Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
539 am CST sun Jan 25 2015
cold front will move through the region today. Pressure gradient
surrounding it will allow for gusty winds around 10 knots...with
gusts to 20 knots. Light rain will be possible early this morning
with the front...and again this afternoon as an upper level system
moves through. Beyond that...conditions will improve late tonight...
with cloud clearing out. Tafs already out.
Previous discussion... /issued 206 am CST sun Jan 25 2015/
Short term...today through Wednesday
A cold front and upper shortwave will move through the state
today...bringing increased cloud cover and some precipitation chances to
the County Warning Area. Regional radar imagery showing returns ahead of the front
across northestern OK and northwestern Arkansas...but much...if all of this activity is
not reaching the ground at this time due to the significant dewpt
depressions near the surface. Even so...do think over time that enough
lift will develop over northern portions of the state later this morning
into the afternoon hours to see some light rain or sprinkles as the
front and upper level energy move over the state. Have slight chance
probability of precipitation as far south as central sections of the state...with low end
chance probability of precipitation across the northern and northestern counties. Any rainfall amounts
should be light.
Breezy conditions will be seen most of the day...though the
strongest and more widespread winds will come with the frontal passage late
this morning and mainly this afternoon. Expect winds to switch to
the west and northwest behind the front...with sustained winds of 15 to 25
miles per hour expected...and gusts over 30 miles per hour possible. Winds will be
lightest across the far south and southeast...but should still be fairly
breezy. As a result...will Post a lake wind advection effective from 16z
this morning through 03z Monday for all counties.
For this Sun night...most of the moisture will move east of the
state...but there could be enough moisture remaining to squeeze out
some sprinkles across the northestern counties under the upper shortwave.
Some flurries may even be seen across the far northern and northestern counties
as temperatures cool overnight.
For the rest of the short term period...dry conditions are expected
and temperatures will be above normal as northwest upper flow shifts east and an
upper ridge shifts east over the region.
Long term...Thursday through Saturday
Frontal boundary will clear the area during the day Thursday...with
cooler air moving in behind it. An upper level system will develop
to the southwest of Arkansas by Friday. High pressure will move
east...with moisture increasing...and precipitation chances
returning to the forecast.
lake Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 9 PM CST this
evening for Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-