Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
645 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014
Aviation...11/12z taf cycle
Weak upper impulse dropping southeastward through the area this morning producing
scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms and rain over central and eastern Arkansas. Based on radar trends...
included vcsh at klit early in the period. Some patchy br /MVFR visibilities/
noted across the area as well...with kpbf reporting IFR/LIFR conds
at this time. Conds will improve later this morning as surface winds pick up and
boundary begins to lift slowly northward. Otherwise...VFR conds will prevail.
Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CDT Friday Jul 11 2014/
Short term...today through Monday night
Some isolated to scattered showers are once again present across
the forecast area this morning. These will continue through the
morning hours then increase in coverage somewhat during the
afternoon hours. The best rain chances will be in central and
southeast portions of the state. Have only showers mentioned in
the morning...with thunder introduced during the afternoon.
Temperatures the past couple of days have been a bit problematic
and...at least by this forecaster...been over estimated in many
areas. While a multi-day warming trend is forecast to begin
today...radar trends...cloud cover...and surface observation are very
similar to yesterday. As such...decided to dampen the warming
trend slightly and lower expected highs just a tad. The biggest
effect was probably in the north central and northeast parts of
the forecast area...lowering highs about 2-3 degrees. Should still
see upper 80s there...but stopped shy of 90. Elsewhere...just
lowered them a degree or so. Still think low 90s will be possible
in the southwest to central Arkansas. Of course this is banking on
there being less convection today vs yesterday and subsequently
less cloud cover. Time will tell. In any case a significant
warming trend will occur through the weekend...with highs in the
middle and upper 90s expected by Sunday. Meanwhile dewpoints will
remain high as well...in the upper 60s to low 70s during the
afternoon...so heat indices will rise to the 100-105 degree range
Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
The big story for the short term will be the dramatic pattern
change for next week. By Sunday afternoon the low amplitude upper
pattern across the lower 48 will amplify dramatically as a large
and deep upper trough takes residence over the Great Lakes region.
By Monday a legitimate summertime cold front will be pushing south
through the Central Plains and Missouri...knocking on
Arkansas/Missouri border door by midnight Monday night. Monday
will still be a warm day for central and southern Arkansas...with
very muggy conditions expected as the front nears the forecast
area. Ahead of the front...showers and thunderstorms will
Blossom and become increasingly widespread by Monday evening. With
convection ongoing...and the front not entirely through the
forecast area...Monday night is still likely to be a mild night
with overnight lows in the middle 60s to middle 70s. However the long
term will feature fantastic summertime weather as noted below.
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
North upper low will be situated over the Great Lakes region at the start of
the period. The resulting northwesterly flow aloft over the middle south will be
driving a strong cold front through central and southern Arkansas early on Tuesday. The fnt
will eventually shift well S of the area during the latter half of the
forecast period. Continued to mention lingering small rain chances over the southern half
of the area on Tuesday as the cold front clears the area.
The main highlight of the forecast will be the unseasonably cooler airmass
that will settle into the region by midweek as high pressure builds over Arkansas.
High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be range from the upper 70s to the middle
80s...with nighttime lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Clouds will be on the increases from the west Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak upper level
impulse drops southeastward into the Southern Plains states. The associated lift with
this feature will bring small rain chances to central and southern Arkansas heading
into Thursday as moisture advects northward over the stalled fnt boundary to our