Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
237 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Discussion...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are convection chances...
especially next week with the strong system...and severe storm
potential. Minor chances of isolated convection through the
weekend. Then at or above normal temperatures for the next several days.
Patchy fog...possibly dense in spots...will be seen.
Morning fog has dissipated...but morning stratus has held in spots
into the afternoon due to lack of mixing and atmospheric inversion
over Arkansas. Possible warm front analyzed over southern Arkansas with
clouds thinning south of it...while north...mostly cloudy
conditions prevail. This boundary will slowly lift north...but may
take longer than expected as upper system out west slows due to
upper ridging over the Central Plains. A few light showers were
noted over NE to east Arkansas earlier in the day...but additional isolated
convection has been held back due to clouds and inversion.
Moisture levels remain high across the state with 12z klzk
sounding having a precipitation water value of 1.43 inches while dew
point temperatures were in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the state.
The upper ridge has made little progress east today and is
centered along the Arkansas/OK/KS/MO state lines.
&&
Short term...tonight through Tuesday night
Will not include any isolated convection in first period due to
cap and upper ridge holding any develop low. Partly cloudy
overnight with mild temperatures and patchy fog...possibly dense in
spots. On Sunday...a mainly dry...warm and muggy day. Models do
indicate some weak upper level energy to move over Arkansas...especially
in western areas...and will keep the County Warning Area day...but indicate trend
over northwest Arkansas. Sunday night again models...especially GFS...has
weakening upper level energy over western Arkansas...as the upper system
moves a bit more east. Pop trend from slight to chance over northwest Arkansas
indicated in forecast. On Monday...again much of the upper lift
remains over west to northern Arkansas...and forecast has this
indicated. Monday night to Tuesday...the upper system is expected
to move more east and rotate much strong upper lift into Arkansas. The
better chances of strong to severe storms to affect Arkansas will be
Monday night over northwest areas...Tuesday over west to central...
Tuesday night to Wednesday over all of the state...then finally
pushing east later on Wednesday evening. All severe storm threats
will materialize as this strong system moves through Arkansas...large
hail...damaging winds...and isolated tornadoes. As for
temperatures...around normal to above normal values will be expected.
&&
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday
An upper low will be over the Midwest to begin the period. This low
will meander around Wednesday before moving east on Thursday through
the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will build over the plains Thursday
through Saturday.
A cold front in the plains will move slowly east Wednesday and stall
in northwest Arkansas. This will bring unsettled weather to the area
through the long term. A strong shortwave will move along the front
Wednesday and bring good chances of showers and thunderstorms. The
front will remain across Arkansas Thursday and Friday...though with
the upper ridge over the area...rain chances will be lower. Another
shortwave moves through western Arkansas Saturday and will bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures
are expected through the period.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 69 88 69 85 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 70 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 68 87 67 83 / 10 10 30 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 71 89 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 71 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 70 89 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 70 87 70 86 / 10 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 69 89 67 85 / 10 10 30 30
Newport Arkansas 70 89 71 85 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 71 88 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 66 89 69 85 / 10 10 20 20
Searcy Arkansas 69 86 69 86 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 70 88 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...61 / long term...51
