Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
702 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Aviation...28/00z taf cycle
VFR conds will prevail through most of the evening hours...with mainly
middle level clouds increases from the west. Conds will gradually lower to MVFR
levels from the west later tonight as a storm system approaches the forecast area from the west.
Areas of rain will overspread the area...with isolated thunderstorms and rain possible
over parts of central and southern Arkansas. Confidence is not as high regarding
rain chances over northern Arkansas through the period. Occasional IFR conds will also be noted
over southern locations on Tuesday. Conds will slowly improve from the west starting
late in the period. /44/
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
Short term...tonight through Thursday night
clouds decreased this afternoon...with a breezy east/northeast wind.
As a storm system approaches from the Southern Plains later tonight
and Tuesday...clouds will build again with rain in the forecast.
Showers/isolated thunderstorms will overspread the region tonight...
with precipitation likely on Tuesday. Rain will linger into
Tuesday evening...and then the system will depart to the east.
Not looking for any severe weather this time. Rainfall will
average a half inch to an inch and a half in central/southern
sections of the state. Dry air will keep amounts under a quarter
of an inch across much of the north.
It looks dry Wednesday and Thursday...and this will continue
into the extended period.
Long term...Friday through Monday
Long term begins with high pressure centered over the state. Dry
weather is expected through the long term as an upper level ridge
builds into the region with temperatures warming to above normal
levels by the weekend. Clouds will increase towards the end of the
weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest.