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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1156 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

rain continues to stream across Texas and through the northwest two
thirds of Arkansas. The rain will continue through the period.
Expect ceilings and visibilities to drop late tonight and through
Saturday. Mainly MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected.

Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015/

Short term...tonight through Tuesday night

The main concern for the short term remains the prolonged rain
event currently underway. A nearly stationary cold front south of
St Louis down through north central Arkansas and finally back
towards Mena this afternoon before stretching down into eastern
Texas. The front will continue to slowly move southeast through
the forecast area...with the forward speed being slowed by waves
of low pressure riding northward along the boundary up through
Arkansas tonight and into Saturday. By Saturday evening the front
should be in southeast Arkansas...moving just southeast of the
state by late Sat night.

In the meantime...a mix of showers and stratiform rainfall will
continue across the forecast area...with rain becoming heavy at
times as the aforementioned waves of low pressure move north along
the boundary. The most widespread heavy rainfall is expected later
this evening and overnight as better forcing and higher
precipitable water values move into the state...but other stronger
periods of rainfall will likely occur sometime Saturday
afternoon/evening and then again Sunday morning. Storm total
rainfall amounts were adjusted downward slightly...but not enough
Worth going into detail about. Still expect to see storm total
amounts in the 5-7 inch range for areas generally south of the
I-40 corridor and west of a line from Little Rock to Arkadelphia.

It is Worth noting that with the lack of expected instability to
fuel stronger convection...rainfall rates are likely to remain
less than an inch per hour through a majority of this
event...which are not overly impressive in terms of typical flash
flooding cases. However...will leave the Flash Flood Watch as-is
for the time being. With as much rain is forecast...more and more
of the rain that falls will go towards runoff as time GOES by so
flash flooding could become an issue especially later on in the

The front will be south of the forecast area by late Saturday
night...yielding more showery type precipitation for Sunday and
Monday. Have this accounted for in the rainfall chances and
preciptation wording for sun and Monday. The upper low meandering
about the Great Basin and Four Corners region today and Sat will
begin to shift east towards the Front Range of The Rockies Sunday
night and then eject across the Central Plains Monday. Developing
low pressure over the High Plains will drag another cold front
across the forecast area Monday night...bringing an end to the
precipitation event. A transition to a dry northwesterly flow
pattern will take place during the day Tuesday...with cooler and
drier air filtering into the state.

Long term...Wednesday through Friday

With the exception of the GFS...long term models keep any shower
activity along the Gulf states while Arkansas sits dry under
northwest flow. Left small probability of precipitation in the southeast to address the
outlier. Either way cool air will be ushered in with afternoon highs
topping out in the 40s/50s across Arkansas on Wednesday...warming
back into the 50s statewide by Friday. Wednesday night will likley
be the coldest with lows falling into the 20s across the north to
middle/upper 30s across central/south Arkansas.

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Arkansas-
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