Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
314 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015
An upper level trough remains over the eastern one third of the
nation this morning as upper ridging remains centered over The
Four Corners region. At the surface...high pressure remains over
the middle south and will continue to provide dry and pleasant middle
Summer weather conditions over the region through the weekend.
Near normal temperatures will be accompanied by lower humidity
values through Sunday under mostly sunny skies.
The upper level ridging currently over the western states will
build eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early next
week as surface high pressure slides eastward. Low level southerly
flow will return and allow for humidity levels to increase. Hotter
temperatures into the middle 90s can also be expected for next
Monday and Tuesday as increased humidity pushes heat index values
above 100 degrees once again. At this time...it appears that
values will remain just below heat advisory criteria...but this
will need to be monitored closely.
The upper ridge breaks down again by the middle of next week as a
weak cold front moves into the region and stalls. A series of
upper level shortwave disturbances will move through northwest
flow aloft and help to increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the middle south for the middle to end of next
week. Temperatures should cool some but with continued high
humidity levels for the end of the extended forecast period due to
increased cloud cover and rain chances.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. NE winds will
increase to 7-10 kts possibly with higher gusts between 14z-00z.