Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1144 am CST Fri Dec 20 2013
18z taf issuance...
the major aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low
cigs/vsbys and -ra/thunderstorms and rain possible through tonight at all sites.
Currently, the cold front is draped from khob to kmaf with northeast
winds around 10-12kt behind the front. Areas of generally light rain
moving NE across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin however
-ra should fill in to the southwest this afternoon and persist
through this evening. Think the possibility of thunderstorms and rain still exists
during the late afternoon/early evening hours at kfst so will
continue to mention in tempo there. Otherwise, removed mention of
thunderstorms and rain at all other terminals. Cigs and vsbys will continue to
deteriorate throughout the afternoon and vary mainly between MVFR
and IFR conditions through early Saturday morning when westerly
winds begin to pick up across the region. Expect winds of aoa 15kt
sustained with gusts up to 25-30kt. Kept sustained speeds closer to
15kt for now but this may need to be increased.
Previous discussion... /issued 436 am CST Fri Dec 20 2013/
Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight
with strong winds on Saturday.
A cutoff upper low over the northern baja this morning will begin to
move east today. We have seen an increase in mid and high level
clouds overnight thanks to the strong southwesterly flow aloft. Low
level moisture has also moved into the Permian Basin and lower trans
Pecos transported by southeasterly sfc winds. A cold front was
moving south through the Texas Panhandle and was situated from about
Lubbock to Wichita Falls at 4 am CST. The front will slowly continue
south today before stalling somewhere near the I-10 corridor. The
front is stronger and colder than the models have shown so have
lowered temps for today. Temperatures will remain in the 40s and 50s
north of the front while locations to the south will reach the 60s
Rain should begin to develop later this morning as strong lift
arrives ahead of the storm system. The heaviest rain will be focused
along and north of the cold front. Most locations will see around
0.5" of rain with some seeing over 1". A few of the thunderstorms
may be capable of producing small hail given steep midlevel lapse
rates and very strong bulk shear.
Precip should end for the most part Saturday morning as the upper
trough lifts to the north. A strong jet will develop on the backside
of the low Saturday afternoon. This combined with a few breaks in
the clouds will allow very strong westerly winds to mix down
across the mountainous areas and the adjacent plains. Models
indicate 700mb winds of 40-50 kts will be possible across these
areas. A high wind watch has been issued from the Guadalupe
Mountains down to the Davis Mountains with a Wind Advisory likely
needed later for areas west of the Pecos River.
Temperatures will remain mild Saturday with the strong westerly
winds before another front arrives on Sunday. Cooler conditions
Sunday will moderate a bit Monday and Tuesday as an upper trough
moves across the Great Lakes. Another cold front is expected
Christmas day with colder temperatures filling in behind it. Travel
conditions still look great with no precipitation expected next
nm...high wind watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
the following zones... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Texas...high wind watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
for the following zones... Davis/Apache Mountains area...
Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor.