Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
610 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Discussion...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below...
&&
Aviation...
Overall VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Few to
scattered clouds will be seen with some broken ceilings due to
convection over Oklahoma spreading southeast today. This afternoon
some isolated convection may be seen at central to southern taf
sites...but only went with vcsh at this time due to uncertainty if
thunderstorms will hold together or redevelop. Winds will be light
this morning becoming more west to northwest less than 10 knots through the
day. Also a weak cold front will sag into Arkansas late day to this
evening and bring some additional clouds but remain VFR...while
winds will become more north to NE at less than 10 knots.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 209 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Short term...today through Sunday
Disturbance aloft will move southeast over southwestern Arkansas this afternoon as upper
flow turns northwest over the region. This disturbance could trigger some
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across portions of the County Warning Area...at the same time a cold
front moves southeast through the state late this afternoon and evening.
Have the best probability of precipitation...even though only slight chance...across the western
and southwestern third of the County Warning Area. Precipitation chances will remain across the far
SW and west during the overnight hours...but again only slight chance
for now as the front progresses SW.
Much drier and cooler air will move into the state behind this
front...with no precipitation expected for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be
below normal for this period...with highs generally in the upper 60s
to upper 70s on Friday. Sat morning lows will be cool...with lows in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Warming will begin by Sat afternoon as surface winds turn to the
south...as well as with an upper ridge overhead. This ridge will
begin weakening some late for sun. Weak upper disturbances will
ridge over this weakening upper ridge to the north and northwest of the
state...with increased chances for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain for late in the period.
Best chances for any precipitation will be across the northern and northwestern
counties sun and Sun night. Highs on sun will be back in the 70s
and 80s...with lows generally in the 60s.
Long term...Monday through Wednesday
The extended forecast generally has surface high pressure to the
east of Arkansas with a south wind flow into the region...while an upper
high pressure ridge will be over much of the east central to eastern
plains and to the eastern U.S. This will keep mostly dry and warm
weather conditions...with gradual increasing moisture over the
region. Early in the extend forecast some upper energy may reach
northwestern areas and a slight chance of convection is in the
forecast over these areas. After that the upper ridge over the area
should keep any chances very low...and mainly only an isolated
afternoon to early evening storm would be possible. Temperatures will be at
or a bit above normal values.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 80 53 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
Camden Arkansas 89 64 79 58 / 20 20 10 0
Harrison Arkansas 76 52 72 52 / 10 10 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 86 61 77 56 / 20 20 10 0
Little Rock Arkansas 86 60 75 55 / 10 10 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 89 62 78 56 / 20 20 10 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 85 60 77 56 / 20 20 10 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 77 51 73 52 / 10 10 0 0
Newport Arkansas 81 54 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 87 61 76 55 / 20 20 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 84 59 76 55 / 10 10 10 0
Searcy Arkansas 83 57 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 85 59 74 53 / 10 10 0 0
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Aviation...59
