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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
606 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Aviation...
a weak disturbance will move south of the state today spreading
high level moisture over the terminals. Widespread VFR conditions
are expected to continue with light winds.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 224 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016/

Short term...today through Sunday night
models remain consistent in advertising a split flow pattern
across the country with a storm system currently getting cut off
along the Red River. System clearly visible on moisture channel
imagery at this time with associated upper trough extending
northeast to the Great Lakes states.

Regional radars continue to show some generally light returns over
eastern Oklahoma but surface observations show little if any is
reaching the ground with temperature dew point spreads anywhere
from 6 to 12 degrees.

All high resolution and even the synoptic scale models take this cut
off low to the south of the US and as such the dry forecast will
continue. Afternoon humidity is expected to drop into the 30s and
with the entire state now listed in moderate fire danger category...
a Fire Danger Statement will be issued.

Upper trough axis will clear the area tonight with weak upper ridge
building in. This feature will be shunted quickly off to the east
on Sunday as attention turns to an approaching Arctic front. After
a slightly warmer day and breezier day Sunday...the front will
move through Sunday evening with considerably colder air spilling
in for the extended period. It looks like the front will move
through dry with even flurries hard to come by although a few can
not ruled out.

Long term period...Monday through Friday
overall...the long term period will feature rather benign
weather. Models are in good agreement showing a large trough
carving out a home across the eastern half of the lower 48.
Northerly flow from the surface through the upper levels will
usher in a fairly cold air mass to start the period off...and a
disturbance passing by early Monday may be enough to squeeze out
some flurries across far northern Arkansas during the morning
hours. Otherwise the long term looks to be dry.

By Thursday the upper flow will flatten out somewhat...allowing an
upper ridge to start to build in from the west and for regional
temperatures to moderate some. This will be aided by a weak system
approaching from the west and turning winds back to a more southerly
direction for Thursday and Friday...with highs expected to climb
back above 60 degrees for parts of southern and western Arkansas
those days. The warm up does not look to last long though as the
Thursday/Friday system will finally push south of the area late
Friday...allowing a reinforcing shot of cold air to arrive just
beyond the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 55 35 58 33 / 0 0 0 10
Camden Arkansas 56 32 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 53 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 55 33 58 34 / 10 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 55 33 59 34 / 10 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 55 33 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 55 32 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 55 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 10
Newport Arkansas 54 32 57 34 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 53 33 58 35 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 55 31 59 32 / 10 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 54 31 58 32 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 53 32 58 35 / 10 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...56

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