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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
221 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Short term...tonight through Sunday night
although it/S been said many times...and many ways...upper level
ridging...and south/southwest winds will keep warm and humid
conditions over the region through the duration of the short term.
Though there could be an isolated stray shower/storm here or there...
nothing widespread is expected due to the lack of a forcing
mechanism.

Look for above average temperatures to continue...with maybe a
little relief in the latter part of the long term periods /well...okay...
temperatures closer to where they are expected to be this time of year/.

Saturday and Sunday will be the warmest days of the short term...with
temperatures mostly in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Heat index
values could come close to or briefly exceed 105...and heat advisories
may be necessary...if not by Sunday than likely Monday...as more oppressive
conditions are expected to start the work week.
&&

Long term...Monday through Thursday
the early part of the long term period will remain quite warm thanks
to a strong upper ridge still anchored across the region. Highs will
likely be approaching 100 degrees for many places on Monday.
Depending on how well dewpoints mix out the heat index could climb
above 105 for several hours Monday afternoon.

Models are in better agreement today with the evolution of the upper
pattern in the long term. It now appears that the upper ridge will
indeed be knocked down a bit come midweek as a trough deepens across
The Rockies and begins to shift east. How much relief from the heat
that will lead to by Wednesday or Thursday remains to be seen as
models are usually too quick with pattern changes that far
out...especially in the Summer. That said...as the ridge weakens and
begins to shift east rain chances will return for Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons in the form of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures should be down several degrees versus Monday...with middle 90s
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

As stated the big question is how far east/south the trough from The
Rockies will make it by Wednesday evening into Thursday. Guidance
currently is in agreement with a front moving into Arkansas Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning...with widespread rain chances during
that time and a cooler air mass from the north moving in behind it.
Given the likelihood that this is too quick...settled with highs in
the low 90s on Thursday and carried over slight rain chances from Wednesday
afternoon through the day Thursday. Will wait for another day or two of
consistently cooler/wetter model solutions for middle to late next week
before making significant changes to the forecast.

Nevertheless...perhaps this heat will not be around for too terribly
long after all.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 72 98 73 99 / 10 10 0 10
Camden Arkansas 73 96 71 98 / 10 10 0 10
Harrison Arkansas 71 96 70 97 / 10 10 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 74 96 73 96 / 10 10 0 10
Little Rock Arkansas 74 96 74 98 / 10 10 0 10
Monticello Arkansas 74 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 73 95 69 96 / 10 10 0 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 72 98 70 99 / 10 10 0 10
Newport Arkansas 73 97 74 98 / 10 10 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 73 96 72 97 / 10 10 0 10
Russellville Arkansas 71 96 70 99 / 10 10 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 72 96 71 98 / 10 10 0 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...57 / long term...64

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