Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1159 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.
Skies are rapidly clearing late this morning and will continue to
do so through the afternoon hours. Have high clouds clearing out
accordingly through that time as an upper disturbance and
associated surface cold front move through the area.
However...will maintain a VFR deck between 4-6k feet above ground level at khro
and kbpk as visible Sat imagery shows an expanding stratocu deck
streaming south through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Will keep an
eye on this to see if any ctrl or southern sites need to be amended to
include these ceilings...but for now will go with sky clear through the
afternoon and evening. Winds should also become gusty out of the
west at most sites over the next couple of hours and hold there
through early evening for most all sites. Otherwise the only other
concern is that models show MVFR ceilings spreading south into northern
sites overnight. This seems reasonable looking at observation in northern
Missouri so have included these at khro and kbpk beginning at 06z
Previous discussion... /issued 945 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
Clouds are overcast this morning with the shortwave as it moves
through the region. Only very spotty light rain has been seen over
northern Arkansas so far...and this trend will continue today. Any rain
will gradually move southeast today and exit this afternoon. Forecast will
only have a slight chance of light rain in the NE. Temperatures have held
around or above freezing this morning over the north...and will
at least warm to the 40s today. The surface low was over southern
Iowa with a cold front southeast to eastern Kansas and OK this morning. The
clouds will gradually move east today...while the cold front sags
through the state. South winds at 5 to 15 miles per hour ahead of the front
will shift to the SW then west then northwest behind the front...as cold air
advection settles in over Arkansas. Highs today have been trimmed back a
bit in the overcast cloud areas. Late morning update will fine tune
cloud cover and afternoon highs. Temperatures may have to come down
a few more degrees if clouds hold more. Some thinning and sunshine
is seen over eastern Kansas...western MO and northeast OK...and some
sunshine should make it to Arkansas...albeit later in the afternoon. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
Short term...today through Saturday night
Northwesterly flow aloft will bring a strong shortwave southeastward into the region today.
Middle and high level clouds will continue to increases in advance of this system.
Even though conds will remain quite dry in the low levels...still cannot
rule out some patchy light rain over north-central and northestern Arkansas later this morning
and into the afternoon hours. Continued to follow the trends of the high res
model regarding timing of rain chances.
High pressure will build into the natural state for the Thanksgiving Holiday
with a quick shot of colder air. The high will shift quickly eastward...
allowing southerly winds to return to the forecast area by Friday. The resulting warming
trend will extend into the weekend...along with the northward return to Gulf
moisture. Forecast high temperatures by Sat will be about 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year.
Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
Cold front will move into the region Sunday...before stalling and/or
washing out Monday. There is some disagreement about how far south
the boundary will get...and have kept the previous trend of small
rain chances Sunday into Monday...the highest chances in the
Ahead of the boundary Sunday...temperatures will warm considerably
across southern Arkansas...with readings approaching the middle 70s.
Cooler air will move in Monday...with highs Monday in the middle 40s
across the north. However...temperatures will rebound some on Tuesday...as
southwest flow develops ahead of the next system.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 49 29 45 30 / 20 10 0 0
Camden Arkansas 62 34 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 48 26 45 32 / 20 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 55 31 52 33 / 10 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 52 32 49 32 / 10 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 61 35 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 55 30 52 32 / 10 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 47 27 43 30 / 30 10 0 0
Newport Arkansas 50 30 45 30 / 20 10 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 58 33 49 32 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 51 28 49 30 / 10 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 51 29 46 29 / 10 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 55 31 47 31 / 10 0 0 0