Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1027 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
Discussion...15z surface analysis places a surface low over
northeast Texas this morning. Meanwhile...12z upper air plots
indicate a broad upper level trough encompassing the eastern half
of the United States. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper
level trough is moving across Mississippi. Knqa/kgwx WSR-88D
radar trends indicate some light returns the only rain occurring
at jbr currently.
The surface low will gradually move from northeast Texas into
western Arkansas later today. Will make some adjustments lower
rain chances somewhat but keep best probabilities across portions
of northwest Mississippi. Will also make adjustments to any other
elements as needed to account for short term trends.
Otherwise...forecast overall in good shape.
Updated grids will be available shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 654 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 414 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
An upper level shortwave will track across Arkansas and MS today while
an associated surface low tracks eastward just south of the
shortwave along a stationary frontal boundary. Stratiform light
rain will be the dominate weather with this system over the SW
part of the forecast area tapering off to patchy light rain to
the northwest. Weak instability may allow for an isolated thunderstorm
across the extreme north part of the forecast area this
afternoon...depending if there is enough sun. Otherwise...today
will be cloudy and unseasonably cool for July.
The shortwave will move east of the area tonight and Friday...so
the main chance of rain will also decrease from west to east. A
slight decrease in clouds over the next few days will allow for
more convective type of precipitation again. A broad upper trough will
remain into the weekend...so temperatures will remain below normal
during the period.
An upper ridge out west will extend into the area by early next
week...so drier and more typical warm summerlike conditions will
return with highs above 90 degrees.
12z taf cycle
Upper level disturbance will move through the region today and
tonight. Scattered rain will spread across kjbr and kmem this
morning with occasional MVFR conds. Otherwise expect mainly VFR conds
this afternoon through the evening. Patchy fog is possible later
tonight at kmkl...kjbr and ktup.