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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper 
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance 
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4 
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it 
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down 
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and 
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and 
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE 
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have 
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s 
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have 
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb 
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely 
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and 
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher 
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak 
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see 
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this 
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip 
back across the western CWA.  

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the 
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of 
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the 
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good 
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will 
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave 
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect 
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect 
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy 
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1 
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest 
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash 
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand 
this watch both in coverage and time. 

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will 
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location 
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops 
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but 
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern 
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a 
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue 
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily 
dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  61  77  61  /  20  10  30  70 
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  80  61  /  10  10  20  60 
CARLSBAD NM                89  58  83  57  /  30  20  50  70 
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  85  66  /  10  10  30  40 
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  82  62  /  20  20  30  50 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  54  79  56  /  20  20  40  60 
HOBBS NM                   85  59  76  58  /  30  20  40  80 
MARFA TX                   83  48  80  50  /  30  20  20  50 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  63  78  62  /  10  10  30  60 
ODESSA TX                  86  62  78  62  /  20  10  30  70 
WINK TX                    91  62  82  62  /  30  20  40  70 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County 
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea 
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

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