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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
229 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Discussion...

Main concerns this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
through the period...then a gradual warm up into next week.
Although an upper northwest flow sets up for part of the region...and some
possible short wave energy could move close to Arkansas...and develop
isolated convection as temperatures warm late into the weekend and next
week.

Today a drier and milder airmass has filter into Arkansas with a NE to
east surface flow. Only a slight chance of convection is possible in far
west Arkansas based on current and expected trends...although currently
only weak convection is seen over eastern OK. Some upper short
wave energy...albeit weak...is seen in the upper northwest flow.
Localized instability remains where Thursday convection set up
over western Arkansas. Otherwise...temperatures were a bit cooler to around
normal values this afternoon.

&&

Short term...tonight through Monday night

Will keep a slight chance in the evening for far western
Arkansas...otherwise a dry forecast with a warming trend for the weekend
and into early next week. The upper ridge does move a bit more
west...but still has influence over Arkansas with surface high pressure
in place. Aloft a broad upper trough will be over the eastern U.S.
And much of any short wave energy does stay north of Arkansas in the
model guidance...but an isolated storm may be seen. Convection at
this time would be low and isolated and will not include to early
next week. Temperatures will slowly warm over the short term and be a bit
above normal values...but should hold below 100 degrees. Moisture
will also slowly return into next week...but do not expect any
heat advisories until next week.

&&

Long term...Tuesday through Friday night...

The region will remain under the northestern edge of an upper level ridge
of high pressure during the extended term...with a predominant northwesterly
flow. Another frontal boundary will likely drop down across the area
late in the term. Timing is a bit uncertain at this time...and for
the moment I will tend to defer more toward a Friday to Friday night
time frame...which would bring increasing chances for precipitation
to the state. The main effect of the front...like the last one that
passed through...would be slightly cooler temperatures and lower
dewpoints.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 67 93 69 94 / 0 0 10 10
Camden Arkansas 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 65 91 67 92 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 68 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
Little Rock Arkansas 69 95 71 97 / 0 0 10 0
Monticello Arkansas 69 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 66 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 66 92 67 92 / 0 0 10 10
Newport Arkansas 66 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 67 95 68 96 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 67 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 69 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...59 / long term...53

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