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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1200 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Aviation...
widespread VFR conditions will prevail this period. Winds will be
light and from the north to northeast.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 840 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Surface high pressure continues to filter
in over Arkansas from the north...bringing a cool and dry air mass. Some
thin high clouds within the upper northwest flow and from the convection
blow off clouds...are streaming in over Arkansas. These clods will thin
overnight with loss of convection source. Otherwise temperatures will cool
to the upper 50s in northern Arkansas...while the 60s over the rest of the
state. A cool and mostly clear night expected. No significant
changes with late evening update. (59)

Previous discussion... /issued 622 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail. Light north winds will become more
easterly Tuesday...but will remain below 7 kts.

Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/

Short term...tonight through Thursday night

Cooler and much drier air continued to filter into the forecast area this afternoon
thanks to the passage of a cold front over the past 24 hours. Middle afternoon temperatures
were generally in the 80s.

The associated high pressure system will settle across the middle south through Tuesday
before shifting eastward. Along with a persistent northwesterly flow aloft...this
will keep temperatures at blw normal levels through the short term. Dry conds will
also persist through Tuesday...before unsettled conds return for Wednesday and
Thursday.

A developing storm system will approach from the plains states by Wednesday...with clouds
and rain chances incrsg over time. Most of the models remain fairly
consistent regarding the onset and extent of the resulting
overrunning rainfall that will develop. The latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Gem
still indicate the heaviest axis of rainfall will affect much of central and
southern Arkansas...which is more consistent with current forecast trends. Abundant
cloud cover and rainfall will keep high temperatures a good 10 to 15
degrees blw normal.

Long term...Friday through Monday

Models are generally in good agreement in the long term. Highly
amplified pattern continues to start the period with a large trough
to the east of the forecast area. Heading through the weekend...this
trough will begin to lift northeast allowing temperatures to
gradually warm...yet still remaining below normal.

At the surface...a nearly stationary cold front will remain south of
the state. The models indicate some overrunning will occur...with
the Euro a bit wetter than the GFS. As a result...did keep with the
forecast and maintain some small precipitation chances in the
forecast...mainly across southeast Arkansas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 61 83 63 81 / 0 0 0 30
Camden Arkansas 64 88 64 84 / 0 0 0 40
Harrison Arkansas 58 82 60 77 / 0 0 10 50
Hot Springs Arkansas 64 86 64 80 / 0 0 10 50
Little Rock Arkansas 64 85 64 81 / 0 0 10 40
Monticello Arkansas 65 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 40
Mount Ida Arkansas 62 86 63 79 / 0 0 10 50
Mountain Home Arkansas 59 83 61 78 / 0 0 0 40
Newport Arkansas 61 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 64 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 40
Russellville Arkansas 62 86 64 79 / 0 0 10 50
Searcy Arkansas 62 84 63 81 / 0 0 0 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 64 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 40
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...56

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