Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1147 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
the approaching cold front is located in southeast Kansas and
central Oklahoma. An area of rain is in central Oklahoma and
westward. Expect the rain chances to increase north and west this
evening with light showers. Heavier showers are expected by Friday
morning. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected through early
evening...then conditions will deteriorate and become IFR and
Previous discussion... /issued 1048 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
Just issued a late morning update to account mainly delayed rain
chances through the remainder of the day. Left a slight chance of
rain showers in for the western half of the forecast area through
the rest of this morning as there are still some light returns on
radar. Most places will see nothing however.
For this afternoon and the first half of tonight...cut back on
rain chances significantly. The latest guidance indicates that
very little...if any...rainfall will make it into western Arkansas
until this evening...which is about a 6hr slowing of the arrival
of heavy rains. For the latter parts of the overnight hours and
tomorrow...did not make any notable changes at this time. The
morning model runs continue to line up fairly well with what the
current forecast is showing. Will leave the Flash Flood Watch
alone as well. Despite a slightly slower arrival of heavy
rain...this event has been well advertised and still expect there
to be heavy and potentially flash flood inducing heavy rains so
there is no need to adjust the start time by only a few hours at
Previous discussion... /issued 546 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
moisture continuing to increase across the region will lead to
MVFR conditions and drizzle this morning. Expecting a brief
lifting of the ceilings later this morning into this
afternoon...before conditions deteriorate overnight. Rainfall
will hold off until after 27/00z across the west...and not reach
central and eastern sites until after this taf cycle. &&
Previous discussion... /issued 407 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
Short term...today through Sunday night
Models continue to show a prolonged and likely significant rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting through the Holiday weekend.
Other than slowing down the onset of the significant precipitation a
bit based on the new models...no significant changes will be forth
coming this morning.
Latest water vapor imagery reveals a well defined upper low spinning
over the Great Basin. Models consistent keeping this system spinning
basically in place through the period as Rex block pattern develops
over the western Continental U.S.. upper ridging setting up over the southeast
United States provides a pronounced southwest flow aloft.
On the surface...wavy cold front extends from the Great Lakes into
western Kansas. High pressure off the eastern Seaboard will keep the
Gulf open for business through the period with copious amounts of
moisture being pulled into the state. Moisture surge evident by dew
points which have been slowly on the rise and currently sitting in
the 50s across the state. Precipitable water values surge from a little over an
inch morning afternoon to between 1.75 and almost two inches by
The aforementioned surface front in the plains will move into the
region. However...as it gets further southeast...it will hit nearly
parallel upper flow...and this will act to slow down or even stall
out the boundary for a time. Several waves will interact with the
front and produce several rounds of potentially heavy precipitation.
Some patchy drizzle or a quick shower will be possible this morning
with rain chances increasing somewhat this afternoon. Probability of precipitation will
increase significantly tonight.
Widespread soaking rain will continue through Saturday into Saturday
night as the front crawls into southeast Arkansas by Sunday morning.
Rainfall intensity and amounts and taper down on Sunday but high
probability of precipitation are still warranted. Will continue the Flash Flood Watch in its
current form...leaving the southeast part of the state out for now.
Elevated convection remains possible but will not hit this aspect of
the storm system overly hard.
Storm total amounts could exceed half a foot over the northwest half
of the state with lesser amounts to the southeast. Regardless of the
exact amounts...widespread flash flooding is very possible with the
ground still wet in many areas and vegetation becoming more dormant.
Temperatures will average above normal in advance of the boundary
and close to normal after its passage. Will not stray too far from
guidance this morning.
Long term...Monday through Wednesday
Rain will continue into Monday...as upper low slowly moves east.
There is still disagreement on track of upper low...and thus when
rain chances will end. Have continued the trend of small rain
chances on Monday...before dry conditions return for Tuesday and
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal for
highs...with lows across the north falling below freezing.
With the expected rainfall over the next few days...it is noteworthy
that...if the forecasted amounts come to fruition... there will be
many locations that will see top 10 wettest novembers. At a few
locations...we could see the wettest November on record.
Again...that is if the current forecast holds up. For
example...current rainfall at Harrison in Boone County is at 4.89.
If six inches of rainfall happens...the monthly total will be at
10... will be their wettest November on record.
To give some perspective...listed below are a few locations with
November 2015 rainfall totals...forecast rainfall amounts... and the
10th wettest November at each location.
Station Nov 2015 so far forecast 10th wettest Nov
Booneville 5.76 7 inches 8.33 in 1985
Little Rock 5.25 5 inches 9.03 in 1973
Mount Ida 4.32 6-7 inches 9.29 in 2003
Russellville 6.52 6-7 inches 7.81 in 1902
Subiaco 6.32 7 inches 8.28 in 2006
Waldron 6.87 7 inches+ 8.29 in 1988
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 65 59 63 47 / 20 60 90 90
Camden Arkansas 70 63 71 59 / 10 30 50 60
Harrison Arkansas 64 55 55 39 / 30 100 100 100
Hot Springs Arkansas 67 63 68 53 / 20 60 80 80
Little Rock Arkansas 69 61 68 54 / 10 50 80 80
Monticello Arkansas 72 60 71 60 / 10 20 40 40
Mount Ida Arkansas 67 64 66 51 / 20 80 90 90
Mountain Home Arkansas 65 58 59 42 / 20 90 100 100
Newport Arkansas 66 59 63 50 / 10 50 90 90
Pine Bluff Arkansas 70 60 70 58 / 10 30 50 60
Russellville Arkansas 67 62 64 48 / 20 90 100 90
Searcy Arkansas 66 58 65 51 / 10 50 80 90
Stuttgart Arkansas 69 60 69 56 / 10 30 60 70
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through late
Saturday night for Baxter-Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-