Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
221 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Discussion...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are chances of convection...be
it low through the week and into the weekend. The chance of any
strong to severe storms also being low to isolated at best due to
lack of any significant systems. Temperatures gradually warming to
the 90s...with some heat index values reaching the upper 90s in
spots.
This afternoon the frontal boundary has drifted to near the Arkansas
and la state line...with pooling of 70 dew point temperatures along and
south. NE surface flow has lowered dew point temperatures into the middle
60s over NE Arkansas...while still upper 60s central areas. Clouds have
thinned over northern Arkansas bringing mostly sunny conditions...while
central to south...areas of stratus are holding on and some upper
clouds over NE Texas are moving in over the area. The isolated to
scattered convection has held to far southern Arkansas and into la.
Current trends have the convection mainly moving southeast and affecting north
la and far S Arkansas. An isolated shower or storm may be possible over
central Arkansas...but overall chances remain quite low this evening.
&&
Short term...tonight through Friday night
Will hold a slight chance of convection over far southern areas
this evening due to weakening boundary...some upper lift...and
current trends. Have added patchy fog in overnight forecast due to
low level moisture and thinning clouds. Then Wednesday through
Friday a warm up is expected as upper ridging gradually sets up
over the southeast plains. Southeast to S surface flow will keep moisture levels
up through the period. On Thursday to Friday...models indicate an
upper short wave to move across the area...and have timed it with
a slight chance of convection Thursday more in the west...while
Friday more in the east. Overall chances are slight at this
time...and rain amounts and coverage are also expected to be low.
Also the threat of any strong to severe storms will be quite low
and isolated if they form. As the upper ridge settles in over the
Southern Plains and moisture levels remain up...temperatures will warm
into the 90s through the period...as heat index values also
increase to the middle and upper 90s with a few near 100 degree
readings possible in spots.
&&
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure will continue over the area through the long term.
While isolated diurnal convection can not be ruled out...will
leave dry conditions in the grids. Temperatures will be slightly
above normal for highs...with readings in the upper 80s to the middle
90s.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 67 88 68 90 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 64 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 67 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 69 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 66 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
Newport Arkansas 68 89 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 69 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 67 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 68 90 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 69 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...59 / long term...58
