Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update for aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1245 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015
VFR flight conditions will start the period. However a cold front
will slowly move southward into Arkansas overnight and switch winds from
the S to SW to the northwest to north then eventually north to NE. Wind speeds will
be from 5 to 15 miles per hour. Also areas of MVFR cloud ceilings...with patchy
IFR...will slowly spread southward behind the front and reach much
of northern Arkansas early overnight...then gradually to parts of central
Arkansas around sunset. Sunday morning the ceilings will hold for much of
the morning...then gradually raise and thin in the afternoon. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
Short term...tonight through Tuesday night
Cloud cover finally exiting the state to the east this afternoon
leaving most of Arkansas under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures have
been able to warm rapidly as clouds departed...allowing dry air
aloft to mix down with the strong west/SW winds in place. Lake Wind
Advisory in place through 7 PM CDT will be left intact as
area wide strong winds will persist through the afternoon/evening
Cold front positioned to the north of Arkansas at this time will
move south and pass through the state during the overnight hours.
Dry conditions will be observed...but do expect widespread stratus
to develop...particularly across northern areas by daybreak.
Rain chances will return to the forecast...mainly across the west
initially Sunday evening before transitioning across the entire
state through Tuesday. This rainfall will be associated with an h500
trough traversing The Rockies and cutting off before reaching the
Southern Plains. Expect the best rain chances on Tuesday...with
rainfall quickly tapering off early Wednesday morning.
With this upper level system in place and northeast winds at the
surface...expect temperatures to remain below normal for this time
of year. Tuesday should be the coolest with the low overhead...
providing daytime highs some 15 degrees below normal.
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday
Overall the medium range looks rather uneventful with little if
any chance of precipitation and temperatures fairly close to where
they should be for this time of the year. Will continue to blend
forecast solutions this afternoon with a lean towards the slightly
more consistent European model (ecmwf)
Period initiates with a fairly weak...positively tilted trough
extending from the Red River valley all the way to western New York
state. Trough will exit the region by late Wednesday and at this
point...and only expecting occasional clouds with this departing
system. GFS has an upper low cutting off along the Gulf Coast with
the European model (ecmwf) only hints at this feature. Regardless...upper ridging
should keep the forecast area dry.