Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
115 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

a batch of low clouds will bring brief broken to overcast
conditions to the north for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise
only high level clouds are expected through the period as upper
level high pressure builds in. Widespread VFR conditions are
expected except for a little patchy fog around sunrise at a few
terminals. Winds will remain light.


Previous discussion... /issued 1010 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/


Overall forecast on track. Morning fog is dissipating and will take
all out with update. The upper trough has moved out of the region
and to the east...while upstream...a short wave with some moisture
was over the Central Plains. Will only see some high clouds into Arkansas
from this system with overall dry atmosphere. 12z klzk sounding had
a precipitation water value of 0.63 inches...with only moisture in lower 5k
feet. Quite dry aloft. Surface high pressure is over Arkansas at this
time...with dew point temperatures in the lower 50s...while temperatures were also
in the 50s. Winds were light and variable. Overall will see mostly
sunny conditions today with only some high clouds streaming over the
state with the upper northwest flow. Late morning update will only fine
tune a few elements with no significant changes expected. (59)

Previous discussion... /issued 632 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/


High pressure will continue to build over Arkansas today. Patchy
fog is expected this morning with MVFR and IFR conditions. Fog
will burn off by middle morning. High clouds will increase from the
north. Scattered cumulus are expected to develop. VFR conditions
are expected from middle morning through tonight in most areas.

Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/

Short through Monday night

The upper trough that brought clouds and a few showers to Arkansas on Thursday had
shifted east of the state early this morning. In its wake...mostly clear
skies were noted in most areas...along with some patchy fog. Early
morning temperatures ranged from the middle 40s to the lower 50s.

High pressure ridge situated over the natural state this morning will begin to
shift southeastward...with an incrsg S/southwesterly surface wind flow expected in the
coming days. This will also allow for a warming trend to commence across
the forecast area today and continue over the weekend as high pressure aloft builds into
the middle south. The warmest period will be Sat and sun as upper heights increases
across the middle south...with high temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward away from the region heading into
the new work week. This will allow a new cold front to approach Arkansas from the northwest.
The fnt will be close enough to northwestern Arkansas Monday night for small chances of
shra/tsra. Better rain chances will occur beyond this forecast period. Some of
the models are indicating that the fnt may stall out across the area early
next week.

Long term...Tuesday through Thursday

An upper trough will be moving into the Midwest and Mississippi
River valley Tuesday to begin the long term period with an upper
ridge over the East Coast. The trough will move through the Great
Lakes Tuesday night and to the East Coast by Wednesday. Zonal flow
will settle over Arkansas Wednesday. An upper ridge will then build
from The Rockies into the plains Thursday.

A cold front will be in northwest Arkansas by Tuesday morning. This
front will slowly move southeast through the state with showers and
thunderstorms along the front Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers will
end Wednesday night in southeast Arkansas. Will keep Thursday dry at
this time...though GFS and European model (ecmwf) models differ considerably. GFS is
drier than the European model (ecmwf). Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 75 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 78 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 77 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 75 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 75 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 76 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 77 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 76 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 75 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 75 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 77 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 75 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 75 53 83 58 / 0 0 0 0

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations