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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
351 am CDT sun may 3 2015

Short term...today through Wednesday night

No significant changes were made to the short term with the
morning forecast package. High pressure will build to the east of
Arkansas today and into early next week...keeping a warm and moist
return flow setup situated over the region through the first half
of next week...though humidity levels will take a day or so to
increase dramatically. Meanwhile an upper trough will carve out a
home along the western Seaboard. Model trends over the past few
days have been to gradually push back the arrival of any shower
and thunderstorm activity into the forecast area with each model
run...with any disturbance ejecting from the western trough having
a difficult timing making much progress to the east thanks to the
building ridge over the southeast Continental U.S.. thus rain chances will
remain low through the period...with the highest chances being in
the west...and temperatures will continue at or above normal
values.

Do have some slight chance probability of precipitation in the west on Tuesday to account
for the possibility of isolated to scattered afternoon convection
in the region of best moisture transport. Better...albeit still
small...rain chances will exist in western Arkansas on Wednesday
as a notable shortwave trough shifts northeast through New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle and into western Kansas. This may have
enough eastward movement...and generate enough convection...to
push rain into the western counties. But even then...only have
20-30 probability of precipitation in the west to account for this.

&&

Long term...Thursday through Saturday

Pattern through the extended period still looks a little on the
muddled side as models continue to delay the ejection of the
dominant western US low. While the models do agree in the overall
synoptic pattern...some differences concerning quantitative precipitation forecast arise with GFS
fairly drier versus its European model (ecmwf) counterpart. Will try to split the
differences between the models this morning.

Period initiates with upper ridging over the southeast part of
the nation and upper troughing along the West Coast. Resultant
upper pattern will place the forecast area in a broad southwest
flow aloft. There will be a few pieces of energy moving through said
flow but of course pinning these down is almost impossible.

Models also picking up on a retrograding upper low that will
looks to undercut the aforementioned southeast Continental U.S. Ridge. This
may end up pumping up the upper ridge even more and keeping
precipitation at Bay. A wait and see approach will be taken with
probability of precipitation only in the slight chance category with somewhat better
chances over the west. Much uncertainty exists with this
complicated pattern and changes to the extended forecast seem
likely.

In spite of cloud cover and precipitation in the area...broad
southwest flow will help pull temperatures to above normal levels. The
mav/mex numbers look reasonable and are generally accepted.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 80 59 81 60 / 0 0 10 10
Camden Arkansas 83 59 82 62 / 0 0 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 81 59 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 82 60 82 61 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 82 60 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 80 58 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 10 10
Newport Arkansas 80 59 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 82 60 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 81 59 81 59 / 0 0 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 81 58 81 60 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 81 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...64 / long term...56

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