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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
102 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Discussion...

Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

High resolution models continue to show convection developing in
Missouri then diving southwest across the northwest half of
Arkansas through the early morning hours. However...regional radar
and satellite observations show nothing of the sort. As
such...have pulled any mention of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain from all sites except
khro and kbpk. Those appear the most likely to be affected by
anything developing before daybreak. Later today...expect there
will be some showers and thunderstorms across the state...but
suspect they will be more isolated...thus the reason for removing
them from tafs for the time being. Will watch radar/satellite
through the morning hours and amend if necessary before the 12z
issuance. Otherwise...have some patchy fog in at many sites this
morning. Do not expect any dense fog...and whatever forms will
dissipate quickly after sunrise.

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Short term...tonight through Friday night
the near term pattern will feature a ridge of high
pressure over the central and southern rockies and
central and Southern Plains. East of the ridge...a
trough will exist east of the Mississippi River.

The ridge will be far enough to the west to allow a cold
front to move into Arkansas from the north on Wednesday.
The front will have no problem pushing through areas
east of the state where troughing exists. It appears
the front may make it into Louisiana before stalling
on Thursday.

The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Precipitation will be possible north of
Little Rock tonight...and in areas farther south as the
front passes by. Any severe weather will be isolated.
While locally heavy downpours are expected...widespread
heavy rain is not in the forecast.

It will cool off briefly behind the front on Thursday.
The front will move back to the north on Friday...with
summerlike conditions returning.

Temperatures will be close to normal Wednesday and
Friday...and below normal Thursday.

Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
period will initiate with a large upper trough digging into the
Great Lakes region with a broadening ridge of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest. Arkansas will remain sandwiched between the
two...creating northwest flow and allowing several pieces of
shortwave energy to pass through the region with at least a chance
of isolated convection daily. On Sunday a frontal boundary will pass
through and give US the best chance of precipitation. Rain cooled air will
drop temperatures back down below seasonal normals Mon/tues...with highs
back in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 91 67 85 66 / 40 30 10 10
Camden Arkansas 93 72 93 70 / 20 30 30 10
Harrison Arkansas 90 66 86 67 / 40 20 10 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 92 72 91 71 / 30 40 20 10
Little Rock Arkansas 92 72 89 70 / 30 40 20 10
Monticello Arkansas 92 71 93 70 / 20 30 30 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 92 68 91 69 / 30 30 20 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 92 67 86 65 / 50 20 10 10
Newport Arkansas 91 67 85 66 / 40 30 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 92 71 89 70 / 20 40 30 10
Russellville Arkansas 93 71 91 69 / 40 30 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 91 70 85 67 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 91 71 86 69 / 30 40 20 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...64

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