Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1137 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
Updated for 06z taf discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 935 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
No updates are planned for this evening.
An upper level shortwave embedded within northwest flow aloft will
continue to produce isolated to scattered rain showers across the
middle south tonight. The greatest potential through the evening and
overnight hours should remain across southwest sections of the
area where moisture is greatest. Low temperatures should range
from near 60 degrees in northwest Tennessee to the middle 60s across
north Mississippi. The current forecast has a good handle on the
situation and no updates are planned at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
Discussion...20z surface analysis indicates a surface low
centered over northeast Texas this afternoon. Most of the showers
and thunderstorms have remained near the surface low with only a
few isolated/scattered rain showers occurring across the forecast
area earlier today. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT are predominantly
in the 70s with a few locations in the lower 80s across portions
of west Tennessee and north Central/Northeast Mississippi.
Convective chances remain the primary forecast challenge for the
next 7 days.
Short term...(tonight through sunday)...a surface low over
northeast Texas will gradually move east into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday. Isolated/scattered rain
showers are possible tonight...mostly south of I-40. Not much change
is expected in the upper level pattern for the next few days as an
upper level trough will remain across the eastern half of the
United States. This will bring chances for isolated/scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms to the middle south through the
period. Temperatures tonight/Friday will remain below normal
with lows in the 60s tonight and highs in the lower 80s on Friday.
A gradual moderation of temperatures is expected with highs
gradually approaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by this
Long term...(monday through thursday)...latest 12z long term
model trends indicate an upper level ridge over the western
United States will gradually build somewhat east over the lower
Mississippi Valley next week. This will result in afternoon highs
returning to the lower 90s and decreasing rain chances early next
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase
towards the latter half of the week as moisture/instability
increases across the lower Mississippi Valley and another front
approaches the region.
06z taf cycle
Light rain associated with an upper level disturbance will keep at
least sprinkles around through the remainder of the night for kjbr
and kmem. Visibility restrictions should be minimal if any.
Overnight...fog may develop at jbr...mkl..and tup...but most
likely at jbr. Visibility may decrease to MVFR. Winds will be
light overnight. Ceilings should remain VFR. Wind direction will vary
tomorrow. Chances of thunderstorms will increase tomorrow
afternoon but not enough to mention in tafs.