Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
825 PM CDT sun may 3 2015
Overall forecast on track. Some middle to high clouds will stream over
the northern half Arkansas overnight...associated with some short wave
energy and convection blow off clouds from storms over the Central
Plains. The upper west flow will keep some of the clouds over Arkansas.
Cloud could hold temperatures up a bit over those areas. Klzk 00z sounding
showing a low level jet setting up from the SW while precipitation water
value was up to 0.93 inches. Surface high pressure has moved east
and a south surface flow has brought dew point temperatures to the
50s...while evening temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s. Will fine
tune a few elements with late evening update but no significant
changes expected. (59)
Previous discussion.../issued 630 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/
Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening with only
scattered high clouds expected. Over northern Arkansas...a bit more middle
and high clouds...with patchy VFR ceilings at times. Overnight
mainly high clouds will be seen. Winds will be southeast to SW at 5 to 15
miles per hour this evening...lower to less than 10 miles per hour after sunset. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/
Short term...tonight through Wednesday night
A return of S/southwesterly winds across the natural state this afternoon has
allowed for low level moisture to make a return from the Gulf. This was
evident as surface dewpoints climbed well into the 50s...along with an
expanding cumulus field over the forecast area.
Not too many wholesale changes were made to the going forecast. Surface high
pressure will remain situated over the southeastern states...resulting in a continued
warm/moist southerly wind flow across the middle south. Meanwhile...an upper level
storm system is prognosticated to move ashore across Southern California on Monday. The system is
prognosticated to slowly translate northeastward into the central rockies by the middle
of the week.
A series of weaker impulses will eject northeastward from the main upper low on Tuesday
and Wednesday. These features will interact with the higher levels of moisture
in place to produce small chances of shra/tsra...mainly over the western
parts of the forecast area. Timing of the individual shortwave/S are always
problematic...so opted not to deviate far from the going pop forecast. MOS
temperatures seem reasonable...with some adjustments made to high temperatures
based on expected cloud cover the next few days.
Long term...Thursday through Sunday
Upper low pressure will be over the southeast and Northwest Corners
of the country to begin the period with ridging in between. The low
pressure areas will wobble around their respective areas without a
lot of movement. This will result in southwest flow over Arkansas
through the period.
Several upper level systems will move through the area during the
long term period. Small rain chances are expected Thursday and
Friday but will increase for Saturday into Sunday. No fronts are
expected to move through the area and temperatures will remain a
little above normal.
Short term...44 / long term...51