Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1122 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015
Previous discussion... /issued 856 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015/
Discussion...water vapor satellite trends this evening depict a
longwave trough axis stretching from near Lake Erie back through
northwest Arkansas and into Texas and a weak upper level low
centered near Hot Springs Arkansas. Temperatures as of 8 PM CDT are in
the 70s at most locations. WSR-88D radar trends over the past
hour have shown a substantial decrease in shower/thunderstorm
coverage across the middle south. Will make some ajustments to rain
chances and any other elements as needed to account for short term
trends. Otherwise...forecast overall in good shape.
Updated grids will be available shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 624 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015/
Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015/
A broad upper trough currently over the area will drift west over
the next couple of days while an upper ridge builds in from the
east. Currently...scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed over the midsouth as daytime heating is interacting with
the upper trough. Expect a few of these storms to continue into the
evening hours thus will leave 20/30 probability of precipitation across the area.
Can/T rule out an isolated thunderstorm occurring over the rest
of the next seven days but overall expect a dry period as the
upper ridge builds over the area. With surface winds remaining out
of the southeast...dewpoints will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s which will keep conditions humid. In addition...heat
will gradually build over the area with highs reaching into the
lower to middle 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. The hot and humid
conditions will continue into next weekend.
Aviation...00z taf cycle
Showers and thunderstorms have ended. Br/fog looks more likely
tonight at both mkl and tup due to increased ground moisture. IFR
ceilings may also briefly develop at tup. Winds generally from the
east to southeast less than 5kt tonight and tomorrow.
VFR conditions tomorrow.