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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
544 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015

Aviation...
cloudy skies will continue across the area today. Ceilings will
lower this afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach from
the northwest tonight and rain chances will increase mainly late
in the period. VFR ceilings are expected for much of the period
and MVFR likely towards the end of the period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 519 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

Short term...today through Tuesday night
unsettled weather will be the main headline to begin the near
term. Low pressure will form over Kansas tonight and will track
through Missouri into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. The system will
drag a cold front into Arkansas...with widespread rain surrounding
the front.

There will be chances for rain as soon as this afternoon in the
far western counties. Rain will become widespread after dark and
will continue Sunday morning before tapering off in the afternoon.
At that time...the region will get dry slotted from the west...
and this will cut off all precipitation by evening.

Heavy/excessive rain is not expected during this event. Most
areas should get quarter to three quarter inch amounts...with
isolated totals over an inch.

Canadian high pressure will follow the front along with breezy
northwest winds. After above normal temperatures Sunday...readings
will go below normal on Monday. Clouds will also decrease with
dry conditions returning.

It will remain dry on Tuesday...with temperatures a little closer
to seasonal. A new cold front will be on the horizon to the
north...with a storm system ready to form in the western Gulf of
Mexico.

It appears that much of the moisture surrounding the Gulf system
will build toward the southeast United States and away from
Arkansas. Even so...there will be be chances for rain as the
extended period begins...and maybe a chance of something else
when the front to the north gets here.

Long term...Wednesday through Friday
zonal flow will be over Arkansas to begin the long term period with
an upper low situated in south Texas. This upper low will track
south of Arkansas Wednesday night...and an upper trough will move
through Arkansas northwest to southeast Thursday. By Thursday
night...northwest flow aloft returns to the state.

Departing surface high pressure Wednesday will allow moisture to
return to Arkansas. Rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday
and Wednesday night. The surface low moves east to the Florida
Panhandle Thursday morning but then a cold front moves through
Arkansas from north to south...continuing rain chances. There is
also a chance of some light snow in north and parts of central
sections Wednesday night into Thursday. Very dry air moves into the
area Friday. Temperatures through this period will be below normal
and temperatures Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 52 42 51 25 / 10 80 100 10
Camden Arkansas 55 48 59 30 / 10 80 100 10
Harrison Arkansas 51 41 46 20 / 20 100 80 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 54 46 55 28 / 20 90 90 10
Little Rock Arkansas 54 45 55 28 / 10 80 100 10
Monticello Arkansas 56 49 60 31 / 10 70 100 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 54 46 53 26 / 20 100 90 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 51 41 47 22 / 20 100 80 10
Newport Arkansas 52 43 53 27 / 10 80 100 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 55 47 58 29 / 10 80 100 20
Russellville Arkansas 53 43 51 24 / 20 100 80 10
Searcy Arkansas 53 44 54 27 / 10 80 100 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 54 45 57 29 / 10 80 100 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...51

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