Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
656 am CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014
A warm front will move through Arkansas this morning. A cold front
will then move through the state this afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will become likely and some could be
strong to severe. South winds will increase and become southwest
this afternoon and west tonight. Wind gusts to 30 miles per hour are
Previous discussion... /issued 521 am CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014/
Short term...today through Sunday night
the near term will be active...starting with today.
A cold front will push into Arkansas from the plains
this afternoon. The upper level feature associated with the front
will provide colder air aloft...and this will build over surface
temperatures in the 70s/lower 80s. The atmosphere will become
quite unstable...with scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the
The timing of this event is almost perfect for severe
weather. Storms will fire up during peak heating...especially
from central into eastern sections of the state. Given
this...added severe wording to the forecast. While some
warnings will likely be issued...this is not expected to
be an outbreak of severe storms.
This will not be a big rainmaker either. Quarter to three
quarter inch amounts are expected across the northern and
eastern counties...with locally over an inch. Tenth to a
quarter inch amounts will be more common to the South/West...
with no rain at all in places.
Breezy south/southwest winds will approach lake Wind Advisory
criteria today. Winds will be strongest over the Delta this
afternoon ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest tonight and will decrease.
The aforementioned front will exit the region to the south/east
tonight...with most rain ending before midnight. It will be
slightly cooler at night given drier air/radiational cooling
behind the front. There will not be much change during the daytime...
with dry/warm conditions Friday/Saturday.
Phase two of this active period will unfold on Sunday. A powerful
storm system will move into the middle part of the country. At the
surface...a strong surface low will be over the Central
Plains...with a cold front extending southward through central
Kansas and central Oklahoma. Storms should explode ahead of the
front in the western half of Arkansas during the afternoon...and
will spread farther east at night.
The Sunday event could very well be a severe weather outbreak.
Also...there is much more potential for areas of heavy rain. Would
not be surprised to have two to three inch amounts or more.
Long term...Monday through Wednesday
a large upper low pressure system will be centered over the plains
to begin the long term period. As an upper ridge builds over the
West Coast Tuesday and Wednesday...the upper low will wobble over
the Midwest but affect much of the eastern U.S.
A cold front will be entering western Arkansas Monday morning. There
will be good chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
morning...then decreasing west to east in the afternoon. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe...and heavy rain will be
possible. Will keep small chances for showers in for Tuesday and
Wednesday as several short waves will rotate around the upper low.
Best rain chances should be in the north closer to the low. After a
very warm Monday ahead of the cold front...cooler temperatures are
expected behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 77 49 80 52 / 70 40 0 10
Camden Arkansas 82 56 83 53 / 50 20 0 10
Harrison Arkansas 72 47 79 51 / 80 30 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 78 53 81 53 / 50 20 0 10
Little Rock Arkansas 80 54 82 54 / 60 20 0 10
Monticello Arkansas 82 58 82 52 / 40 50 0 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 77 50 81 53 / 50 10 0 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 73 47 80 51 / 80 40 0 10
Newport Arkansas 78 50 80 52 / 60 40 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 82 56 81 53 / 50 40 0 10
Russellville Arkansas 76 49 81 53 / 60 20 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 79 51 80 52 / 60 30 0 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 81 54 81 54 / 50 40 0 10