Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
629 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014
00z taf issuance...
no major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions
will persist at all terminals. Gusty north winds beginning to
diminish across the region this evening as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes. Some bldu still being reported at maf however vsby
generally remains above 6sm therefore did not include in the taf.
Winds will decrease below 10kt overnight then increase from the
southwest Monday afternoon to near 12-15kt sustained with higher
gusts up to 20-25kt. Otherwise...skies will remain mostly clear
through this taf cycle.
Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
the advisory has been allowed to expire and the warning for the
gdp mountains has been cancelled.
we have removed the remaining headlines for today from products
with the expiration of the advisory and cancellation of the
warning for gdp mountains it will still be windy across the pb for
next few hours with some bldu...but winds are in a decreasing trend.
Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
Well we have seen it all in the past 24 hours. From a few strong
showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening to high winds overnight
to over half a foot of snow in the Davis Mountains this morning!
Luckily our weather will begin to calm down somewhat by tonight.
A mid level trough continues to deepen across Texas this afternoon
before heading out into the Gulf later tonight. Rain and snow have
ended in the mountains and lower trans Pecos, but strong northerly
winds continue across the area due to deep mixing. This is causing
some blowing dust, but most locations are seeing visibilities above
5 miles. The winds and blowing dust will quickly diminish around
sunset as a sfc high pressure briefly builds overhead tonight. Will
let the Wind Advisory expire on time and likely cancel the High Wind
Warning early for the Guadalupe mtns. Light winds and clear skies
should allow the temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s
overnight. If you brought any tender plants outside in the recent
warm weather, you may want to cover them in anticipation of a light
By Monday, we flip the Switch Back to warm ahead of another quick
moving upper trough. A Lee side low will develop in response to the
trough helping to increase winds from the southwest across the area.
Temperatures will shift back above normal with high in the 70s to
near 80 Monday afternoon. This will likely increase the fire danger
tomorrow afternoon, especially in parts of southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be stronger. Please see
the fire wx discussion below. As the trough crosses the plains it
will drag a cold front through late Tuesday with only modest
cooling behind it. Winds will not be as strong with this front,
but it will usher in below normal temps for Wednesday. Zonal mid
level flow takes over through the end of the week with quickly
moderating temperatures and continued dry conditions.
Westerly winds will bring a quick change to the cool temperatures
seen today, as winds shift back from the southwest tomorrow sending
highs back into the 70s. Surface low pressure in eastern Colorado
will create a fairly even pressure gradient across West Texas and
eastern New Mexico with surface winds generally 15 to 20 mph gusting
to 30 mph in the afternoon. This may bring critical fire conditions
to southeastern New Mexico Monday, but it will be low end with the
three hour duration requirement possibly not being met so will
continue the Fire Weather Watch and let the overnight shift make the
final determination. There will be poor humidity recovery Monday
night with another front early Tuesday morning causing a wind shift
from the north just after sunrise. Winds behind the front should
remain below 20 mph though the wind shift and very dry air behind
the front will be a concern.
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for the following zones... Guadalupe Mountains np/Lincoln
nf/lnz...southeast plains/blm Roswell/lnz.
Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for the following zones... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
and Highway 54 corridor.