Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
327 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Continued dry conditions are expected through the majority of the
forecast period with the coolest temperatures of the fall season
thus far expected Saturday night/Sunday morning...
The frontal boundary has cleared the middle-south shunting the
precipitation east with it. Cooler and much drier air was filtering in to
the region as a strong Canadian high pressure system builds south.
Tuesday will feel noticeably cooler and less humid as the
aforementioned surface high continues to build into the region.
The one concern on Tuesday will be fire weather conditions. Red
flag criteria will not be met but winds will be breezy and the
recent dry spell has allowed fuels to dry enough so that fire
weather concerns will be higher than normal. It is sufficient to
practice safe burning procedures...but also Worth keeping in mind
that fires may start and spread more easily than normal.
During the Wednesday/Thursday period...Lee side troughing will
develop across the Western Plains which should allow a fairly
quick warm up to ensue. Temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday
should reach the upper 70s to low 80s with higher temperatures in
the southwest and cooler northeast. Another frontal boundary is
forecast to push through the middle-south on Friday. At this
juncture...precipitation chances have been kept very low given dry
forecast soundings along and ahead of the boundary. A very cool
airmass will follow the frontal passage as another strong
Canadian high pressure system drops south into the Ohio Valley.
The middle-south will not feel its full influence...but Saturday
night will likely be the coolest night of the fall season so far.
Low temperatures will reach the upper 30s along the Tennessee
River valley with low and middle 40s points south and southwest.
The long-term continues to look dry. There does not appear to be
any looming abnormally cold air at this time and in fact...the
long-range looks relatively mild.
06z taf cycle
VFR. Light northwest winds will increase to 8-10
kts...occasionally gusty...by middle morning on Monday. Winds will
diminish by 14/00z.