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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
531 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014

Update...aviation discussion.



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Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/

Currently... as of 3pm temperatures are mainly in the middle to
lowers 50s throughout the region. Southerly flow in the lower
levels of the atmosphere is transporting moist air from the Gulf
of Mexico into the region resulting in mostly cloudy skies for
much of the midsouth. The notable events in this forecast package
include the wet weekend ahead... the below normal temperatures
next week... and the possible wintry precipitation for some areas
late next week.

Short term... clouds will continue to increase overnight ahead of
an approaching surface cold front associated with an upper level
low currently crossing the Central Plains. Precipitation chances
will also increase from west to east overnight ahead of the
front. Deep moisture will continue to surge into the region from
the south and coupled with several upper level shortwaves
moving through the region...will make for a wet weekend for the
lower Mississippi Valley region. Temperatures will be above
average on Saturday and near normal on Sunday.

Long term... cooler drier air will begin to filter into the
midsouth on Sunday as rain chances begin to decrease from west to
east. The midsouth should be rain free by Sunday night. Temperatures will
be normal on Monday. A dry cold front will move through the region
on Wednesday. Expect well below normal temperatures for new years
evening and New Years Day. Both models agree that a disturbance with
origins over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will begin to move
into the area on Thursday increasing chances for precipitation.
The moisture and lift associated with this disturbance combined
with the cold air that should be already in place could result in
some wintry precipitation north of the i40 corridor Thursday night/Friday
morning.

Jpm3

&&

Aviation...00z taf cycle

Deteriorating conditions are expected over the next 10 hours or
so resulting in MVFR ceilings by sunrise...and prevailing rain at all
sites for much of the day tomorrow. Rain may reduce visibility to
vrf levels for brief periods but prevailing visible should remain
MVFR. Winds will be from the south to southeast 5-10kt. Metar
issues continue at tup....will not issue any amendments until
after maintenance can remedy the problem.

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

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