Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1010 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Overall forecast on track. Middle and high clouds are streaming in over
Arkansas from the south due to convection over the Texas and la Gulf Coast.
These clouds may be think enough to lower temperatures a degree in those
areas with the thickest cloud cover. Highs today will still make the
90s in most locations. Yesterday did see scattered convection in the
afternoon to early evening over Arkansas...and with model trends again
showing scattered convection potential...with have slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Otherwise...the upper
trough over the region is expected to weaken through the week and
lower the overall chance of rain. Will only fine tune some elements
with late morning update. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 645 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
Patchy fog is expected through 14z/900 am CDT this morning.
Otherwise...conditions will be mainly VFR through tonight with a lot
of high clouds/some middle clouds over central/southern Arkansas.
Scattered cumulus will form today at 4000 to 5000 feet. Any showers
or thunderstorms will be isolated. Winds will be south/southeast at
5 to 10 miles per hour today...and south/southeast at 3 to 6 miles per hour tonight. (46)
Short term...today through Friday night
After showers and thunderstorms brought rain to locations across the
state Monday afternoon...skies continued to clear through the
evening hours. Through the early morning hours...showers and
thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast began to spread some high clouds
into the southern half of the state.
Today...a shear axis will remain in place across the state as upper
level energy continues to rotate north towards the state. Do believe
this will bring greatest precipitation chances to the Gulf Coast
which will somewhat limit moisture transport into Arkansas. Model
soundings are showing about a quarter of an inch less precipitable
water then soundings showed Monday afternoon. Because of this...do
think afternoon shower and thunderstorm development will be somewhat
less in coverage than what was seen on Monday...but not small enough
to warrant removing probability of precipitation from the forecast.
Precipitation chances will remain in the forecast Wednesday and
Thursday...generally across the southern portion of the state as the
upper level low continues to slide to the south and east of the
state. With precipitation chances generally across the south...did
go slightly below mav guidance across that portion of the state.
Highly amplified upper level ridge will take control of our weather
on Friday with hot and dry weather in the forecast. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the short term with temperatures
running three to five degrees above normal.
Long term...Saturday through Monday
Much of the period will feature a ridge of high pressure over the
south central and southeast United States. Under the ridge...it will
be mostly dry with at/above normal temperatures. Toward the end of
the period...there are signs the ridge may edge to the west and
buckle a bit as a storm system aloft forms over the southeast
states. At the same time...a cold front will slowly approach from
the plains. If this scenario pans out...it will be somewhat cooler
with better chances for rain just beyond the long term window.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 90 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
Camden Arkansas 93 70 94 72 / 20 20 20 10
Harrison Arkansas 90 67 90 67 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 93 71 93 72 / 20 20 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 94 72 94 73 / 20 20 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 94 71 94 71 / 20 20 20 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 91 67 92 69 / 20 20 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 90 67 92 68 / 20 20 10 10
Newport Arkansas 90 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 93 71 95 71 / 20 20 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 93 70 93 70 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 92 69 94 69 / 20 20 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 92 72 93 71 / 20 20 10 10
Short term...65 / long term...46