Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...update aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
635 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
Overall VFR ceilings will be seen this morning...with only patchy
MVFR stratus clouds with some fog early this morning...especially
over central areas. Isolated showers will be seen initially over
northern Arkansas and used vcsh...then scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday. Only isolated showers
will be seen central and southern this morning. Winds will be southeast to
SW at 5 to 10 miles per hour...becoming S to SW at 5 to 15 miles per hour with higher
gusts possible. The area of convection will sag into northern Arkansas
today with showers and thunderstorms with areas of MVFR. The
convection will take longer to reach central areas later in the day.
Previous discussion... /issued 225 am CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/
Short term...today through Friday
A cold front is dropping south towards the state early this
morning...currently located from southeastern Kansas into central MO. The
convective activity ahead of this front has dissipated over
time...but some isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain was developing
further south of the front across portions of northwestern Arkansas.
This front will continue dropping south towards the state this
morning...eventually stalling near the MO/Arkansas border this evening.
Flow aloft will be nearly parallel to this front by this time...and
several rounds of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain could be seen along and ahead of this
front through tonight. The bulk of the precipitation will remain just northwest of
the County Warning Area. However...with the front dropping a bit further southeast then
earlier thought...and with the help of outflow boundaries dropping
even further southeast...think enough convection will be seen in the northwestern
counties to warrant posting a small Flash Flood Watch. Have also
increased probability of precipitation further southeast...but the threat for widespread heavy
rainfall will be more limited.
While highest quantitative precipitation forecast values will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches from
Newton to Baxter counties and higher amounts northwest...some of these
areas have seen flash flooding in recent days. As a result...it may
not take as much heavy rainfall to generate some flash
flooding...especially given the terrain. As always...locally higher
amounts could be seen.
Chances for precipitation will remain high through Wednesday...mainly across the
northern counties. By Thursday...chances will begin decreasing from south to
north as the stalled front lifts north...and srly flow increases. An
upper level ridge will also expand over the the region late in the
period...with highs back into the 90s for most locations. Humidity
levels will also be high...and peak heat index values will increase
to around 100 by the end of the short term period.
Long term...Saturday through Monday
Models are in good agreement with an overall dry and warm to hot
and humid weather pattern Saturday through Monday. The upper high
pressure ridge will be dominate over the region...with very low
chances of rain...and temperatures warming to above normal values.
Only an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during the heat of
the day to early evening...but chance will be very low and will not
be included in forecast. Late in the weekend and into next week...
the upper high pressure gradually drifts west...and an upper northwest flow
returns to the central region. On Tuesday to Tuesday night...models
do show short wave energy and a possible frontal system sagging southeast
to southern MO to near northern Arkansas...and forecast does have a slight
to low chance of convection over northern Arkansas. Otherwise...
temperatures will start at normal values then warm to above normal
values through the weekend and into early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 88 73 87 74 / 50 50 30 20
Camden Arkansas 92 76 93 74 / 10 20 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 79 69 81 69 / 70 70 50 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 89 75 89 74 / 30 40 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 91 75 90 74 / 20 40 20 20
Monticello Arkansas 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 88 74 87 73 / 40 50 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 81 69 83 71 / 70 60 50 30
Newport Arkansas 89 73 88 73 / 40 40 30 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 91 75 91 74 / 10 20 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 88 73 87 72 / 50 60 30 20
Searcy Arkansas 89 73 89 73 / 30 40 20 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 90 73 90 72 / 20 30 10 20
Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
evening for Baxter-Boone-Marion-Newton-Searcy.
Short term...62 / long term...59