Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
655 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015
Updated for 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015/
Skies remain mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure was
centered over western Kentucky this afternoon. This high will move
east of the region tonight. Temperatures will not be nearly as
chilly as this morning with lows Saturday morning mainly in the
On Saturday...winds will start to become more southerly which will
bring warmer and more humid air into the region. Temperatures will
be closer to normal levels with highs mainly in the lower 80s. By
Saturday night a warm front will start to lift north through the
Southern Plains and much of Arkansas. Some thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the warm front and some of
this activity may reach western sections of the forecast area.
On Sunday...a cold front will be moving into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front and some of
this activity may move into the forecast area with the best chance
of rain over areas west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures
will be a little warmer with highs in the low to middle 80s. As the
cold front moves closer to the forecast area Sunday night there
will be a better chance of thunderstorms.
On Monday...the cold front will be closer to the forecast area so
this will be the most likely period for thunderstorms. The cold
front will weaken before it reaches the forecast area so rain
chances will diminish on Monday night.
By Tuesday...an upper level low is forecast to move across eastern
Kansas and into Missouri. This will produce more thunderstorms
across the forecast area for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The upper
low will move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with a decreasing
chance of thunderstorms.
The weather pattern becomes more Summer like for Thursday and next
Friday with a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms with
temperatures close to normal levels.
18z taf cycle
VFR. Light winds overnight becoming southeast 6-8 kts Saturday.