Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
244 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Short term...tonight through Monday night

Main forecast item of note in the short term is the incoming front
later this weekend.

Moisture return will increase through the night and into
Saturday...leading to cloudy conditions to start off with in
western Arkansas on Saturday. There should be enough moisture
there to result in an isolated shower or two closer to the
Oklahoma border...but coverage should be limited enough to leave
precipitation wording out of the forecast for now. The result is that
Saturday should be dry across the forecast area for the most part.

The front will be on the Arkansas doorstep Sunday morning and will
shift south through the state during the day. Models keep coming
back drier and drier with this frontal passage...and have less
than two tenths of an inch of rain as it comes through. Sunday
high temperatures could be tricky depending on what time the front
comes through...but should generally see a typical diurnal curve
in central and southern parts of the state. Will fine tune this
with future forecast packages as timing becomes more clear. Behind
the front will be another cool air mass with considerably drier
air.

While highs on Sunday will be in the 80s to near 90...highs in the
70s to low 80s will be the case on Monday.

&&

Long term...Tuesday through Friday

Overall a dry and cool forecast is expected for the extended
period. Surface and upper high pressure will mainly dominate the
weather pattern that will affect the region. The surface high
pressure system will be centered off the the east of Arkansas...and
filter in cooler and dry air. Aloft the upper high pressure ridge
will also be centered to the east. An upper low pressure trough
and a possible system will be over the upper plains...but its
influence on Arkansas will be limited and gradual toward the end of the
week...if other than just some increasing clouds. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 63 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 20
Camden Arkansas 68 90 69 91 / 10 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 63 86 66 82 / 10 20 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 68 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 30
Little Rock Arkansas 67 90 71 91 / 10 10 10 30
Monticello Arkansas 68 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 68 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 62 87 67 84 / 10 10 20 20
Newport Arkansas 63 88 68 88 / 10 10 10 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 67 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 66 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 30
Searcy Arkansas 65 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 66 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...64 / long term...59

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations