Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015
06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 935 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015/
Discussion...water vapor satellite trends this evening place an
elongated upper level low near southwest Georgia. A shortwave
trough rotating around the upper level low is gradually rotating
through the middle south this evening. Drizzle has developed across
portions of west Tennessee near the Mississippi River and the
Missouri bootheel as low level moisture has increased in the
boundary layer below a subsidence inversion. As a result...have
updated forecast to include occasional drizzle across the
above mentioned areas for the remainder of the night.
Otherwise...the remainder of the forecast remains on track.
Updated grids already available.
Previous discussion... /issued 258 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015/
An upper level low pressure system will continue to provide
abundant cloud cover to the midsouth for at least another 24
hours. The clouds and northerly winds have kept temperatures
rather chilly today. Expect a few locations to set record low
maximums today. Don/T expect temperatures to drop too much
overnight with the cloud cover and gusty winds but have lowered a
tad from previous forecast due to highs not getting as warm today.
A few showers will still be possible along the Tennessee River in
west Tennessee as well as northeast Mississippi. Current radar
shows a few showers just east of the Tennessee River.
Clouds may begin to break up late Sunday afternoon...likely across
portions of west Tennessee first...as the upper low moves further
away. This should allow highs to reach into at least the lower
By Monday...an upper ridge will build into the area. This will
allow for a gradual warming trend to occur. Highs on Monday will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Thursday...expect most
locations to be in the middle 80s.
Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS show a cold front moving into the area on
Friday. However...the models differ on exactly what will happen
with the front beyond Friday. The European model (ecmwf) pushes the front through
the midsouth quickly and then builds a surface high into the area. On
the other hand...the GFS stalls the front over the area as a surface
low develops along it. Thus...if the European model (ecmwf) is correct...next
Saturday could be warm and dry. However cool and wet conditions
could occur if the GFS is correct. For now will try to blend
between the two with small chances for showers and near normal
06z taf cycle
Low end MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings will be common for the rest
of tonight...especially at kmkl and ktup. Winds will remain
greater than 8 kts overnight from the north. There may also be
periods of drizzle and reduced visibilities at times.
Ceilings will be slow to improve on Sunday with MVFR ceilings persisting
through much of the day. There may be some improvements to VFR
late in the forecast period...especially kjbr and kmem. Winds will
remain brisk from the north around 10 kts.
Ceilings should lower again Sunday evening as northeast low level
winds lock in stratus over the taf sites. Expecting mainly MVFR
ceilings to redevelop and there may be visibility reductions as
well...especially at eastern taf sites. Winds will diminish in
intensity through the evening.