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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1145 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014


VFR conditions will continue through the night but a deck of stratus
clouds are expected by morning with MVFR conditions returning for the
remainder of the period. Did go and include some low level wind shear at
all taf sites through Friday morning. Only vcsh is justified at
this point but rain will likely be returning after the taf period
ends. South to southwest winds will continue.


Previous discussion... /issued 845 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/

current forecast right on target and no changes will be made at
this time.

Previous discussion... /issued 530 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/

VFR conditions currently in place will continue through the
evening hours before a deck of MVFR clouds overspreads the area
and remains there through the remainder of the period. No
precipitation is expected. The gusty south to southwest winds
experienced today have subsided but winds will continue from the
same direction through the period.

Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/

Short term...tonight through Sunday night

High pressure was centered along the northern Gulf Coast...with a develop surface
low noted over the eastern rockies. This resulted in breezy southerly winds
across Arkansas this afternoon. With just some high clouds noted...middle afternoon temperatures
managed to warm into the 50s at most locations.

Persistent southerly flow heading into Friday will allow for Gulf moisture/low
clouds to increases across the forecast area. The primary axis of best return of low
level relative humidity will be across western Arkansas through Friday...along with small rain chances. This
will also impact maximum temperature forecast on Friday depending on cloud cover at a
given location...with warmer readings expected over the eastern half of
the state.

The aforementioned storm system will eventually track eastward and bring an
associated cold front over the weekend. Good chances of rain will accompany the
frontal boundary...with likely probability of precipitation indicated over eastern Arkansas late Sat and Sat night.
With convection expected to form further southward along the Gulf Coast...
rainfall amts across Arkansas will not be excessive.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) as more progressive with taking the cold front dew
away from the forecast area sun...with just some lingering rain chances noted over
southeastern Arkansas. Meanwhile...the NAM...and to some extent the Gem...bring
another surface low northeastward along the boundary will rain chances persisting across
central and southeastern Arkansas into Monday. Followed closer the more consistent
GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions for now and will continue to watch model trends.

Long term...Monday through Thursday

Zonal flow will prevail for the beginning of next week...with
Canadian high pressure bringing cooler temperatures...especially
across the north. Guidance is continuing to slow down bringing the
next system into the region...and have the highest probability of precipitation for
Thursday. With the drier air in place at the onset of
precipitation...there is potential for a winter mix...and will
continue to fine tune the forecast as the system approaches.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 37 56 47 56 / 0 10 50 70
Camden Arkansas 38 61 53 63 / 0 20 50 80
Harrison Arkansas 39 55 45 50 / 0 20 60 50
Hot Springs Arkansas 40 58 50 58 / 0 20 60 70
Little Rock Arkansas 37 60 50 60 / 0 10 50 70
Monticello Arkansas 39 61 53 64 / 0 10 50 80
Mount Ida Arkansas 38 57 50 55 / 0 20 60 60
Mountain Home Arkansas 38 55 46 51 / 0 20 50 60
Newport Arkansas 37 57 48 56 / 0 10 50 80
Pine Bluff Arkansas 38 61 51 62 / 0 10 50 80
Russellville Arkansas 38 57 49 56 / 0 20 60 60
Searcy Arkansas 35 57 48 57 / 0 10 50 80
Stuttgart Arkansas 37 59 50 58 / 0 10 50 80

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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