Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
524 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015

Update...aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015/


The approaching cold front is just west of the County Warning Area at this time.
A band of showers associated with the front sits roughly along
the Mississippi River. The band will continue to move east over
the next couple of hours. Expect the bulk of the lingering rain to
be over northeast Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River after 6 PM. All rain will probably be east of the
County Warning Area by 9-10 PM. Colder air will filter into the area behind the
front. Can/T rule out some flurries across the County Warning Area after midnight
as the cold air Ushers in.

Arctic high pressure will settle over the region Monday into
Monday night. Monday will be chilly as clouds will linger over
much of the area. Decent cold air advection will be occurring as
well. Expect highs to to rise only 6-7 degrees over the morning

By Monday night...skies should clear. This will allow temperatures
to plummet into the upper teens to middle 20s.

The high shifts east on Tuesday. Temperatures will rebound into
the upper 40s to lower 50s thanks to winds turning around to the

On Wednesday...the midsouth may be sandwiched between two weather
systems with a surface low along or just south of the Gulf Coast and a
cold front over the Midwest plunging south. Models continue to be
in disagreement on exactly where the surface low will be located which
also affects each models placement of the cold front. The 12z
European model (ecmwf) has the surface low just south of the Gulf Coast...the GFS is
even further south while the NAM has come in just north of the of
the Gulf Coast. This results in the NAM and European model (ecmwf) indicating that
portions of north Mississippi could be on the northern fringes of
rain associated with the low. The GFS remains dry. As a result of
the GFS having the surface low further south...the GFS plunges the
cold front into the area on Wednesday while the European model (ecmwf) keeps the
front north of the County Warning Area. The model also indicates some light rain
could fall with the front. Have continued to try to go with a
blend with having 20 probability of precipitation across portions of north Mississippi in
the morning from the northern fringes of rain from the surface low
and then 20 probability of precipitation across much of the area during the afternoon with
the idea that the front may be moving into the County Warning Area.

The European model (ecmwf) has come into better agreement with the GFS for Wednesday
night and Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) quickly plunges the cold front
through Wednesday evening and both models show the associated
upper trough moving in by Thursday morning which also kicks off some
precipitation across the area. The GFS remains a little stronger with
the trough but both models are now putting out quantitative precipitation forecast over the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Both models are also
showing Arctic air plunging into the area behind the front. So
confidence is growing that rain will change over to snow Wednesday
night across the County Warning Area and that at least a dusting is possible with
maybe up to 2 inches over certain parts of the area depending
which model solution ends up being right. Will raise probability of precipitation to 40s
across much of the area Wednesday night. Will also add mention
in the severe weather potential statement. Still a long ways out and a lot could change but at
least models seem to be coming in some sort of an agreement. Stay

Arctic high pressure will rebuild into the County Warning Area for the end of the
week but should shift east by early next weekend. Saturday looks
to be possibly the warmest day over the next seven days. Another
cold front will move into the area on Sunday bringing chances for
rain to the midsouth.


Aviation...00z taf cycle

A cold front has pushes east of jbr mem and mkl...and will move
through tup within the next couple of hours. Rain should come to
an end within an hour or so of its passing and winds will shift
from the north to northwest increasing to 10-15kt. Ceilings are MVFR
behind the front...but will most likely lower a bit to around
1500ft overnight. Expect VFR conditions tomorrow with north wind
around 10kt.


Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations