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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1224 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Update...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

&&

Aviation...

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the taf period...though
some lower flight categories could be seen around kpbf/kllq around sunrise.
Some high clouds noted in places at this time...with some 5kft clouds
across SW Arkansas. Should see quite a bit of cumulus develop at or above 5kft
Wednesday with a middle level deck above that. Winds will primarily
be out of the southeast through the period...mainly below 10
kts...though a few gusts may be seen at northern terminals. Should
not have much sh/ts activity through the 06z taf period...though
some isolated activity may develop late in the day Wednesday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 946 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014/

Update...

Minor update to account for mainly temperatures trends tonight. Low level dry
air remains in place across northestern Arkansas where dewpoints are still in the
50s. Meanwhile...seeing low level moisture slowly on the increases over
southwestern Arkansas. Adjusted min temperatures overnight based on these trends. Also
did mention a slight chance of rain showers across southwestern Arkansas late tonight due to
incrsg lift/moisture advection. This has also been indicated by the
last several hi-res model runs. Rest of forecast in good shape...all
updates are out. /44/



Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014/

Short term...tonight through Friday night
surface observations again indicate above normal temperatures across
the forecast area this afternoon. Above normal temperatures are
again expected through Thursday. Southwest sections will see
increased cloud cover...and even widely scattered shower activity on
Wednesday...as modest lift...and relatively low condensation
pressure deficits develop...in the 650-750 hpa layer.

Frontal system is still prognosticated to affect the County Warning Area late
Thursday/Thursday night. Forecast instability and shear profiles
continue to suggest the development of a linear mesoscale convective system...with a late
afternoon/evening window for the potential of severe wind gusts.

Noticeably cooler conditions are expected for Friday and Friday night.

Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
the weekend will be very fall like in the wake of the front...with
cooler and drier air being ushered in by northwest flow. Saturday
will be the coolest day of the long term...climbing back into the
lower 80s by Monday/Tuesday. Added some small probability of precipitation to north Arkansas
on Tuesday as the upper level pattern flattens out and weak
disturbances Glide over southern Missouri.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 88 68 86 61 / 10 10 50 80
Camden Arkansas 90 71 89 65 / 20 10 40 80
Harrison Arkansas 85 68 82 55 / 10 20 70 60
Hot Springs Arkansas 88 70 85 61 / 10 10 70 70
Little Rock Arkansas 90 69 87 63 / 10 10 50 80
Monticello Arkansas 90 70 89 66 / 10 10 20 80
Mount Ida Arkansas 86 69 83 59 / 10 10 70 60
Mountain Home Arkansas 87 67 85 58 / 10 20 70 70
Newport Arkansas 89 67 87 62 / 10 10 30 80
Pine Bluff Arkansas 90 69 88 64 / 10 10 30 80
Russellville Arkansas 88 69 85 60 / 10 20 70 70
Searcy Arkansas 89 68 86 62 / 10 10 40 80
Stuttgart Arkansas 90 68 87 63 / 10 10 30 80
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...226

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