Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1036 am CST sun Dec 21 2014


Cloudy skies and foggy conditions have been seen across western
Arkansas this morning...with these foggy conditions dissipating by
late morning. Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies will be seen across
portions of central and southeast Arkansas today. Forecast is in
great shape and no major changes were needed.


Previous discussion... /issued 526 am CST sun Dec 21 2014/

marginal VFR conditions will gradually improve by middle day. Winds
will be light and variable. Stratocu and patchy fog will develop
again tonight...restricting conditions mostly after 06z. Tafs
already out.

Previous discussion... /issued 207 am CST sun Dec 21 2014/

Short through Wednesday

Some breaks in the cloud cover have finally been seen for portions
of the County Warning Area as of this past Sat afternoon...and have persisted into
the overnight hours this morning. However...the western and northwestern parts of
the County Warning Area are still seeing persistent cloud cover. Not expecting a
whole lot of change through this sun regarding overall cloud cover
as locations across northwestern portions of the County Warning Area may remain generally
cloudy. Further south and east...should see some sunshine through
the day...though will likely start to see increasing clouds this
afternoon and especially this evening.

Flow aloft will be generally from the SW over the region ... will
begin to see some weak disturbances aloft lift over the state by
this evening into Monday. This will bring a return to the widespread
cloud well as enough lift to see some dz or sprinkles
overnight tonight. A trough to the west and northwest of the state will
begin deepening on Monday...with srly flow increasing across the region
as surface low pressure develops across Texas and starts lifting towards
Arkansas. As a result...start increasing probability of precipitation on Monday and especially Monday
night as the upper trough continues to deepen...and surface low lifts NE
across southeastern sections of the state. A cold front associated with this
surface low will then drop southeast across the state on Tuesday...with much colder
air moving into Arkansas.

Tuesday high temperatures will likely be early in the day as the front will be
moving through the state by midday. As a result...will see temperatures
dropping for most locations throughout the day on Tuesday...with the
only exception probably being southeastern sections of the state where the
front will be last to move through. Initially...temperatures will be in the
50s late Monday night into Tuesday...but will likely see temperatures drop into
the 30s by Tuesday evening across northwestern sections of the state. At the
same time...the upper low to the west of Arkansas will continue to
deepen...and potentially become closed off from the main upper flow.
This setup will only enhance the cooling trend for Tuesday night into well as providing some additional energy for another wave
of precipitation.

Depending on the strength of the cold air intrusion Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning...and the exact track of the upper level low...there
looks to be some increasing potential for at least some brief
snowfall across portions of the County Warning Area. As one would expect...there
remains some uncertainty regarding the extent of the cold air...and
what moisture will well as the exact track of this upper
low as it moves across the region. Given the recent trend to higher
moisture levels...stronger upper level forcing...and colder
temperatures...have started to introduce a bit higher chance for some
wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. While the overall temperature profile
will support generally all snow...the forecast soundings keep a
significant warm layer near the surface. This would tend to suggest a
cold rain...mixing with some very wet snow. As a result...only
mention light accumulations of less than an inch for storm total.
Given the uncertainties mentioned above however...these amounts will
likely change over the next few days.

New data over the next 24 to 36 hours will definitely diminish some of
the uncertainties mentioned above...especially since the storm
system that will eventually move across the region will be better
sampled by observed data as it moves onshore over the Pacific
northwest. As always...refer to the latest forecasts and data in the
next few days as changes in the storm location and strength could
result in some potential impacts for the Christmas evening travel.

Long term...Wednesday night through Saturday

High pressure will move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. Winds will come back around to the southwest...with
readings warming into the 50s to near 60 on Christmas day. The high
will head east by Friday...with rain coming back into the forecast
as a front moves through Arkansas. The front should clear the area
by early Saturday...with colder and drier air following.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 50 39 54 47 / 10 10 30 50
Camden Arkansas 58 43 61 54 / 10 10 20 50
Harrison Arkansas 48 38 53 41 / 10 10 30 50
Hot Springs Arkansas 54 42 57 48 / 10 10 20 50
Little Rock Arkansas 54 41 57 51 / 10 10 20 50
Monticello Arkansas 56 44 61 57 / 10 10 20 50
Mount Ida Arkansas 53 43 56 46 / 10 10 20 50
Mountain Home Arkansas 49 39 54 43 / 10 10 30 50
Newport Arkansas 51 39 55 49 / 10 10 20 50
Pine Bluff Arkansas 55 41 59 54 / 10 10 20 50
Russellville Arkansas 53 41 56 46 / 10 10 30 50
Searcy Arkansas 51 38 55 49 / 10 10 20 50
Stuttgart Arkansas 54 40 58 52 / 10 10 20 50

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations