Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1224 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015
MVFR ceilings across central sections will clear by 29/1930z.
Coverage of thunderstorms and rain from 30/06-12z is expected to be sufficient to
mention in taf forecast across the southeast third of the
Previous discussion... /issued 1058 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
Quick update to the forecast to get rid of frost advisory wording
and update forecast to reflect the current trends. Low clouds have
continued to spread north through the area this morning...as
clouds also approach the state from the northwest. Continue
thinking that southerly winds will increase through the day and
clouds will dissipate. Hi res models continue to show showers and
thunderstorms developing after 00z...with the WRF a bit more
enthusiastic than the hrrr. Model soundings do support the
forecast with elevated thunderstorm potential...with the best
chances for stronger thunderstorms across the southern half of the
Previous discussion... /issued 611 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below...
Some MVFR ceilings have lifted north early this morning...which should
persist through several hours this morning. A warm front will lift
north over the state today...which should allow these MVFR ceilings to
lift during the afternoon hours as srly flow increases...resulting in
VFR conditions. A cold front will drop south through the state
this evening and overnight...with precipitation chances increasing. Northern
sites will just see some isolated activity...so have only
mentioned vcsh here. Further south...mention some prob30 groups
for shra/tsra...with some MVFR conditions possible. Winds will
switch to the north behind the front late tonight across central
and northern sites. Llq may remain south of the front through 12z Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 342 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
Short term...today through Thursday night
The last Sunday of the month is starting out a bit on the chilly
side with widespread 30s to a few lower 40s showing on the latest
surface observations. Clouds associated with a weak upper wave that
brought light precipitation to the state Saturday have finally
cleared...leaving ideal radiational cooling conditions in place.
Still can not totally discount some frost over the northeast and
will let the frost advisory continue as is although it will be
patchy in nature.
Short term models remain in good agreement this morning both with
the current forecast and with each other. That being said...will not
be making any real value added changes to the generally unsettled
forecast this morning.
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will be moving to the
east today providing the area with southerly winds and temperatures
on the rebound in response. Clouds will begin to stream back in
tonight as a shortwave trough progresses eastward across the Great
Lakes with its associated surface cold front straddling the
Arkansas/Missouri border by the end of the day. No precipitation
today is expected at this time.
Precipitation begins to develop along the boundary but not until it
gets to the central and southern sections of the state. The boundary
looks to settle over the southern part of the state where it will
briefly stall before washing out. A couple of weak disturbances
will move along the boundary for ongoing precipitation chances
before the next cold front approaches the area as the period
concludes. Even though precipitation chances are in the forecast
most of the period...actual rainfall amounts will be on the light
side. Temperatures will average slightly above normal.
Long term...Thursday through Saturday...
An upper level wave will be moving east of the state at the start
of the long term period...with some lingering rain chances across
eastern sections of the state. However...a cold front to the northwest of the
state will drop slowly southeast towards Arkansas...and with the approach of
another upper disturbance...have increasing probability of precipitation from the northwest Thursday
and Thursday night. This front will drop south through the state for
Friday...being south of the state Friday night. Probability of precipitation will remain up
through Friday...then decrease probability of precipitation Friday night as the drier air moves
into the state from the north. High pressure will move over the
state for the end of the forecast period...with precipitation chances
remaining low. Temperatures will remain at or above normal Thursday and
Friday...then decrease below normal for Sat behind the front. At this
time...no organized severe weather is expected through the period...but
with temperatures above normal south of the front...could see an isolated
strong to severe storm Thursday and Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 63 45 68 49 / 10 30 10 10
Camden Arkansas 80 57 71 57 / 10 40 30 30
Harrison Arkansas 70 41 68 49 / 10 20 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 72 51 70 55 / 10 40 10 30
Little Rock Arkansas 71 50 70 53 / 10 40 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 76 57 70 56 / 10 40 30 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 74 50 70 55 / 10 40 10 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 66 42 70 49 / 10 20 0 10
Newport Arkansas 63 45 68 48 / 10 30 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 73 53 69 55 / 10 40 20 20
Russellville Arkansas 70 47 71 52 / 10 30 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 64 47 69 50 / 10 40 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 68 50 69 53 / 10 40 10 10