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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
412 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

thunderstorms have developed in slightly higher 850mb Theta-E air
and also in closer proximity to the current position of the
surface trough as indicated in the latest observations. Thus, we
have shifted the best chances for thunderstorms into the eastern
portions of Brewster County, Pecos County, and the western half of
Terrell County. Training thunderstorms are evident on radar across
these areas. This certainly supports the potential for localized
flooding late this afternoon and into the evening hours.


Previous discussion... /issued 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/


Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf Coast states. This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture. The
increase in moisture along with an increase in Omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the County Warning Area this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with cape values around or above
1,000 j/kg. Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development. Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to quantitative precipitation forecast amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in severe weather potential statement.
The precipitable water value on the 12z maf sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain. High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific northwest. The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge. This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the County Warning Area and for shortwaves to
move over the region. This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the County Warning Area through
the forecast period. High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge. During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the northern plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the County Warning Area. Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 72 95 72 93 / 30 10 10 20
Big Spring Texas 74 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 10
Carlsbad nm 70 94 71 92 / 30 20 20 30
Dryden Texas 75 97 73 95 / 50 10 10 10
Fort Stockton Texas 73 95 72 94 / 50 20 10 20
Guadalupe Pass Texas 65 87 64 84 / 30 30 30 40
Hobbs nm 68 93 68 90 / 30 20 20 20
Marfa Texas 62 87 63 85 / 30 40 40 40
Midland International Airport Texas 73 94 73 93 / 30 10 10 10
Odessa Texas 73 94 74 93 / 30 10 10 10
Wink Texas 76 97 75 97 / 30 20 20 20


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...




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