Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1134 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016
06z aviation discussion update.
Previous discussion... /issued 815 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016/
updated to increase cloud cover and adjust evening temperatures.
Middle and high level moisture will continue to cross the Ozarks and
midsouth tonight ahead of an upper level disturbance. In addition
temperatures have nose dived across portions of northeast
Mississippi and west Tennessee despite the cloud cover. From this
have increased sky cover wording to mostly cloudy skies overnight
and lowered evening temperatures.
Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CST Friday Feb 5 2016/
Quiet and cool weather continues across the mid-south...lasting
through the weekend...before colder weather moves in next week.
Surface high pressure continues to dominate the region as a
departing shortwave exits off the eastern Seaboard. Another cool
night is expected with decent radiational cooling expected again
Similar high temperatures are expected both Saturday and Sunday under
a regime analogous to that of today. Highs in the middle-50s are
expected through the weekend.
A frontal boundary will approach the region late Sunday night
which will usher in cooler weather for the beginning of next week
as very deep longwave troughing develops across the eastern Continental U.S..
snow prospects continues to decrease as temperature profiles
simply look too warm when compared to when the bulk of the precipitation
moves through the region. Areas of middle Tennessee stand a better
chance to see at least light snowfall. This could change through
time but the trend has been for precipitation to progress through more
Uncertainty abounds in the extended forecast with larger than
normal spread which is shown well in ensemble guidance. Opted for
a blend of all aspects of the forecast.
06z taf cycle
VFR ceilings and visibilities along with light winds will continue through
the next 24 hours.