Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1233 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
MVFR conditions already at the northern sites...and will continue
through middle morning. At the southern sites...vcfg/br will be
possible due to the recent heavy rainfall and the proximity to
bodies of water. Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites by middle
Previous discussion... /issued 258 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/
Short term...tonight through Thursday night
A storm system aloft was over southeast Missouri this afternoon.
The system was triggering an isolated shower or two across the
region...but that is about it.
During the near term...the system will slowly exit to the east.
In the meantime...a ridge of high pressure will gradually build
over Arkansas from the Southern Plains. This will result in
dry weather and no chance of rain.
There will be a slow warming trend. Temperatures will start off
below normal...but will rise to near normal levels.
Long term...Friday through Monday
Long term begins with an upper level ridge to our west and
Arkansas under northwest flow. The 12z GFS and the 12z European model (ecmwf) have
backed off on the rainfall from previous forecasts with the front
forecast to move through the state on Saturday. Continued the
previous shifts trend of keeping temperatures below guidance due
to the recent rainfall...however high temperatures still remain
right around normal.