr 79 59 86 64 / 0 10 30 20
tup 80 56 87 62 / 0 10 10 10
&&
Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
