Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
904 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015
thunderstorms in far southwest Arkansas dissipated this evening.
Rain chances will increase overnight from southwest to northeast
as an upper low pressure system approaches from Texas. Made some
minor adjustments to the forecast...increasing cloud cover over
the west and south and decreasing probability of precipitation in the northeast. Adjusted
temperatures based on current observations and trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 638 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015/
Currently seeing low clouds retreating across portions of the
southern half of the state with MVFR conditions remaining across
northern Arkansas. Continue to think showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage across southern Arkansas...while a
separate complex of thunderstorms will spread east into western
Arkansas. These storms will likely not be in the vicinity of kllq until
9z and khot until 07z. With a tight pressure gradient in place
winds will remain elevated through the evening and into Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 236 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015/
Short term...tonight through Wednesday night
Upper trough over The Four Corners region will become a closed
low late tonight and into Monday morning over the Texas Panhandle.
This feature will then slowly drift east through the remainder of
the period and will be the main player for weather across Arkansas
during that time as well.
At 15z this morning a cold front was located along extreme
southern Arkansas and westward along roughly the Texas/OK border.
Broad ascent in the warm sector south of this
boundary...responsible for ongoing severe grade convection across
central Texas...will spread into southwest Arkansas later this
evening. Am not expecting there to be a ton of rainfall but high
resolution models suggest that some convection will spread east
along the aforementioned boundary and into southwest Arkansas
this evening so have kept some slight chance to chance probability of precipitation in
there before midnight to account for this. Better rain chances
will be seen after midnight and into Monday as the upper low takes
shape and begins to shift east towards Arkansas. Tonight through
much of Monday the best rain chances will be in western
Arkansas...but Monday night showers and thunderstorms appear
likely across most of the forecast area. Expect precipitation to
largely be east of the forecast area by Wednesday
morning...however would not be surprised to see cloudy skies and
even some isolated to scattered showers linger through much of the
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning period as another disturbance dives
south towards Arkansas from the Midwest on the backside of the
departing upper low.
Temperatures during the short term will run quite a ways below
normal. Monday will see temperatures struggle to get out of the
middle 60s in the warmest places in southeast Arkansas...and will
stay in the low 60s in the north and western parts of the state.
On Tuesday low 60s will be the normal across the forecast
area...some 12-15 degrees below normal for most locations. A
slight warm up will be seen on Wednesday but even then only upper
60s are forecast. Overnight temperatures will also run below
normal...though not by the same magnitude. Readings in the middle 40s
to low 50s are expected.
Long term...Thursday through Sunday
Upper flow looks to be progressive in the medium range but all
indications are a dry forecast is still in the offering for the
forecast area. Period initiates with a departing positively tilted
upper tough over the region and upper ridging extending from the
Desert Southwest to the Canadian prairie provenances.
Upper ridge translates east as trough moves out early in the period.
While a brief sprinkle can not totally be excluded early over the
southeast...only expecting some clouds from this feature.
Upper ridge will build over the region but in a slightly weaker state
than it will be at the onset. Still...it will keep the area dry
through the period and keep all upper waves to the north of the
state. Temperatures will be seasonable or just a touch above it
through the period with the mav/mex numbers generally accepted.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 49 63 49 62 / 10 10 40 50
Camden Arkansas 57 66 51 60 / 30 40 70 60
Harrison Arkansas 48 61 47 60 / 20 20 40 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 53 63 50 60 / 30 40 70 60
Little Rock Arkansas 53 64 51 61 / 20 20 70 60
Monticello Arkansas 56 67 52 60 / 20 30 70 60
Mount Ida Arkansas 53 61 49 60 / 40 50 70 60
Mountain Home Arkansas 48 63 48 61 / 10 10 30 30
Newport Arkansas 49 64 50 62 / 10 10 40 50
Pine Bluff Arkansas 54 65 52 60 / 20 20 70 60
Russellville Arkansas 52 64 49 61 / 30 30 70 50
Searcy Arkansas 51 64 50 61 / 10 20 50 60
Stuttgart Arkansas 53 65 51 61 / 20 20 60 60