Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
522 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015
lower clouds will diminish in the next few hours...with conditions
improving to VFR in all areas. Tafs already out.
Previous discussion... /issued 219 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015/
Short term...today through Thursday
Some clouds remain on the back side of the departing storm system
that brought some light rain to portions of the state on sun...as
well as the breezy conditions. The breezy northwest winds have relaxed
considerably since Sun afternoon...with generally 5 to 10 miles per hour
observed early this morning. These northwest winds will gradually shift to
the SW this afternoon...with temperatures rebounding into the 50s to low
60s. The clouds across portions of the County Warning Area this morning should
gradually dissipate for this afternoon as well.
A very weak front will move through the state tonight...but only a
wind shift is expected with this front...and northwest winds of only 5 to
10 will be seen behind this front. The nearly winds will persist for
Tuesday afternoon...but temperatures should still manage to warm into the middle
50s to upper 60 due to ample sunshine. Srly flow will return again
for Wednesday...with more substantial srly flow expected. As a
result...temperatures should warm to the low 60s to maybe some low 70s
across the west Wednesday afternoon. A few more clouds may be seen
however...though conditions should remain dry for Wednesday.
A new...stronger cold front will move through the state on
Thursday...with breezy northwest winds expected to end the short term period. Dry
conditions should persist as moisture levels will remain limited.
However...the upper shortwave passing overhead may generate enough
lift to see some light precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening. Best
chances for seeing precipitation will be east of the County Warning Area...so keep silent
probability of precipitation at this time. May have to increase probability of precipitation in later forecasts if
moisture levels become higher than currently expected.
Long term...Friday through Sunday
As high pressure moves east on Friday...Pacific moisture will
increase from the southwest...as an upper low moves into Baja California
California. At the same time...low pressure will form in the Gulf...
sending low level moisture into the region. So...it GOES without
saying...rain chances will increase by Saturday...with precipitation
continuing into Sunday.
Precipitation type will depend on the depth of the cold airmass in
place. Indications are that there could be some mixed wintry
precipitation in portions of the area...and have continued to trend
the forecast as such. However...confidence is low at this time...
given model performance in the extended range as of late.