Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
912 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Discussion...
have sent an update to remove pops across most areas with the
exception being the far wrn 1/3 of the County warning forecast area where isold rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
will be possible for a few more hours.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

Discussion...
see aviation discussion below.

Aviation...
thunderstorms that moved thru the maf area have dissipated, however
there are cells developing about 30 ESE of maf. These are developing
near an outflow boundary, but are not expected to make it to maf.
Winds will settle back to E-se at mostly less than 10 mph tonight.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

Discussion...as of 2:15 PM CDT Tuesday...kmaf radar is showing
convection breaking out in the Sacramento mtns...northern Lea
County...and north of the northern tier of counties in the County Warning Area
(gaines...Dawson...Borden...and scurry). There is also an isolated
cell west-southwest of Big Spring. The convection north of the County Warning Area and near
Big Spring wasn't forecast on any of the models.

Even though the 12z maf sounding showed less mid level moisture
recent water vapor imagery is showing that the mid level moisture
has been increasing. There also could be a subtle shortwave in the
water vapor imagery moving south which could be the reason why
there is convection moving south thru the Panhandle.

Convection will diminish overnight as the strong ridge remains
parked over northern New Mexico. After the convection this
evening...have kept the County Warning Area dry right through next weekend and
into early next week...as mid level moisture should decrease in
the mid/upper level east-northeast flow.

Concerning the hot temperatures...will let the heat advisory
expire at 12z Wed morning as the thermal ridge stays a little
further west. While heat advisory criteria might be met in a few
locations...it does not seem as widespread as the past couple of
days. The thermal ridge will edge east Friday and Saturday...which
will result in widespread 100+ temps...with 105+ in The Trans
Pecos and along portions of the Rio Grande River valley. Even
though the atmosphere will be drier...overnight lows could stay at
or above 75 degrees. A heat advisory might be needed for
Friday/Saturday.

Strobin

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 73 99 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
Big Spring Texas 76 102 76 100 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad nm 74 100 72 102 / 20 10 0 0
Dryden Texas 79 103 80 103 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Stockton Texas 75 97 74 99 / 10 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass Texas 69 89 69 93 / 20 10 0 10
Hobbs nm 70 97 70 98 / 10 10 0 0
Marfa Texas 63 89 64 91 / 10 10 0 10
Midland International Airport Texas 74 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa Texas 75 99 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
Wink Texas 76 101 75 102 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...heat advisory until 7 am CDT Wednesday for the following zones...
Big Bend area...Presidio valley...Terrell.



&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations