Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
848 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014
latest model/surface analysis places the cold frontal boundary
that moved through the state now well south and east of the
region. Upper level trough associated with the departing storm
system now moving through and shows up quite clearly on moisture
channel imagery at this time. Water vapor also shows what appears
to be a weak low developing along the Red River.
Precipitation continues to slowly decrease in both coverage and
intensity but areas of light snow/flurries continue over the
northern half of the state with a few rain showers over the
south. As cold air continues to filter south...there will be a
chance of seeing a few flakes just about everywhere over the next
few hours until the precipitation ends. Several inches of snow did
accumulate across the north and even a few flakes have been
observed as far south as Little Rock. Please refer to the local
storm report product for specifics.
Winds have decreased to below wind criteria and has been canceled
a few hours early. All updates have been sent.
Previous discussion... /issued 651 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
Snow continues to fall across north Arkansas this evening with
light rain in the central part of the state. Precipitation will
continue through this evening...and should end lastly at llq late
tonight. Clouds will decrease on Monday. MVFR and LIFR conditons
will become VFR late tonight and Monday morning. Strong gusty
north winds will diminish late tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
Short term...tonight through Wednesday
Snow will continue to fall across parts of northwest Arkansas late
this afternoon into early this evening...with total accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches still expected. While most of the snow will only
accumulate on grassy areas...some area roads will become slick.
Meanwhile...a cold front was pushing south of The Little Rock
metropolitan area and generating light rain as it passed. Temperatures will
continue to fall quickly in its wake.
The upper level system that brought the heavy rain and snow to the
state to much of northwestern Arkansas will continue to pull away from
the state overnight. Light precipitation be noted across the eastern
half of the area...however amounts will be much lighter than
earlier today. Some snow will fall over the north...with some wet
flakes or even some sleet mixing in across the central and
southern Arkansas late this evening and overnight. However...only
slight snow accumulations...around a tenth of an inch or
less....are expected across the northern two rows of
counties...with no accumulations elsewhere. All precipitation
should come to an end before daybreak on Monday.
The aforementioned cold front will exit the state tonight...with
dry cold air following behind it. Temperatures will fall into the
upper teens north to lower 30s south by Monday morning. Winds will
still be elevated through tonight and winds chill values will be in
the single digits north to lower 20s south. Highs on Monday will
be below normal.
After this active period...quiet weather is expected as high
pressure at the surface and near zonal upper level flow comes into
play. The high pressure will move to the east early on
Tuesday...with south winds and warmer air returning. Another storm
system will move across the northern plains and drag a cold front
through the state Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture return
appears limited and have left precipitation chances out for now.
Long term...Thursday through Sunday
High pressure will be over Arkansas to begin the extended period. It
will be tranquil Thursday...with breezy southerly winds by
afternoon. This will be ahead of the next cold front which is
scheduled to arrive on Friday.
The front will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms...especially Friday afternoon and evening. The front
may eventually stall along the Gulf Coast...with continued small
chances for showers in southern/western Arkansas Saturday and Sunday.
Above normal temperatures are in the forecast Thursday and Friday.
Readings will be closer to normal behind the front next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 24 50 33 66 / 40 10 0 0
Camden Arkansas 32 55 38 72 / 30 10 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 18 47 34 64 / 20 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 29 55 37 69 / 30 10 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 29 53 36 69 / 40 10 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 32 52 37 69 / 30 10 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 28 55 36 69 / 20 10 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 20 46 33 65 / 30 10 0 0
Newport Arkansas 26 49 33 65 / 40 10 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 30 52 36 69 / 30 10 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 27 55 34 69 / 30 10 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 28 51 33 67 / 40 10 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 29 51 35 67 / 40 10 0 0