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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
322 PM CDT Friday Jul 11 2014

Discussion...

Modest model differences through the next few days creating a
slight bit of forecast uncertainty...mainly with very weak upper
level feature currently over southeast Arkansas/northwest MS. The GFS and Euro models
try to keep it just a bit closer to the forecast area than the
NAM...and allow for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the far
SW portions of the region...the relative humidity fields for those models do not
really show deep moisture...and with ridging looking at bulging
into the region the drier forecast of the NAM looks more
reasonable. Possible deeper moisture may slide under the ridge
near the MS/Alabama border on Sunday and create conditions for isolated
shwrs/tstms.

Temperatures over the weekend will be into the 90s across the forecast
area...with dewpoints rebounding into the 70s. This will create
apparent temperatures in excess of 100...mainly in the 102-103 range
which is just below advisory criteria...but can definitely take
its toll on the body.

Cold front being pushed by deep and powerful trough will start to
working tinto the region by early Monday...showers and
thunderstorms will be possible into early Tuesday. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe...some limits on severe storms
could be excessive cloud cover and rainfall across the region
that will limit heating and destabilization. Something to watch as
we move through the weekend. Cooler and drier air will rush into
the midsouth Tuesday into wednesdau with temperatures nearly 10 degrees
or more below normal with very comfortable dewpoints maybe into
the 50s thanks to the northerly flow of the deep trough that will
be moving across the eastern Continental U.S..

Trough moves out towards the end of next week and gradual rise in
temperatures and dewpoints as southerly flow returns...possible that warm
front moves through late next week with shower and thunderstorms chances
on next Friday and into the weekend. A few models starting to hint
at that solution...will let midnight shift take second look and
make adjustments if this wetter solution holds consistent. -Abs

&&

Aviation...

18z taf cycle (11/18z-12/18z)

VFR conditions will occur through much of the period. The exception
will be early morning fog with MVFR visibilities...occasionally
IFR...at kmkl and possibly MVFR at ktup and kjbr. Light winds
through the period.

Jcl

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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