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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1214 am CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Discussion...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

Sfc analysis shows the cold front about midway thru the fa,
satellite imagery showing stratus trying to develop southeast of kmaf.
Latest buffer soundings and hrrr keep this low cloud east and S of
kmaf, and develop MVFR cigs at kfst ~09-14z, before scattering
out. Otherwise, sfc flow will veer to southeast over the next 24 hours.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

Discussion...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

Not much change this evening, as VFR flight conditions are
expected to prevail tonight. Toward daybreak, relative humidity progs indicate
the potential for high end MVFR ceilings, mainly affecting kfst
and kpeq, with slightly lesser confidence for kcnm and kink. Have
maintained the going tempos in the 08-13z time frame for these
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail Friday, with winds
remaining around 10-15kt and gradually veering to the east through
the period. Some showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south
Friday morning, though the low chance precludes mention in the
current taf.



Previous discussion... /issued 209 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

Discussion...
an upper ridge axis extending from the 4 corners region up across
Montana will move east the next couple of days with mild wx for the
region. Behind this ridge an upper trough will move onto the West
Coast and bring increasing chances of rain to the area starting
late in the weekend. By midweek the next upper ridge begins to
build in from the west as dry wx returns.

A cold front was moving through the area as of early afternoon with
a gusty north wind behind it. As of 19z the front was just passing
through maf. Temps will be cooler tonight and tomorrow behind the
front. Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s as
the wind comes around to the NE. Highs tomorrow will be it the 60s
with 70s possible closer to the Rio Grande. Unless a last minute
shower pops up... Midland will officially end the month of October
with only a trace of precipitation. This will keep 2014 on track
for one of the 10 driest years on record.

Could see a few showers or storms tonight into tomorrow over the
lower trans Pecos with the front but not expecting much from this.
Models do develop some light qpf and may be enough moisture south to
work with. A better chance of rain looks to be Sunday night through
Tuesday night with the upper trough approaching. Models not in
agreement as to the strength of the next trough so for now will keep
chance pops as they are.

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

44

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