Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
322 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016
Short term...today through Sunday night
biggest issue in the short term period is the system Sunday
and Sunday night. Models have continued to come back with warmer
temperatures in the lower levels...and as a result...the forecast
has been adjusted accordingly.
Early this morning...surface low pressure was located near the
western panhandles region of Texas and Oklahoma. As upper
troughing swings down into the plains later today...it will give
the surface system a push to the southeast. Isentropic uplift
in vicinity of and to the east of the surface low will push warm and humid
Gulf air up over the shallow cold air in place. Precipitation will
develop late tonight and on Sunday morning.
At this time...looks like there could be a brief period of
freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the central and northern
portions Sunday morning. However...with southeast winds
developing...temperatures should warm above freezing by the
afternoon in most of...if not the entire area. There could be a
brief changeover to freezing rain again in the far north/northeast
as temperatures fall back below freezing Sunday night.
With the warmer temperatures expected...and heavier precipitation
onset a little later than previously advertised...freezing rain
accumulations should be less than a tenth of an inch...and most
likely over the northern portions of the area.
Heavier precipitation will develop Sunday night...primarily
focused over the central and south. While amounts will not be
excessive...totals of half an inch to an inch appear likely.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in vicinity of the surface low. No
wintry precipitation is expected.
Long term...Monday through Friday
system will be exiting to the southeast of the area during the day
on Monday. Could see some lingering rain chances across the southeast half
of the forecast area through the afternoon hours but by evening have
all probability of precipitation out of the forecast. Any observed precipitation will be in
the form of liquid rain after 12z Monday.
With northwest flow aloft...a weak system aloft and wind shift at
the surface will move across the state Tuesday morning through middle
day. Most of the precipitation will remain just NE of the area...but have
drawn in slight probability of precipitation across far NE counties. A front is expected to
move across the state during the Friday into Saturday time frame but
it appears at this time only an increase in clouds is to be expected.
Temperatures to start the period will be rather cool but by middle to
late week we will be dealing with a fairly intense warmup. Portions
of western Arkansas will likely see highs in the 70s Thursday into
Friday. A brief cool down will arrive just after the end of the long
term period with the aforementioned front.
humidity will be much lower today...bottoming out in the 20th
percentile in most areas. However...sustained 20-foot wind speeds
will remain below critical thresholds. Moisture will increase
significantly during the day Sunday...as a storm system moves into
the region. This system will bring a good chance of rain for
mainly central and southern Arkansas on Sunday night into
Monday...with rainfall around half an inch to an inch in those
areas. Beyond that...no other significant weather is expected
through the remainder of the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 35 25 38 33 / 0 10 60 50
Camden Arkansas 47 33 55 45 / 0 0 20 70
Harrison Arkansas 37 25 40 33 / 0 20 50 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 43 30 49 39 / 0 0 30 60
Little Rock Arkansas 40 28 47 39 / 0 10 50 60
Monticello Arkansas 43 32 54 47 / 0 0 20 70
Mount Ida Arkansas 44 31 49 38 / 0 0 30 60
Mountain Home Arkansas 36 24 37 32 / 0 20 50 30
Newport Arkansas 34 25 38 33 / 0 10 60 60
Pine Bluff Arkansas 39 29 51 42 / 0 0 30 70
Russellville Arkansas 42 28 42 35 / 0 10 50 50
Searcy Arkansas 36 25 42 35 / 0 10 60 60
Stuttgart Arkansas 38 29 48 39 / 0 0 50 70
Short term...57 / long term...226