Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
404 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015
the recent wet pattern will continue today...courtesy of an
unseasonal upper level longwave trough over the MS River Valley.
Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough
centered over Iowa. This feature will deamplify and lift east to
the southern Great Lakes today...while a positively tilted middle level
trough axis drops through the lower and middle MS river valleys.
This midlevel trough axis will aid in airmass destabilization over
the midsouth today...ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
By late this evening... the cold front will likely extend along
the i40 corridor...with greatest rain chances occuring along and
south of the front.
Saturday will mark the beginning of weakening flow aloft...as the
southern extension of the positively tilted trough is separated
from its northern branch component. Daytime convective inhibition
will remain weak...especially over north MS...in in the vicinity
of the upper trough axis.
Upper level heights will gradually build during the early part of
next week...but still remain below climatological norms. GFS forecasts
precipitable water values near 2 inches...with weak daytime
convective inhibition. Daytime temperatures will likely warm to a few
degrees shy of normal by midweek...but will be locally affected
by scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will be found during most of the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms are moving across mainly the northern
half of the forecast area but should increase in areal coverage
overnight. More thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
day and early evening hours on Friday. Any of the thunderstorms
may produce a brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Winds will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots for much
of the forecast period.