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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
636 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Aviation...

Tonight a cold front will approach the state from the north and
bring precipitation chances to the forecast across khro and kbpk
after 06z. Precipitation chances will likely hold off across
central Arkansas through middle day on Wednesday. As a result...once
again could see some patchy fog across portions of central and
southern Arkansas with mainly MVFR conditions expected.
Precipitation chances will diminish before the end of the taf
period for all locations except kpbf and kllq.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/

Short term...tonight through Friday night
the near term pattern will feature a ridge of high
pressure over the central and southern rockies and
central and Southern Plains. East of the ridge...a
trough will exist east of the Mississippi River.

The ridge will be far enough to the west to allow a cold
front to move into Arkansas from the north on Wednesday.
The front will have no problem pushing through areas
east of the state where troughing exists. It appears
the front may make it into Louisiana before stalling
on Thursday.

The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Precipitation will be possible north of
Little Rock tonight...and in areas farther south as the
front passes by. Any severe weather will be isolated.
While locally heavy downpours are expected...widespread
heavy rain is not in the forecast.

It will cool off briefly behind the front on Thursday.
The front will move back to the north on Friday...with
summerlike conditions returning.

Temperatures will be close to normal Wednesday and
Friday...and below normal Thursday.

Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
period will initiate with a large upper trough digging into the
Great Lakes region with a broadening ridge of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest. Arkansas will remain sandwiched between the
two...creating northwest flow and allowing several pieces of
shortwave energy to pass through the region with at least a chance
of isolated convection daily. On Sunday a frontal boundary will pass
through and give US the best chance of precipitation. Rain cooled air will
drop temperatures back down below seasonal normals Mon/tues...with highs
back in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 70 91 67 85 / 10 40 30 10
Camden Arkansas 71 93 72 93 / 10 20 30 30
Harrison Arkansas 69 90 66 86 / 20 40 20 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 70 92 72 91 / 0 30 40 20
Little Rock Arkansas 72 92 72 89 / 0 30 40 20
Monticello Arkansas 71 92 71 93 / 10 20 30 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 68 92 68 91 / 0 30 30 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 92 67 86 / 20 50 20 10
Newport Arkansas 72 91 67 85 / 10 40 30 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 72 92 71 89 / 0 20 40 30
Russellville Arkansas 68 93 71 91 / 10 40 30 10
Searcy Arkansas 70 91 70 85 / 10 40 40 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 72 91 71 86 / 0 30 40 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...225

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