Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
332 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015
Short term...today through Wednesday night
Another quiet night/early morning noted across Arkansas as a weak ridge of surface
high pressure was situated over the region. With light winds and mostly clear
skies...early morning temperatures ranged from the middle 60s to the middle 70s.
The aforementioned surface high will linger over the forecast area through Monday...with
daytime highs in the 90s. Will see a gradual increases in low level moisture
heading into Monday as the high shifts far enough to the east to allow
S/southwesterly winds to return to most locations. By Tuesday...cannot rule out
some afternoon isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over the area.
By Tuesday night and Wednesday...an upper level impulse is forecast to pass eastward across northern
Arkansas/southern MO. This feature will interact with incrsd moisture to produce
scattered convection. Highest probability of precipitation were mentioned over northern parts of the
forecast area...closer to the track of the shortwave. Rain chances will taper off later
Wednesday and Wednesday night from the west as the upper energy shifts east of the region.
For temperature trends...continued to bump high temperatures up a degree or two over
the next few days. Incrsd low level relative humidity and cloud cover by Tuesday and Wednesday
will hold highs down just a bit. Forecast heat indices are expected to remain
blw advisory criteria through the period.
Long term...Thursday through Saturday
Upper high pressure will be centered over the southwest U.S. To
begin the long term period. Northwest flow will be over Arkansas.
This ridge will slowly move east through the period and may enter
western Arkansas by late Saturday.
Several short waves are expected to move through the northwest flow
and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday
and Friday. In addition...a warm front will move north through the
state Thursday. The best chances will generally be in the north and
central sections. Saturday looks to be dry at this point. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s.
Short term...44 / long term...51