Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1132 PM CST sun Dec 8 2013
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion below.
Concern remains potential for fzfg development. With southwest winds
moving into southwest Arkansas...temperatures have been climbing the
last couple of hours...but will likely remain below freezing. Lower
ceilings and visible remain across northeast Texas...and expect this to move
northeast. Have left fzfg in tempo groups...with slow lifting of the
stratus Monday. While there may be some breaks in the cloud
cover...MVFR ceilings will remain for Monday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CST sun Dec 8 2013/
Short term...tonight through Wednesday night
Areas of freezing drizzle/fog lingering through much of the morning across the
forecast area...resulting in hazardous driving conds. Patchy freezing fog still
noted in some areas...mainly across northern Arkansas. Middle afternoon temperatures ranged from
the lower 20s to the lower 30s.
Southwesterly flow aloft will bring another weak impulse across the region
tonight...bringing small chances of mixed precipitation to mainly southeastern Arkansas. Surface
temperatures will hover close to or just blw freezing...with small chances of
rain/freezing rain expected. Very light quantitative precipitation forecast amts anticipated and not
expecting any headlines. Will also continue to mention patchy freezing fog over
mainly northern and central Arkansas where temperatures will remain blw 32f.
Yet another upper level system will track across Arkansas Monday night. This system will
interact with a weak cold front dropping southeastward through the forecast area to produce a
light wintry mix of precipitation. Parts of northern Arkansas could see a light dusting of
snow...but amts will be under an inch at best. With the light precipitation
amts expected...headlines are not anticipated at this time. But will continue to
monitor trends for the possibility of any advisory/S that might be
needed as the event unfolds.
High pressure looks to finally gain a footing across the middle south as we
head into the middle of the week. Expect to see more in the way of
sunshine...but temperatures will remain unseasonably cold.
Long term...Thursday through Sunday
A large area of low pressure will be over the Desert Southwest to
begin the period. This upper low will weaken as it moves into the
plains Friday and to the Great Lakes Saturday. Another trough moves
into The Rockies Saturday and the plains on Sunday.
Surface high pressure will be over the area Thursday with dry air.
This high will slide east of the area Thursday night and moisture
will return to southwest Arkansas. Chances of rain and freezing rain
will increase from southwest to northeast...changing to all rain
late Friday morning. Chances of rain will continue into Sunday. The
north will have chances of freezing rain Saturday morning and Sunday
morning. Several upper level systems will move through the area
Friday through Sunday. The upper trough on Sunday will push the
precipitation to the east by Sunday afternoon. A slow warming trend
is expected for the region with temperatures back to normal by the
end of the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 28 22 31 21 / 10 10 10 20
Camden Arkansas 34 27 42 30 / 20 20 10 30
Harrison Arkansas 28 20 29 17 / 10 10 10 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 32 26 36 27 / 10 10 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 30 26 35 25 / 10 10 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 34 29 41 30 / 40 30 10 50
Mount Ida Arkansas 32 27 35 23 / 10 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 26 22 29 18 / 10 10 10 30
Newport Arkansas 28 22 32 22 / 10 10 10 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 33 26 37 27 / 20 20 10 30
Russellville Arkansas 31 25 33 24 / 10 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 27 22 33 23 / 10 10 10 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 30 25 35 27 / 20 20 10 20
freezing fog advisory until 8 am CST Monday for Arkansas-Baxter-