Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
256 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014
Skies are mostly cloudy over northern sections of the forecast
area and mostly sunny elsewhere. Temperatures vary quite a bit due
to cloud cover with readings ranging from the upper 60s to the
upper 80s. Some showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
the forecast area this afternoon mainly over areas south of
Interstate 40. This activity has formed north of a stationary
front which currently extends from south Georgia across northern
Louisiana and into West Texas.
As the front begins to move south tonight the threat of additional
thunderstorm development will diminish this evening. High pressure
will be over the New England states on Friday which will keep
things dry over the region. Temperatures will be close to normal
levels on Friday with highs mainly in the middle 80s. Dry weather
will continue into Saturday as well. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
By Sunday...a cold front will approach the region. Moisture will
be somewhat limited ahead of the front so there will be only a
small chance of thunderstorms over the forecast area. Temperatures
will be a little cooler on Sunday with increased cloud cover with
highs in the middle to upper 80s. As the front moves out of the
forecast area Sunday night the chance of rain will diminish.
By Monday...somewhat cooler and drier air will makes its way into
the forecast area. High pressure will start to build into the
region on Monday and remain over the eastern U.S. For much of next
week. As a result dry weather will continue from Monday through
next Thursday. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below
normal through this period with highs generally in the low to middle 80s.
18z taf cycle
Upper level trough and weak 925mb boundary have continued to
produce convection over northwest Tennessee early this afternoon. This
area will likely affect the mkl area by 1730-18z. Kept tempo for
-tsra in at mkl until 19z. After 19z greatest potential for convection
today will be over mem/tup terminals however coverage should be
sparse...so just kept the thunderstorms in the vicinity in for both terminals through 23-00z.
After shortwave trough moves to the southeast more upper level
ridging moves in which is expected to keep mention of
precipitation out of all tafs beyond 00z. With light winds
overnight a little br/fog could form...adjusted times to
9-13z...with lowest visible of 2-3sm at tup/mkl. Beyond 13z VFR
expected...after 15z light winds shifting more east-east-southeast at all locations
as high to the north moves east.