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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
557 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015


Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...



The rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity that is ongoing early this evening will
continue to dissipate with the loss of the daytime heating. Some
patchy fog will then be possible overnight...especially in areas
that saw rainfall this afternoon. Some very isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
will be possible again on Thursday...but coverage too isolated to
mentioned in taf at this time.


Previous discussion... /issued 228 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/


Main concerns this forecast cycle are chances of convection in
the afternoons to early evenings...albeit overall lowering
potential through the end of the week and into the weekend. Little
to no severe storm risk. Otherwise temperatures will be at or above
normal values.

Middle and high clouds again did streamed in over southeast Arkansas from the
south due to convection over the Texas and la Gulf Coast. These
clouds have thinned and had minimal affect on temperatures. Afternoon
temperatures were from the upper 80s in the the 90s central
and south. This afternoon a bit more convection has developed than
Tuesday...with the highest concentration over southern Arkansas with
more isolated in central to eastern Arkansas. This is still associated
with the weak upper low pressure trough over the region...and with
some heat...moisture and afternoon heating combining. Convection
will be on going through early evening...then after sunset...all
should gradually dissipated.

Short term...tonight through Saturday night

Evening convection will gradually weaken and dissipate after
sunset...with dry conditions overnight. Mostly clear to ares of
partly cloudy skies will be seen...with some possible patchy
fog...especially in areas that had rain. The upper low pressure
trough is forecast to continue to weaken through the end of the upper high pressure builds into the region from the
west. However...isolated convection will be seen in the afternoon
to evenings Thursday and Friday...with an overall lowering into
the weekend...but an isolated storm will still be possible. Temperatures
will slowly warm into the weekend...and reach more low to middle 90s
as the upper ridge builds in from the west.

Long term...Sunday through Wednesday

An upper ridge will be anchored over southwest Texas to start the
period...with the ridge extending northeast through Oklahoma and
Missouri and into the upper Midwest initially. However a shortwave
trough moving through the Pacific northwest and into the northern rockies and
northern plains on Sunday will knock the ridge down a little late
Sunday and into Monday. Another shortwave will follow a similar path
and further flatten the ridge by midweek.

While the ridge will be the dominant feature to start the
period...some changes are coming. The first of the aforementioned
shortwaves will allow a cold front to approach the region from the
plains on Monday...with the secondary shortwave pushing a front into
the state from the north sometime late Wednesday. Rain chances will
increase across northern and northwestern parts of the state Monday
and Tuesday afternoons...with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible. Better rain chances will exist on Wednesday though.

Temperatures will start off on the warm side...with highs in the middle
90s or so on Sunday...but will gradually fall through the week as
clouds and rain chances increase.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 71 94 70 94 / 20 10 0 10
Camden Arkansas 71 95 72 96 / 50 20 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 68 90 68 90 / 20 10 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 72 94 72 95 / 30 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 72 95 72 95 / 40 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 72 96 73 96 / 50 20 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 70 93 70 94 / 20 10 0 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 69 93 69 92 / 20 10 0 10
Newport Arkansas 71 94 71 94 / 20 10 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 72 95 72 95 / 50 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 71 95 71 94 / 20 10 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 71 94 70 95 / 40 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 72 94 72 95 / 50 10 10 10

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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