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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
544 am CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Aviation...
high pressure will continue to build over the area through the
next 24 hours. Clouds will be slow to dissipate during the morning
hours. Other than the early morning hours with some scattered
arrea of MVFR...expect VFR conditions. Winds will be light east to
southesst.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015/

Short term...today through Saturday night

No significant changes were made to the short term forecast as
models remain in decent agreement on the overall pattern. A deep
trough will dig south along the western Seaboard this
evening...allowing upper ridging to develop over the plains over
the next couple of days. The ridge will initiate a warming trend
through the period but it will not be extremely strong and as such
temperatures will only rise to slightly above normal levels
through the first part of the weekend. However with all the recent
rainfall we have seen...middle to upper 80s will be plenty hot and muggy.

On the precipitation front mostly dry conditions are expected
through the period. An impulse in Nebraska and associated
convection will move south today and could make it into northwest
and western Arkansas this evening. Left the forecast dry for this
evening and tonight as guidance varies on whether this will make
it into Arkansas. Similarly an impulse will top the ridge during
the early morning hours on Friday then dive south through the middle
Mississippi River valley during the day. This will be a bit
stronger and will push a front south into the northeast part of
the state by Sat afternoon. With the approaching front and small
disturbances in the northwest upper flow over southern Missouri...some
scattered showers and thunderstorms could creep into the northern
counties Friday and Saturday. Kept slight chances in the to
account for this.

Long term...Sunday through Tuesday

Medium range models all agree the pattern will be dominated by
upper level ridging located in the Central Plains. However the
center of the anti cyclone does slip off to the west with time as
a series of upper level disturbances moves through the prevailing
northwest flow aloft. European model (ecmwf) remains the most consistent model this
morning and the solution this morning will be trended in its
direction.

Forecast remains dry on Sunday with minimal chances across the
northeast Monday as an upper disturbances brushes that part of the
state. Better chances of precipitation come in for Tuesday as a
stronger disturbances arrives.

Temperatures will run above normal through the period with upper
high sitting in the vicinity. Temperatures will be a touch cooler
Tuesday with better rain chances in the forecast.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 79 61 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 85 65 87 67 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 80 63 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 83 65 86 66 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 82 65 86 68 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 83 65 86 65 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 80 62 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 79 63 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 81 65 85 67 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 83 65 86 66 / 10 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 80 63 85 66 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 80 65 84 68 / 10 10 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...57

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