Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1225 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below.
Discussion... /issued 924 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014/
Skies have become mostly sunny across the forecast area this
morning with temperatures in the lower 60s to around 70 degrees.
Dense fog has ended over the region and the dense fog advisory has
been allowed to expire. Dry and warm weather will be found for the
remainder of the day. Updated forecast to remove mention of dense
Previous discussion... /issued 630 am CDT Friday Sep 19 2014/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the middle
south from the west today. This should keep conditions dry with
warmer temperatures expected later today. High temperatures should
reach into the lower 80s north to upper 80s south. The greatest
concern early this morning will be potential for dense fog. This
potential will be greatest across north Mississippi where
conditions are most favorable with moist ground conditions and a
decoupled atmosphere. This area will be monitored for a possible
dense fog advisory if visibilities lower further. Any fog should
mix out by middle morning with skies becoming partly sunny.
Upper level high pressure will remain over the middle south into
Saturday. Dry conditions should continue but as winds turn back
from the south expect warmer and more humid conditions.
Temperatures should be above seasonal levels through the first
half of the weekend...with highs on Saturday in the middle to
upper 80s and lows in the 60s.
A deepening upper level shortwave trough will move southeast
across the Great Lakes Sunday and into the Middle Atlantic States by
Monday. This will help to drive a cold front across the middle south
Sunday and Sunday night. There should be enough lift and moisture
along and ahead of the front to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. Conditions should remain
warm and humid in advance of the front.
Canadian high pressure should build over the area behind the front
with a return to dry...cooler...and less humid conditions. This
pleasant weather should persist through the first half of next
week. High temperatures should range from the upper 70s to lower
80s...with lows in the 50s and 60s through the extended forecast
18z taf (19/18z-20/18z)
VFR conditions will occur much of the period. Areas of fog forming
late tonight with kmkl and ktup possibly IFR...kmem and kjbr
possibly MVFR. Light winds today and tonight gradually turning to
the southeast. Winds Saturday morning southerly around 7 kts.