Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
510 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
updated to add 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
Currently...high pressure prevails across the area with sunny
skies and light winds. Temperatures range from the lower 30s over the
snow/sleet/ice pack of NE Arkansas/MO bootheel/northwest Tennessee to lower 40s in NE
Tonight through Thursday night...below normal temperatures through this
period. A cold night is on tap with clear skies and light winds.
Lows around 20 north to middle 20s south. Temperatures will warm slightly on
Wednesday...though still well below normal...ahead of a
reinforcing cold front which will move through by afternoon. A
brisk northwest breeze will be noticeably after noon time. Another Arctic
high will settle over the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
Wednesday night will be the coldest of the season so far with middle
teens north to lower 20s south. Thursday will be another cold day
with 30s to lower 40s. High pressure will start to retreat
Thursday night but not before another night in the 20s.
Friday through Saturday night...models are still in good agreement
with low pressure moving into the Red River valley on Friday and
overrunning developing across the midsouth. By Friday afternoon
precipitation chances will be increasing across the area. Right now it
looks like the Arctic air will retreat before the precipitation moves in
but will need to watch this. Temperatures will be a little warmer under
southerly flow but not too warm with clouds thickening and rain
moving in. Friday night looks very wet as lows pressure moves
across the midsouth. Upped probability of precipitation to categorical. Rain will taper
off on Saturday though clouds and some drizzle will remain as
cooler air starts to filter in. Clearing and colder conds expected
by Sunday morning.
Sunday through Tuesday...dry through the period with below normal
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours. Light/nearly
calm winds will increase to northwest winds between 6-9 kts after
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 25 44 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
mkl 20 42 16 39 / 0 0 0 0
jbr 20 37 14 32 / 0 0 0 0
tup 24 49 22 45 / 0 0 0 0