Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
609 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
updated to add 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
High pressure remains located over the Ohio Valley this afternoon.
The high will gradually move northeast tonight into Friday. This
will allow surface winds to turn around to the southeast across the
midsouth on Friday. In addition...an upper ridge will nudge into
the area on Friday. The combination of the southerly winds and the
upper ridge will produce warmer highs across the County Warning Area Friday
afternoon. Expect readings in the upper 80s.
An upper trough will push in from the Central Plains Friday night as
an easterly tropical wave moves into northeast Mississippi. The
combination will produce a broad upper trough over the area over the
weekend. Small chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur
over County Warning Area with best chances occurring over northeast Arkansas and
northeast Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
By early next week into the middle of next week...expect chances
of showers and thunderstorms to diminish as decent subsidence
will occur over the area as Erika moves northward along the east
side of Florida with another weak upper low moving over Texas.
Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North-northeast/NE winds
between 7-10 kts will diminish this evening to 4 kts or less and
veer and increase to southeast winds between 6-9 kts after 28/16z.