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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1203 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015


Updated for the 06z aviation discussion


Previous discussion... /issued 950 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/


Clouds have been slow to spread into the midsouth this evening
allowing temperatures to fall more than expected. It will be a
chilly late April night across the region with lows in the 40s and
lower 50s. Decreased overnight low temperatures slightly in many
locations. Light to moderate northeast winds will persist. Rain
remains well south and west of the midsouth this evening. Delayed
the chance of rain until late tonight and trimmed the area for
mentionable rain tonight back to mainly just include east central
Arkansas and portions of northwest MS. Latest models including the hrrr
and 00z NAM indicate rain just beginning to spread into these
areas late tonight. Updated zone forecasts and grids have already
been send.


Previous discussion... /issued 423 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/


Skies have temporarily cleared across the midsouth other than some
high thin level clouds. Updated the sky cover grids and zone
forecasts to indicate increasing clouds from the west tonight.


Discussion... /issued 332 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/

An upper level low pressure will move east from the Texas
Panhandle tonight and across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
valleys through Wednesday. Clouds will increase later tonight with
rain chances for southwestern zones by sunrise. Rain chances will
continue to increase on Tuesday with the greatest rain potential
across areas along and south of Interstate 40. As the low makes
its closest approach Tuesday night...rain chances will increase
areawide. As the upper low pulls east on Wednesday...rain chances
will end from west to east with slow clearing by late in the day.
Temperatures should remain below normal through middle week with
lowered cover...and rain chances.

The lowered middle level heights will be reinforced by another upper
level low pressure system dropping south into the Tennessee Valley
from the Great Lakes region by Thursday. This will keep cool
temperatures in place and bring slight chances for rain showers
across eastern sections near the Tennessee River. This upper level
low should move east by Friday with upper ridging building back
over the middle south from the west.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
for next weekend. This will result in dry weather conditions along
with temperatures rebounding back to near or slightly above
average for early may.



06z taf cycle

VFR conditions should persist for much of the forecast period.
Rain will start to move into southern sections of the forecast
area by late Tuesday morning but it now appears that the rain may
only reach into north Mississippi. Winds should remain mainly
from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...


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