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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
221 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Short term...tonight through Monday night
okay...you know the drill. Hot and humid through the short term.

Upper ridge will remain the dominant feature. Save an isolated
shower/storm here or there...there will be little chance of
rainfall. Southerly winds will keep conditions rather humid...
with afternoon heat index values ranging from 100 to 105 through
Monday.

Will...for now...reissue the Special Weather Statement concerning
high heat index values. We will have to continue to watch Sunday
and Monday...as a heat advisory may become necessary.
&&

Long term...Tuesday through Friday
longer range model data still in decent agreement today regarding
forecast trends next week. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to indicate a gradual
weakening of the upper ridge across the middle south. However...the GFS remains
faster than the Euro solution. Prefer to continue to follow closer to
the slower solution which seems more reasonable and remains consistent
with current forecast. The European model (ecmwf) does not indicate a frontal boundary moving into
the forecast area late next week.

The models also continue to indicate that Gulf moisture will begin to increases
early in the period as a weak easterly WV moves along the Gulf Coast.
This will result in more cloud cover and small chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain for
Tuesday and Wednesday...especially across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Expect the bulk of
the rainfall will be diurnal in nature and have trended probability of precipitation in that
direction.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 76 98 72 101 / 0 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 71 96 71 97 / 0 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 72 97 69 97 / 0 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 74 97 73 96 / 0 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 75 98 73 97 / 0 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 73 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 70 96 70 96 / 0 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 73 98 70 98 / 0 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 75 97 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 72 96 72 96 / 0 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 72 98 69 97 / 0 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 73 96 72 99 / 0 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 73 95 73 96 / 0 10 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...57 / long term...44

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