Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1213 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Update...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period...with mostly
clear sky conditions in place. Only item of interest will be wind
direction and speed during the day Monday...as southern and
central Arkansas taf sites may see some wind gusts at or above 15kts.
Otherwise winds will slowly move to NE before going calm after ooz
Monday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 211 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/



Short term...tonight through Wednesday night

The much talked about cold front has arrived and will be moving
into central Arkansas by 5 PM or so. Modest convective activity
was seen in the vicinity of the front as it moved through Missouri
overnight but high resolution guidance was correct in showing that
convection waning during the morning and early afternoon hours in
Arkansas. Now that peak heating is upon US however...with many
areas in the southern half of Arkansas over 90 degrees as of 2 PM...the
lift from the front should be enough to spark off scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours. This is
supported by recent radar trends showing more vigorous showers
beginning to pop up. The front will shift south of the state by
midnight tonight...taking with it any chance of rain through the
remainder of the short term period.

Dewpoints in northern Arkansas this afternoon had already fallen
into the middle 50s. This air mass will filter into the remainder of
Arkansas tonight and on Monday. Temperatures will respond
accordingly. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s up north to low
60s in the south...but will be firmly in the low 50s Monday night
with at least a good chance that sheltered locations could fall
into the 40s. After cooler starts to the day...Monday and Tuesday
will see highs top out only in the 70s. Weak upper level high
pressure will build overhead Tuesday into Wednesday keeping skies
clear and winds light. As such Tuesday night should be as cool as
Monday night but with little cloud cover and less influence of the
Continental air mass currently moving into the region...Wednesday
afternoon will see temperatures rise back into the low 80s.

Long term...Thursday through Sunday

Little change in the extended forecast. Overall a dry and cool
forecast is expected. Surface and upper high pressure will be
centered to the northeast of the region...while their influence will
still dominate the weather pattern for Arkansas. An east to gradual
east to southeast flow will be over Arkansas...but even into the weekend...
any return moisture will be very limited. Models are still
indicating a possible upper low pressure trough and system to make
it to the Central Plains middle week...but with the strong high
pressure ridge over the eastern u... progress will be slowed
and its influence will be limited for Arkansas. Over the
weekend...some low chances of convection may be seen over the Gulf
Coast states...with some possible influence into far southern Arkansas.
Uncertainty does exist with this feature and only slight chance of
rain is indicated in the forecast. Otherwise temperatures will be start
cooler than normal...then somme moderation late week and into the
weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 77 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 80 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 74 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 78 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 79 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 80 55 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 78 53 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 76 52 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 75 51 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 78 54 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 78 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 77 53 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 76 53 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...226

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations