Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
543 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
winter precipitation will move into the northern tafs around 15z...central
tafs around 21z...and southern tafs after 05/00z. After -ra this
morning...there will be a brief period of freezing rain before changing to
pl...and then snow. LIFR/IFR conditions will predominate...with some
improvement after 05/06z across the north. North winds will be
gusty...especially across the east this afternoon and overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 540 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
Short term...today through Thursday
colder air is coming...but just a little slower in the latest data.
Given this...trended rain to a wintry mix a bit later in most
Rain will change to freezing rain/sleet in the Ozarks this
morning...with a transition to snow early this afternoon. It will
rain in central sections of Arkansas through the early afternoon
hours before temperatures finally fall below freezing. Subfreezing
temperatures will not arrive in the south until this evening.
By the time we get into the late night hours and early
Thursday...much of what falls across the north will be snow.
Across the central counties...there will be a lot of sleet with
some snow to finish the event. In the south...it will be freezing
rain and sleet...and a little snow as precipitation winds down.
Accumulations of snow/sleet will be highest in the
northeast...where six inches plus is possible. Four to six inches
will be common in the north...with two to four inches central and
a half inch up to two inches in the south.
All of this is possible because there is a lot of moisture behind
the front that pushed through the region on Wednesday. Given a
split flow aloft...the polar jet is driving the front/cold air...
and the subtropical jet is providing the moisture. When both jets
are working in tandem...that often results in winter storms like
Besides the wintry mix...winds will pick up from the
north/northeast this afternoon and tonight. Windy conditions are
expected mainly across the southeast half of the state. Given
heavy accumulation of snow/ice...gusty conditions may cause some
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect today/tonight for all of the
County Warning Area. A lake Wind Advisory is posted this afternoon
and tonight in central/eastern Arkansas...with the strongest
winds in the Delta Region.
Roads will become hazardous...especially given well below
freezing temperatures tonight.
Other than some leftover light snow Thursday morning...clouds will
decrease but temperatures will be way below normal.
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday
high pressure will be settling over the state Thursday night...with
the coldest temperatures across the east. Highs will warm on
Friday...but will be inhibited by snow cover...especially across the
northeast. As the high shifts to the southeast...southwest winds
will bring warmer readings for Saturday...with readings climbing
above freezing in the east.
Guidance continues to show Gulf moisture moving north as a coastal
low moves east. Have kept forecast dry...as models show this feature
staying south of the state. Temperatures will warm into the
50s...and while it is still below normal...it is better than the
sleet/snow in the short term.
lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Thursday for
Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 am CST Thursday for
Winter Storm Warning until 6 am CST Thursday for Baxter-Boone-
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 am CST Thursday