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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1141 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

Aviation...
mainly VFR conditions expected through the period for most
sites...with the exception being the northern sites where some MVFR ceilings
are possible overnight. Northwest winds will become light and variable by
midday Thursday as surface high pressure moves over the state.
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/

Discussion...

The upper shortwave continues to move east with much of the light
showers moving out of the state. Clouds were thinning behind the
short wave...and behind the cold front as is pushes through Arkansas.
Some cold air Strata cumulus was forming closer to the surface low
pressure system over northern MO. Also over MO some precipitation was
noted with the surface low pressure. Temperatures were held down in the
40s before the clouds thinned and some sunshine allowed temperatures to
reach the 50s north and central...while the lower 60s in the
south. This afternoon the cold front was just to the west to klit
and will continue to gradually move east through the state. South
winds at 5 to 15 miles per hour ahead of the front will shift to the SW then
west then northwest behind the front...as cold air advection settles in over
Arkansas.

Short term...tonight through Friday night

This afternoon to evening...some clouds will be seen especially
over northern and central Arkansas...while the front moves through the
state...and the upper trough also moves east. Winds will be south
ahead of the front...then become more elevated behind the front.
Overnight...the winds will gradually lower and clouds thin over
northern areas. The upper trough continues to move east through
the end of the week...as the upper high pressure ridge over The
Rockies builds a bit more east. Northwest upper flow holds into the
region...but little short wave energy is seen to affect the
weather for Arkansas. Some high clouds are expected...as temperatures
warm to normal...then above normal values heading into the
weekend.

Long term...Saturday through Wednesday

Deep south to southwesterly flow over the weekend will help warm
things up quite a bit over Arkansas...with highs on Saturday pushing
70 for much of the southern half of the state...and climbing into
the low to possibly middle 70s on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon and
evening a cold front will move into the region...before stalling
and/or washing out Monday. There is some disagreement about how far
south the boundary will get...so have made little in the way of
changes for the long term forecast as a result. Will keep 20-30
percent rain chances Sunday into Monday...with the highest chances
in the northeast and eastern parts of the forecast area.

Cooler air will move in behind the front on Monday...knocking highs
down into the middle 40s across the north but only to the low 60s in
the far south. Temperatures will rebound some on Tuesday...as southwest
flow develops ahead of the next system.
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...62

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