Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
623 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
updated for 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/
As of 3pm...a gorgeous fall day...correction middle Summer day...is
taking place across the mid-south. Temperatures are very mild with
readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Brisk northerly winds are
ushering in a cooler and noticeably drier airmass from the north.
A Post-frontal strato-cumulus deck resides over portions of north
Mississippi with Crystal clear blue skies elsewhere.
Short term...tonight through Sunday morning...
upper 50 dewpoints will remain in place overnight and clear skies
and northeast winds will allow a large portion of the area to drop
into the lower 60s overnight...with a few spots in the upper 50s.
Patchy fog will be possible mainly along and near the Tennessee
River overnight where winds will become light and variable. By
tomorrow afternoon...high pressure will already begin to shift
east and winds will shift around to the south. Temperatures will
generally be in the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints will be on the
By Saturday...slight upper level ridging will keep the atmosphere
capped and temperatures will rise to near normal highs for this
time of year. Highs will be in the low to middle 90s areawide. By
Sunday morning...upper level ridging will shift back west to the
Central Plains and northwest flow will position itself over the
Long term...Sunday through early next week...
a longwave trough will drop down across the Great Lakes region
and northwest flow will develop over the upper Mississippi
Valley. This will help push a cold front down through the lower
Mississippi Valley. The front is expected to move into the middle-
south by late Sunday evening and push through the region by Monday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along
the front...but latest model runs show much less coverage than
previous runs. However...it still appears that a few strong to
severe storms will be possible with the frontal passage as a
moderately unstable airmass will be in place.
A not so rare...at least for this Summer...cool Canadian airmass
will move into middle-south by next Tuesday and remain in place
through at least Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be 10 to
15 degrees below normal once again with noticeably drier and
VFR...with the exception of light ground fog at mkl and tup near
sunrise. Winds will be light and mainly from north through east.