Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
655 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015
A weak system aloft will bring scattered light rain and a few
wet snowflakes to parts of northern/eastern Arkansas this
morning. This includes khro/kbpk. Across the North/East...there
will be widespread MVFR/some IFR conditions during the morning.
Conditions will become VFR this afternoon. Farther south...while
there will be a lot of middle clouds this morning...VFR conditions
are expected today. This will continue into tonight...with middle/high
clouds in the forecast.
Winds will be northerly at 8 to 14 miles per hour today...with some gusts
from 16 to 20 miles per hour. Winds will be light/variable tonight. (46)
Short term...today through Monday
An upper level shortwave is dropping south towards the state early
this morning...with some light rain dropping south from MO into the
northern counties of the County Warning Area. Will continue to mention a mix of
rain...sleet and even some snowflakes across portions of the northern
counties this morning as forecast soundings across this area show at
least some potential for a light wintry mix. If any wintry precipitation is
seen...no accumulations are expected with temperatures remaining above
freezing this morning.
The chances for light precipitation will drop southeast through early this
afternoon...with just some light rain expected across portions of
central and the eastern counties. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to
middle 50s across the northestern third of the state where the precipitation and
cloud cover will persist. Further south and west...expect highs in
the middle 50s to middle 60s.
Another upper disturbance will move southeast across the state late tonight
and especially for Sat morning...with another round of some light
precipitation expected across portions of the County Warning Area. The best chances for
seeing precipitation will be the northestern half of the County Warning Area...with chances higher
the further NE you go. Will again see some potential for a light
wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow tonight into Sat as well...though the
best chance for seeing any wintry precipitation will be across the far
north and northestern counties. No wintry weather accumulations are expected
with temperatures remaining above freezing tonight. The potential for frost
will also be limited as cloud cover will increase again tonight with
the approach of the upper wave. However...some sheltered areas
across the state could get cold enough to see some patchy frost.
Precipitation chances will diminish by Sat afternoon from northwest to southeast. Temperatures
will be similar to what is seen today...though maybe a few degree
cooler across the northestern counties for highs. Srly flow will return for
sun...allowing temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s for highs. A cold
front will drop south into the state Sun night...stalling out by Monday
morning. Due to moisture return being limited ahead of this
front...have only mentioned low end chance probability of precipitation as the front stalls.
Srly flow will return by the end of the short term period as this
stalled front slowly lifts north as a warm front. Keep some slight
chance probability of precipitation through the end of the period as this front moves
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
The extended period will begin with a front stalled in or just south
of the region...with small chances for rain across central and
southern Arkansas. As the front begins to wash out...a new cold
front will push into the region from the north late Wednesday/early
Thursday. Surrounding the new front...scattered showers and
thunderstorms are in the forecast. The new front will exit Thursday
afternoon...with a temporary end to precipitation. However...there
are indications that the front will stall like its predecessor...
and that could result in more rain chances as the period ends.
Long story short...it looks unsettled...but widespread heavy rain
is not expected. Temperatures through this time frame will be a
little above normal.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 53 34 47 35 / 30 20 40 0
Camden Arkansas 64 40 66 45 / 0 10 10 0
Harrison Arkansas 51 33 49 36 / 20 30 30 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 61 39 61 42 / 0 10 10 0
Little Rock Arkansas 58 37 54 40 / 10 10 20 0
Monticello Arkansas 60 39 60 44 / 0 10 10 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 60 39 63 41 / 0 10 10 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 52 33 47 35 / 20 30 40 0
Newport Arkansas 54 33 48 35 / 30 20 40 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 58 37 56 41 / 10 10 10 0
Russellville Arkansas 58 38 57 39 / 10 20 20 0
Searcy Arkansas 56 34 49 37 / 20 20 30 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 56 36 52 40 / 10 10 20 0
Short term...62 / long term...46