Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1235 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation...
high pressure continues over the area. Winds are from the
northeast and east with very few clouds over the area. Winds will
be gusty at times this afternoon then decrease after sunset.
Cirrus will increase over the area late tonight and Saturday
morning. VFR conditioins will prevail.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 637 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Discussion...
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.
Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be
easterly around 10-12 knots at all sites...with some gusts into the
middle teens during the late morning and afternoon hours. While the
atmosphere is capped...there should be enough solar heating to
develop some sparse afternoon cumulus today so have few040 mentioned at
all sites. Some bkn040 ceilings may exist from just west of
kllq...northwest through khot and towards kfsm this afternoon.
This would be in a region of highest moisture convergence just
northeast of a stalled frontal boundary across NE Texas and northern
Louisiana. Some convection will fire along that boundary today but
expect only cirrus blow off from it across Arkansas.
Previous discussion... /issued 309 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Short term...today through Monday
Dry conditions seen across the state this morning as winds from the
NE usher in dry air behind a cold front. Skies were partly to mostly
cloudy as high clouds from the west moved over Arkansas. Expect dry
conditions to persist through this Friday as drier and cooler air moves
into the state. Some locations across the far west and SW could see
some isolated convection...but keep below mention probability of precipitation for now as
potential seems too low at this time. Temperatures will be below normal for
highs...with temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
After a cool morning on Sat...with morning lows in the upper 40s to
upper 50s...moisture levels will begin returning across the west as
surface high pressure shifts east...and upper level ridge axis begins
shifting east as well. Most locations should remain dry however...but
do mention probability of precipitation across the far west and northwest as there will be higher
moisture levels in that portion of Arkansas. Better probability of precipitation will be seen on
Sat night and especially on sun as a weak upper disturbance rotates
around the top of the ridge in place...mainly over northwestern Arkansas. Best
probability of precipitation will be across the northwestern and northern counties for sun.
Upper ridge will remain in place through the end of the
forecast...with most locations remaining dry for Monday.
However...could seen some diurnally driven convection during the
heating of the afternoon hours. Will keep probability of precipitation below mention at this
time however.
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
No notable changes made to the long term forecast tonight. Models
are generally in good agreement through the period...showing a ridge
up upper level high pressure situated over the southeastern
Continental U.S...and an upper trough or closed low digging out a home across
the Desert Southwest. As such...the forecast area should be mostly
dry. However with persistent and somewhat deep southerly flow an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm will certainly be possible
each day. Did not put mention of precipitation in the forecast though as
any convection should be isolated enough in nature not to warrant
broad-brushed slight chance probability of precipitation.
Otherwise...the only tweaks made to the forecast would be minor
temperature adjustments to align with latest guidance and also to
adjust cloud cover forecasts to a more diurnally favored trend.
Morning cloudiness should be fairly prevalent each day...especially
in the west...but this should give way to afternoon cumulus and then
clearing skies in the evening with loss of daytime heating.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 50 78 60 81 / 0 10 20 30
Camden Arkansas 57 84 64 84 / 10 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 51 79 60 80 / 0 20 20 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 56 83 64 83 / 0 10 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 53 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 55 83 64 84 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 55 81 63 81 / 10 20 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 50 79 59 81 / 0 10 20 40
Newport Arkansas 51 78 60 82 / 0 10 10 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 54 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 54 81 62 82 / 0 10 20 30
Searcy Arkansas 51 79 60 82 / 0 10 10 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 53 80 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
