Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1116 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015
Aviation discussion updated for 06z tafs below...
Previous discussion... /issued 711 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015/
Update to add slight chance for snow showers this evening across
A weak shortwave embedded within cyclonic flow aloft will help to
trigger a few snow showers across portions of northwest Tennessee
this evening. At this time...not expecting much in the way of
accumulations and any snow shower activity should diminish before
midnight. Otherwise most of the remainder of the region may see a
few flurries but nothing of consequence. Colder temperatures will
continue to filter south through the night with cold weather to
continue into Friday.
Updated zones and grids have been sent.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015/
Discussion...visible satellite trends this afternoon indicate a
broad area of Post-frontal low clouds extending across much of the
middle south. Temperatures have remained nearly steady or have
slightly fallen today. As of 3 PM CST...temperatures are in the
30s at most locations. Precipitation chances for the latter half
of the upcoming weekend into next week is the primary challenge in
this afternoon/S forecast.
Short term...(tonight through saturday)...a ridge of high
pressure will bring mainly precipitation free weather to the middle
south through Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will gradually
weaken tonight as temperatures fall into the teens to lower 20s.
Wind chill values may approach zero late tonight towards daybreak
Friday. However...at this time think readings may remain just
below advisory criteria and will let evening shift monitor trends
and issue one if winds continue to remain up throughout the night.
Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler...especially north of I-40
with a moderation of temperatures back into the 40s along and
south of I-40 by Saturday.
Long term...(saturday night through thursday)...long term models
indicate southwest upper level flow will begin to develop across
the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night...especially west of
the Mississippi River. Some of this precipitation may start out
Saturday night as mixed precipitation but change over to rain as
temperatures warm throughout the day. Another cold front is
anticipated to drop into the lower Mississippi Valley next
week and stall out before moving back north as a warm front.
Another cold front will pass through the region by the middle of
next week. This will result in chances for precipitation from
early to middle week along with the potential for some thunderstorms.
However...timing differences remain and subsequent confidence of
strong/severe thunderstorm potential remains low at this time.
High temperatures Tuesday may reach the upper 60s to lower 70s
south of I-40.
06z taf cycle
Ceilings have lifted just above MVFR threshold at all sites except tup
where they should hold through Friday morning. The back edge of
the cloud deck will exit jbr within the next few hours but higher
clouds should overspread the area shortly thereafter. Winds will
also stay up through the taf valid period at or near 10kts from
the northeast. Guidance is showing a middle level cloud deck moving
back into the midsouth after 00z Saturday though VFR conditions