Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
905 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Overall forecast on track. Expect some patchy fog overnight with
milder temperatures. Thin high clouds will be seen while overall mostly
clear conditions are expected. No changes expected. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 651 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014/
Cut back on mention of fog for central and southern sites tonight.
Models seem to be notably drier in the low levels tonight than in
recent days. However a surge of Gulf moisture should push into
southern Arkansas from Texas after 08z-10z Tuesday morning. Suspect
there will be sct015-025 bases in the southern half of the state
around sunrise...which will transition to broken-overcast ceilings shortly
thereafter once the boundary layer warms and begins to overturn.
Have tempo groups for all central and southern sites to account
for this. Also included some mention of 5sm visibility with those MVFR
ceilings at kllq since low level moisture may be a little higher
there. VFR conditions should return by middle morning to all
terminals in the southern half of the state. Meanwhile VFR
conditions are expected through the period in the north. Surface low
pressure will move across southern Missouri tomorrow as well. Pressure
gradients should be high enough to solicit some gusts to 18-20kt
in the north...but expect only south winds 10-12kt elsewhere.
Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014/
Short term...tonight through Thursday night
Morning fog and low clouds dissipated by late morning...giving way to
sunny skies this afternoon. Incrsg west/SW winds allowed middle afternoon temperatures to
climb into the middle 60s to the lower 70s across the forecast area.
S/southwesterly wind will continue across Arkansas tonight and Tuesday ahead of a develop storm system
approaching from the plains states. Clouds will gradually increases later tonight from
the SW as well. This will keep temperatures from falling as low as this morning...
with readings from the middle 40s to middle 50s expected. Highs on Tuesday will be
mainly in the 70s.
A southern stream storm system remains forecast to pass S of Arkansas during the day on
Tuesday. The latest model data continues to indicate rain chances will stay to the southeast
of the area...so opted to remove any mention of precipitation over the area
For Tuesday night and early Wednesday...the aforementioned storm system in the
plains will track just to the north of Arkansas...with the associated cold front expected
to pass through the forecast area by Wednesday morning. Kept low chance probability of precipitation in for most of
the area with the frontal passage. Gusty northwesterly winds behind the system will usher
another shot of colder and drier air into the middle south. Temperatures will
begin to modify by Thursday as southerly winds return to the area.
Long term...Friday through Monday
Guidance is very inconsistent in the long term...as each run show
different solutions. Have decided to go mostly with a persistence
and wait and see approach.
A cold front will move into the area Friday...but moisture return
will be limited...with rain chances confined to the southern half of
the area. The main model disagreements come in for Monday...as
European shows a much stronger trough...and thus rainfall will be
farther west. For now...did not add any rain chances...and will wait
for better consistency.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 71 47 75 43 / 0 0 10 30
Camden Arkansas 72 52 77 50 / 0 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 74 49 76 38 / 0 0 10 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 72 51 77 47 / 0 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 72 49 75 48 / 0 10 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 72 52 77 52 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 72 50 76 45 / 0 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 72 47 76 39 / 0 0 10 30
Newport Arkansas 70 47 74 45 / 0 0 10 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 71 51 76 50 / 0 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 73 48 76 43 / 0 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 70 47 73 46 / 0 0 10 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 71 49 74 49 / 0 0 10 20