Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
650 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

northwest flow continues over the area. Clouds and showers are
dissipating over the state. However...another area of clouds is
moving southeast through Missouri. These clouds will reach north
Arkansas early this evening. Clouds will increase elsewhere...and
rain chances will increase in the morning. Expect lowering cloud
decks in the morning as MVFR conditions. Scattered light
rain showers are expected through the day Saturday. VFR and MVFR
conditions are anticipated through the period.


Previous discussion... /issued 244 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015/

Short term...tonight through Monday night

Have continued to see a weak frontal boundary make its way through
the state today...with dewpoints dropping quickly behind the front
and winds picking up. Beginning to see the pressure gradient relax a
bit across SW Missouri and southeast Kansas...therefore think allowing the
lake Wind Advisory expire at 00z seems on track. Precipitation across the
state has been stubborn with clouds being slow to clear. Just made
some minor tweaks to the pop grids for the remainder of the
afternoon and brought probability of precipitation a bit further to the west.

Main concern with the short term will be overnight low temperatures
with probability of precipitation entering the forecast. The mav has come in quite a bit
colder with the latest models runs...with the met hinting at it as
well...but not nearly as drastic. Trended the overnight low forecast
more towards the met. Winds will become light overnight
tonight...but clouds will begin to increase after 06z...which will
help keep temperatures a bit warmer. Also have slight chance probability of precipitation
going across northern Arkansas...with chances generally for
rain...but can not rule out a few flakes flying across the north.

Low temperatures into Saturday morning could be a bit trickier. Mav
came back six degrees cooler across northern Arkansas with the met
about two degrees cooler. Did trend min temperatures downward...but still
kept readings above freezing. Again...clouds will be prevalent and a
second round of precipitation will be possible. The GFS and NAM have
come back a bit wetter with this system...but still think temperatures will
be just warm enough to minimize any winter weather hazards.

Southerly flow and warmer temperatures will return for Sunday before
the next cold front moves through the state and brings precipitation
chances back to the forecast.

Long term...Tuesday through Thursday

Overall the period looks to be unsettled at best with several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms to contend with. Medium range models
remain in good enough agreement that a blend of solutions is
preferred but none of them really produce large amounts of rain.

Period initiates with a stalled out front stretched out across the
southern third of the state with a continuing chance of rain along
this boundary as it washes out. Meanwhile another wave of low
pressure will lift out of the Southern Plains with more
precipitation possible.

This will be followed by a cold front dropping down from the north
with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. The new
front will exit Thursday afternoon...with a temporary end to
precipitation. However...there are indications that the front will
stall like its predecessor...and that could result in more rain
chances as the period ends. Temperatures will run slightly above


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 34 45 34 64 / 20 40 0 10
Camden Arkansas 41 64 45 76 / 10 10 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 34 49 36 65 / 20 30 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 39 60 43 72 / 10 10 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 38 52 40 70 / 10 20 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 39 57 44 74 / 20 10 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 37 62 42 72 / 10 10 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 33 49 35 65 / 20 40 0 10
Newport Arkansas 34 45 36 63 / 20 40 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 38 53 42 72 / 10 20 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 38 57 39 69 / 20 20 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 34 47 36 67 / 20 40 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 37 49 40 69 / 10 30 0 0

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations