Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
554 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 510 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
Short term...today through Thursday... winter weather has finally
left the mid-south...well at least for the next several days. Cold
Arctic high pressure will continue to move in overnight and settle
in for the next few days. Temperatures will remain quite
cold...with highs only in the 30s for today and trending slightly
warmer on Wednesday. A dry cold front will push through the region
from the north on Wednesday night...sending a shot of cold
reinforcing air into the mid-south. Temperatures on Thursday
morning will be the coldest of they have been in awhile...with
lows in the teens and low 20s across the entire mid-south.
Long term...Friday through Monday...meanwhile out west...a
cutoff low pressure system will continue to churn just off the
West Coast before trekking eastward on Thursday. This system will
be quite progressive and track across The Rockies before ejecting
as a shortwave trough into the Great Plains by Friday afternoon.
Directly behind this wave...a longwave trough will drop down
southeastward from the Pacific northwest pushing a mature surface
cyclone and cold front through the the mid-south. This will
generate a wet and rainy weekend for the region. Rain will begin
to move in by Friday night and move out by Sunday afternoon. For
now it looks like just a cold rain with temperatures mostly in the
40s. The air behind this front will not be quite as cold as the
last system due to its Pacific origination...so not expecting any
kind of winter precipitation on the backside of this system. High
pressure will build in behind the front by Sunday afternoon.
Early next week...conditions will remain dry and temperatures
should rebound to near normal highs by Tuesday finally. By
Wednesday...the jet stream will become more amplified and the
polar vortex will push southward once again. As it does...it
wouldn't be surprising to see another cold and wet system move in
by late next week.
12z taf cycle
Clouds will continue to clear from the west this morning. VFR ceilings
have returned to kjbr...kmem...and kmkl and will persist through
the next 24 hours. Temporary IFR ceilings will quickly improve to VFR
at ktup by 13z and continue through Wednesday morning. No
precipitation is anticipated through this taf cycle.
Winds will be brisk from the northwest this morning before
diminishing later today and becoming calm overnight as high
pressure settles over the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 37 24 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
mkl 36 19 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
jbr 33 20 37 16 / 0 0 0 0
tup 41 24 49 23 / 0 0 0 0