Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
350 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
Short term...today through Tuesday night
An area of high cloud debris continued to work southeastward across Arkansas last night and
early this morning...associated with convection that occurred in the plains
on Friday. Meanwhile...surface high pressure remained situated across southern MO and northwestern
Arkansas...providing a light northeasterly wind flow over the forecast area.
The aforementioned surface high will meander over the natural state through
the weekend...resulting in a stagnant weather pattern. Conds today will be
similar to Friday regarding temperatures...with highs mainly in the lower and
middle 90s. Readings will be a few degrees warmer on sun as the surface high
slips southward and winds take on more of a southwesterly component. The gradual
warming trend will continue into early next week...along with an increases in
Some of the hi-res model data continue to indicate scattered convection forming
later today across parts of MO...along with a possible mesoscale convective system forming over
parts of eastern NE/western Iowa. Expect most of this activity to diminish
tonight...with associated high clouds spilling southeastward across Arkansas overnight.
Models continue to indicate that a new storm system will organize in the Southern
Plains by Tuesday. This feature will continue to work eastward...bringing an increases
chance of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to parts of the forecast area to close out the short term.
Used a blend of model guidance regarding timing as model solutions
do differ on timing and eventual track of this system by midweek.
Long term...Wednesday through Friday
Upper high pressure will be centered near The Four Corners region
to begin the long term period. Northwest flow will be over Arkansas.
This ridge will slowly move east through the period and may enter
western Arkansas Thursday night and Friday.
Several short waves are expected to move through the northwest flow
and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area. On
Wednesday...the best chance will be in the north and central
sections. The best chances Thursday and Friday will generally be in
the northeast half of the area. Temperatures will be mainly in the
90s but the humidity should not be oppressive...as it was last week.
Short term...44 / long term...51