Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
517 am CST sun Mar 1 2015
low ceilings and precipitation will continue through the period.
Precipitation will taper off across the north during the day as
drier air tries to work its way in. Over the central and south...
precipitation will continue. Freezing rain will continue in the north for
the next few hours but will change to rain as temperatures rise
above freezing. On the whole...IFR ceilings and MVFR visbys will
prevail. Tafs out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CST sun Mar 1 2015/
Short term...today through Wednesday
Very active short term begins with rain and freezing rain currently
ongoing across much of the natural state. Have seen temperatures
remain stationary...if not warm within the past few hours...which
has minimized impacts across central Arkansas. Temperatures will
continue to warm through the morning hours with precipitation
tapering off across the northwest. Will allow the Winter Weather Advisory
to expire at 12z across portions of central and western
Arkansas...however did continue the advisory across northern
Arkansas through 15z...with temperatures being a bit slower to get
With the front stalled across southern Arkansas Sunday and into
Monday...best chances for precipitation will continue across
southern Arkansas...with northern Arkansas seeing very little
precipitation. If northern Arkansas does see any precipitation
Sunday evening...it appears freezing rain will be the primary precipitation
type with plenty of cold air in place. All that said...do not think
the north will see precipitation...but this will need to be
monitored on the day shift.
Monday night...front will lift north through the state as a warm
front and lead to quite a bit of warming across the County Warning Area into
Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will warm into the 60s and
lower 70s across most of the state. Thunderstorms will also return
to the forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night as a strong cold
front sweeps through the state by Wednesday morning. Models disagree
on how much moisture will be in place behind the front...with the
European model (ecmwf) the wettest solution. Tended to lean towards the the NAM and
GFS on Post frontal precipitation amounts.
With significantly colder air expected behind the front on
Wednesday...wintry precipitation can be expected to start during the
early morning hours on Wednesday. Across portions of central and
southern Arkansas...precipitation will be mostly in the form of
snow. Across northern Arkansas...as the precipitation changes
over...do expect a brief period of mostly sleet...before
transitioning to snow. Precipitation will be all snow across the
state by the end of the short term.
Long term...Wednesday night through Saturday
To echo the comments of the day shift yesterday...the extended
period will be anything but Spring-like. At the beginning of the
period...the cold front will be south of the region. Wintry
precipitation should be fairly widespread initially on Wednesday
night...and should diminish early Thursday morning...as drier air
and cold high pressure work into the state.
Highs Thursday will largely stay in the 30s. Below average temperatures
will continue through the period...with readings gradually modifying
into the weekend as the high shifts eastward. At this time...no
additional precipitation is expected.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Baxter-
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST early this morning for