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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
648 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Discussion...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

Not much to discuss for the 00z taf package. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period. Expect few-sct060 to develop late
tomorrow morning. Late Tuesday afternoon and evening a wave will move
into eastern Oklahoma/Kansas and could spark off some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in western Arkansas before 00z.
Confidence in their occurrence...and subsequent coverage...is too
low at this point to include in any 00z tafs.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015/

Short term...tonight through Thursday night
recent observational data indicate only scattered cumulus across the
forecast area...with little vertical development. Chances for late
afternoon and early evening...single cell convection appears to be
rather limited...mainly due to large cinh remaining across the
forecast area.

A northwesterly upper flow will contunue to prevail across the
region during this period. Several waves...perhaps convectively
enhanced...are expected to move through the northwest flow... across
the Central Plains and middle-Mississippi Valley during this period.
Conditions appear favorable for organized convective complex type
activity...especially during the second half of the period. The
focus for this activity at this time appears to set up just north of
the forecast area. Extreme northern and northeast sections of the
forecast area have the best chance to be affected by these
mesoscale systems...which will be efficient rainfall producers.

55

Long term...Friday through Monday
models hinting that a weak cold front will move through the area
Friday and Friday night. The front may serve as a focus for isolated
to scattered showers or thunderstorms. The 500 mb ridge builds back into
the area Saturday and Sunday with rain chances becoming even more
scarce and likely limited to the northeast portions of the County Warning Area. The
front will also bring /less hot/ and drier conditions with temperatures
returning closer near normal values.

32

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 96 73 95 73 / 10 0 20 40
Camden Arkansas 99 73 98 74 / 10 0 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 94 71 91 69 / 10 0 30 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 99 72 97 75 / 10 0 10 30
Little Rock Arkansas 99 73 98 74 / 10 0 10 30
Monticello Arkansas 99 72 98 74 / 10 0 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 99 72 97 74 / 10 0 10 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 94 72 92 69 / 10 0 30 50
Newport Arkansas 96 73 95 73 / 10 0 20 40
Pine Bluff Arkansas 99 73 98 75 / 10 0 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 97 72 95 73 / 10 0 20 30
Searcy Arkansas 97 73 97 73 / 10 0 10 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 98 73 97 74 / 10 0 10 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...64

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