Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
243 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Short term...tonight through Saturday night
latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate scattered
cumulus across northern and central sections of the forecast area.
Instability analysis indicates surface based cape values from
1000-1500 k/jg across the area. Any forcing mechanisms to realize
this energy would be very small scale in nature...and likely not
sufficient to produce any convection before the loss of solar
insolation.
A weak disturbance in northwest flow...and associated surface
reflection will affect the state on Thursday. Forcing may be
sufficient to produce widely scattered...weak convection across
mainly western areas during the afternoon and early evening. Much
drier conditions will filter south the region behind the
boundary...and will promote dry conditions for the remainder of the
period.
&&
Long term...Sunday through Wednesday
an upper ridge will be over the central U.S. To begin the period.
The ridge will remain over Arkansas through Monday and begin moving
east late Tuesday. An upper trough also digs into the southwest U.S.
Tuesday and will slowly move east Wednesday.
A short wave moving through the area with a warm front Sunday will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Will continue the
chances of rain through Monday morning. Drier air returns to the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are expected
through the period with a warming trend.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 54 81 52 74 / 0 10 10 0
Camden Arkansas 55 89 61 79 / 0 20 20 10
Harrison Arkansas 50 77 50 73 / 0 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 54 85 58 76 / 0 20 20 10
Little Rock Arkansas 58 85 58 76 / 0 20 10 0
Monticello Arkansas 60 88 61 79 / 0 20 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 52 84 58 76 / 0 20 20 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 51 79 50 74 / 0 10 10 0
Newport Arkansas 57 82 54 74 / 0 10 10 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 59 86 60 77 / 0 20 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 53 83 56 76 / 0 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 57 83 55 74 / 0 10 10 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 61 85 59 76 / 0 10 10 0
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...55 / long term...51
