Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
512 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...
Widespread rain showers ongoing just west of the area early this
evening...which will gradually shift east overnight into Friday. As
this area of rainfall approaches the terminals...expect MVFR or
lower flight rules to develop and likely persist for several hours.
The cold front will push through the northern terminals by midday and
early afternoon Friday...but beyond this taf period for the rest of
the sites. Tafs out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
Short term...tonight through Sunday night
Not much has changed regarding the forecast for the next few
days. The obvious main concern for the next few days is going to
be the heavy rains so the discussion will focus on that.
A cold front was situated from around Kansas City down through
north central Oklahoma and finally down to almost Lubbock Texas
this afternoon. This is the front that will move into the state
late tonight and then slowly crawl across the state over the
following 36 hours or so.
Widespread rainfall currently stretches from southeast Kansas southward
through Tulsa and towards the Dallas/feet Worth area this afternoon.
This plume of rainfall will pivot into Arkansas overnight as the
front approaches...and then stall out across the state as the
boundary inches through. As such...from midnight tonight through
the better part of the weekend...will have 80-100 percent rain
chances for much of the forecast area. The only notable amount of
uncertainty is exactly when the rain will make it to southeast
Arkansas. Have rain chances coming up the slowest in those
areas...with 50-60 percent rain chances not in the forecast for
Monticello until Saturday morning and even that may possibly be
Regarding rainfall amounts...the morning runs of almost all
models came in with slightly lower storm total amounts. The
forecast reflects this...however it should be noted that many
areas in the northwest half of the state...especially west central
and northwest Arkansas...are still going to receive an inordinate
amount of rain. Storm total values of 5-7 inches are still
expected from areas like Mountain Home and Harrison down through
Russellville...Montana Ida...and Mena...and over to the Oklahoma
border. The highest values will most likely be generally between
Russellville to Montana Ida and Mena and up to Fort Smith. While
thunder may not be prevalent...and as an aside I did stick with
stratiform precipitation wording in the zones...convection will be
embedded in the rainfall over the coming days. As such there will
be a risk of flash flooding...especially in western and northern
Arkansas where the combination of complex terrain and dormant
vegitation will produce runoff much more quickly than in flatter
areas of the state. Will continue the Flash Flood Watch
Precipitation will begin to wind down after the short term period
Long term...Monday through Thursday
Upper low pressure will continue over The Rockies Monday with upper
ridging over the Great Lakes. The upper low will move through the
plains Monday night and Tuesday and the Great Lakes Tuesday night.
An upper ridge will build over The Rockies Wednesday and move into
the plains Thursday.
The slow moving cold front will finally be out of southeast Arkansas
by Monday. The rain will come to an end Monday and dry conditions
are expected for Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure and dry air
will move into the area. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected
during the day through the period...and much cooler at night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 59 63 47 49 / 60 90 100 90
Camden Arkansas 63 70 62 64 / 30 50 70 80
Harrison Arkansas 57 56 39 43 / 100 100 100 80
Hot Springs Arkansas 63 68 54 55 / 60 80 90 90
Little Rock Arkansas 62 68 55 56 / 50 80 90 90
Monticello Arkansas 60 71 62 67 / 20 40 50 60
Mount Ida Arkansas 64 66 51 52 / 80 90 100 90
Mountain Home Arkansas 59 62 41 45 / 90 100 100 80
Newport Arkansas 59 64 50 51 / 50 80 100 90
Pine Bluff Arkansas 60 70 60 63 / 30 50 70 80
Russellville Arkansas 62 65 48 50 / 90 100 100 90
Searcy Arkansas 59 65 51 53 / 50 80 90 90
Stuttgart Arkansas 60 69 57 60 / 30 60 80 80
Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Baxter-Boone-