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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
644 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Aviation...
a short wave will bring increasing rain chances to the area today.
Chances become likely tonight and Thursday. Heavy rain will be
possible at times. Ceilings will slowly lower late tonight and
Thursday morning. Much of the period will be VFR conditions but
will be MVFR at times.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/

Short term...today through Saturday night
at the surface this morning...a frontal boundary remains stalled
near the western Gulf Coast region. Surface low pressure was
developing near the Panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma. In the
upper levels...a trough near The Rockies was pushing southeastward
into the Southern Plains.

Northwest flow associated with the trough will push the surface
system southeast. Uplift to the north of the system will send
middle-level moisture into the region...with showers/storms developing
later today into tonight. Several upper level impulses will move
through and interact with the surface system...keeping showers/
storms likely through at least middle-day Thursday.

Model data is agreeing on an axis of heaviest rainfall over the
Ouachita Mountains...and with this area already seeing an abundance
of rainfall this month...have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch
beginning this evening and lasting through middle-day Thursday. Rainfall
totals of one to three inches are possible.

Rain chances will diminish on Thursday afternoon...as the principle
upper support translates eastward and out of the region. However...
there will be a lingering slight chance of showers/storms through
Friday in the south...closest to the remnant surface system.

Surface high pressure will move into the region for the weekend...
with clouds decreasing and temperatures warming. However...readings
will still be below seasonal averages. In fact...highs on Thursday
will likely not get out of the 70s...and may end up setting some
coldest high temperature records. Also...temperatures will be close
to daily record lows Friday morning.

Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
high pressure aloft will be centered over The Four Corners area to
begin the long term period with an upper trough over the Great Lakes
region. This pattern with northwest flow over Arkansas will continue
through the end of the period.

No significant impulses move through Arkansas during the extended.
Will keep the extended forecast dry. A slow warm up is expected
through the period. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 80 63 75 60 / 40 40 40 10
Camden Arkansas 83 67 76 64 / 30 60 70 30
Harrison Arkansas 75 61 74 58 / 60 40 40 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 79 66 73 59 / 60 80 70 20
Little Rock Arkansas 80 65 74 62 / 60 70 70 20
Monticello Arkansas 84 62 76 62 / 30 50 70 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 78 64 72 59 / 60 80 70 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 77 62 75 60 / 50 40 40 10
Newport Arkansas 80 63 75 60 / 30 40 40 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 81 65 74 63 / 40 70 70 20
Russellville Arkansas 78 66 74 60 / 60 70 60 20
Searcy Arkansas 81 64 76 61 / 50 50 50 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 81 65 76 63 / 40 60 70 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
Logan-Montgomery-Pike-Polk-Scott-Yell.

&&

$$



Aviation...51

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