Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
941 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
take a raincoat or an umbrella if you plan on shopping tomorrow.
Rain looks likely...especially across the western two thirds of
the midsouth. Temperatures should be mild featuring lows around 60
and highs in the middle to upper 60s.
Previous discussion... /issued 530 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
updated for 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
numerical models in general agreement with the upper level
pattern through the middle of next week. The upper level low
currently over the Great Basin will begin to move east late Sunday
or early Monday. Meanwhile it remains relatively stationary and
provides the middle-south with southwest flow aloft. Under the
southwest flow there is a front that will slowly move to the south
and east closer to the middle-south overnight into Friday. The front
has a lot of moisture along it. In addition the upper atmosphere
is getting moisture from Hurricane Sandra in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. As Sandra moves inland and weakens the moisture from the
system will feed into the frontal system providing plenty of
moisture into the mid-south...especially west of the Mississippi
Precipitable water with this system is over 200 percent of normal
over much of eastern Arkansas...the Missouri bootheel and west
Tennessee over the weekend.
Left the Flash Flood Watch as it was...it may need to be extended
as the frontal system seems to be slowing down and we may have
heavy rain still on Sunday. Increased qpfs on Sunday and Monday
because of this slow down. The other question is whether any
energy from Sandra will move along the front..if it does we may
have heavier rain and stronger winds than in the forecast...little
confidence in this happening so left out of grids.
Front slowly moves out of the middle-south next week. Have
precipitation going through Tuesday night for extreme southeast
portions of the County Warning Area.
By middle-week zonal flow aloft with surface high pressure moving
into the area for the rest of the forecast period.
VFR initially but IFR and MVFR ceilings will move into the region
late tonight and tomorrow. Best confidence for IFR weather will be
at jbr as front/rain bands approach. A few light sprinkles may
form near mem and mkl by early afternoon...otherwise heavier
showers at these sites will hold off until later taf periods.
Winds will continue to be a concern...8-12 kts with gusts Friday.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch from 6 am CST Friday through late Saturday
night for Clay-Craighead-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 am CST Friday through late Saturday
night for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
Tennessee...Flash Flood Watch from 6 am CST Friday through late Saturday
night for lake.