Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
550 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below...
Warm front has lifted north of most terminals this morning...with
increased cloud cover seen. However...most sites have remained VFR
this morning...with just some patchy fog so far. Do think some
sites could drop briefly to MVFR levels with some patchy fog...dz
or low ceilings. Later today...there will be less opportunity for MVFR
or lower conditions outside of any convective activity...which
will be possible at some sites this afternoon and evening. Only
have vc and prob30 groups as timing and location of convective
activity is a bit uncertain at this time. Do think some isolated
to scattered activity could continue through the overnight
hours...and some MVFR conditions could be seen at the northern terminals
with some patchy fog.
Previous discussion... /issued 258 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015/
Short term...today through Friday night
All short term models continue to advertise the unsettled pattern
continuing pretty much unabated as a series of weak upper level
disturbances move through the prevailing flow. While all short
term models agree in the synoptic scale...both the placement and
timing of the individual waves varies from model to model. The
best course of action seems to be a blend of forecast solution
with a general broad brush approach to the probability of precipitation.
Broad northwest flow remains over the area but will slowly push off
to the east as weak ridging crests over the region on Wednesday.
Weak pieces of energy embedded in the southern stream will keep on
going chance to slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast through the
period. Best chances of precipitation will actually occur on Friday
as clipper type system moves across the northern tier states and
drags a cold front through the region.
Models agreement on how quickly this front makes it into Arkansas is
not extremely high but do have precipitation chances creeping into the
30-40 percent range across the north Friday and spreading south to
account for incoming frontal boundary.
Even with the periodic rain...actual quantitative precipitation forecast will be fairly light with
most areas seeing less than a half inch total through out the
period. There could be locally higher amounts in any thunderstorm
activity. Continued southerly flow will keep temperatures above
normal through Thursday with readings returning to more normal
Long term...Saturday through Monday...
High pressure will be moving over the region at the start of the
long term...with drier and cooler conditions expected on Sat. This
high pressure will shift east of the state for sun...with srly flow
returning. Initially...deep moisture levels will remain
limited...then gradually increase for Sun night into Monday as a warm
front lifts north. Have increased probability of precipitation for Sun night...though have
not gone too high at this point due to continued uncertainty in when
the deep moisture return commences.
By the end of the forecast...the warm front will be north of the
state...with Arkansas remaining in the warm sector. This will keep temperatures
warm. Do think some chances for rain will be needed on Monday...but no
major systems will be moving overhead early next week. This may
change in the coming days however...but only mention slight chance
probability of precipitation at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 78 54 75 61 / 20 20 30 30
Camden Arkansas 78 60 80 62 / 30 20 30 20
Harrison Arkansas 76 53 74 60 / 20 10 30 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 77 59 77 62 / 30 20 30 30
Little Rock Arkansas 77 59 78 62 / 30 20 30 30
Monticello Arkansas 76 60 79 63 / 30 20 40 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 77 59 76 62 / 30 20 30 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 78 53 75 60 / 20 10 30 30
Newport Arkansas 78 54 75 62 / 20 20 30 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 76 59 79 62 / 30 20 30 30
Russellville Arkansas 79 58 77 61 / 20 20 30 30
Searcy Arkansas 78 56 75 61 / 20 20 30 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 76 58 77 61 / 30 20 30 30