Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
635 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014


Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.



Have a mix of fog and low clouds this morning...with low clouds
being more prominent the further north you go in the state due to
influx of drier air at surface. As such...flight categories have
bounced around somewhat. Guidance shows fog and/or low clouds
lifting to VFR levels between 15z-18z most everywhere and this is
reflected in the tafs. Will probably see diurnally driven cumulus field
with few-scattered bases around 5k feet above ground level later today...followed by
return to clear skies after sunset. Expect there will be some fog
and/or low clouds again late tonight but it should be a little
more hit and miss Friday morning. Left it out of tafs for the time
being as confidence in location and how low flight categories will
go is not high at the moment. However...khot...kadf...and northern
sites are the most likely to see lower visibility or ceilings again late


Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/

Today through Sunday night...
overall...fairly benign weather is expected with little if any
chance of precipitation until late in the period. With all models in
basic agreement through the period...a blend of forecast solutions
will be used.

Latest surface analysis places the surface boundary that blasted
through the state yesterday is now located over the southern and
southwest parts of the state. High pressure building down from the
northern plains will push the boundary slowly to the south where it
is expected to stall out along the Louisiana border. Air mass behind
the front is slightly cooler and drier than the one it is replacing
but not nearly to the extent that was enjoyed early last week.

Upper pattern remains highly amplified at this time with sprawling
upper ridge extending from the northern High Plains to the Desert
Southwest. Subsequent downstream troffing over the eastern Continental U.S.
Will keep the area in northwest flow through tonight.

Meanwhile...a strong upper level low pressure system is straddling
the British Columbia and Washington border. This system will pivot
off to the northeast into central Canada before moving back into the
United States over northern Minnesota late Saturday.

System will knock down the ridge briefly and allow it to expand to
the east and into the middle south. This eastern expansion will
coincide with the aforementioned boundary lifting back to the
northeast as a warm front with widespread 90s returning Friday and
Saturday. Mav/mex numbers look good through the period and are
generally accepted.

As the previously mentioned upper low moves back into the United
States late Saturday...its surface reflection will drag a cold front
into northern Arkansas Sunday afternoon. This boundary will continue
to move southward...reaching the Arkansas/Louisiana border by the
end of the period. Front does not appear overly dynamic at this time
with the parent low so far off to the northeast but will still need
to carry slight chance to low end chance probability of precipitation as it moves through.

Long term...Monday through Wednesday
no significant changes made to the long term period. By Monday the
upper level pattern will become highly amplified...with a large
ridge over the intermountain west and a large upper trough carving
out a home across the eastern half of the Continental United States.
A cold front will have pushed into far southern Arkansas or northern
Louisiana by Monday morning and should remain stalled there through
the period. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
south during the day...but most of the state looks to experience dry
weather Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below
normal through the period as cooler and drier Continental air
filters into Arkansas from the north. Highs should remain firmly in
the 80s...roughly around 85 degrees on average. By Wednesday another
disturbance will be diving south through the plains towards
Arkansas...embedded in the northwest upper flow across the central
Continental U.S.. this should begin to spread precipitation into western
Arkansas sometime early Wednesday morning...with rain becoming
fairly widespread across the southern half of the state during the
day. Cloud cover and rainfall may hold temperatures in the upper 70s
to around 80 in the southwest half of the forecast area on
Wednesday...but limited it to the low 80s on the cool side for the
time being.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 85 62 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 92 68 94 71 / 10 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 86 64 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 90 66 93 70 / 10 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 88 63 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 91 66 93 69 / 10 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 91 67 93 71 / 10 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 85 62 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 85 62 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 90 64 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 88 65 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 86 62 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 88 63 92 70 / 10 0 0 0

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations