Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
241 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Short term...tonight through Monday night 
for a late May Day in Arkansas...you just can/T beat today. Little 
in the way of cloud cover...and mainly northeast/easterly flow has 
kept temperatures in the 70s in much of the state. 


Tonight will be cool...with lows in the 50s in much of the area. 
Slow warming will commence in the coming days...as surface high 
pressure shifts to the east...and the remnants of a frontal 
boundary to the south of the region return north. At the same time... 
several weak waves will move through in the mean flow on Saturday 
and Sunday...bringing mainly small chances of showers and 
thunderstorms. 


By Monday...dry conditions will return as upper ridging sets up 
over the region. Surface winds will be elevated...due to the 
gradient between the surface high centered over the southeast 
Continental U.S. And developing low pressure in the plains. Highs will be 
well into the 80s areawide. 
&& 


Long term...Tuesday through Friday 
an upper ridge will be pushing east of Arkansas on Tuesday as an 
upper trough dives along the West Coast. In between 
systems...southwest flow aloft will be over Arkansas Wednesday and 
Thursday. An upper low develops over the northern plains Thursday 
and slides into Canada Friday. 


Surface high pressure will be over the area through much of the 
period. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry but chances of showers and 
thunderstorms will increase Thursday through Friday as a cold front 
slowly moves toward the state from the west...and moisture and 
instability increases. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are 
expected through the long term period. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 50 78 59 82 / 0 10 10 30 
Camden Arkansas 57 84 63 85 / 10 10 20 20 
Harrison Arkansas 51 79 60 81 / 0 20 20 40 
Hot Springs Arkansas 56 83 63 84 / 0 10 20 20 
Little Rock Arkansas 53 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 20 
Monticello Arkansas 55 83 62 85 / 0 10 10 20 
Mount Ida Arkansas 55 81 62 82 / 10 20 20 20 
Mountain Home Arkansas 50 79 60 82 / 0 10 20 40 
Newport Arkansas 51 78 60 83 / 0 10 10 30 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 54 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 20 
Russellville Arkansas 54 81 62 83 / 0 20 20 30 
Searcy Arkansas 51 79 58 83 / 0 10 10 20 
Stuttgart Arkansas 53 80 63 84 / 0 10 10 20 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...57 / long term...51