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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
525 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015

Aviation...
rain will continue to develop and affect much of the area through
the period. Visbys should gradually improve late this morning
before deteriorating again late tonight. IFR and LIFR ceilings
will be prevalent. Winds should be out of the northeast at around
8-10 knots...becoming light and variable tonight. Tafs already
out.
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 423 am CST Monday Mar 2 2015/

Short term...today through Wednesday

Light showers have been ongoing across southern Arkansas during the
overnight hours and will continue to spread north through the
morning hours. WRF and hrrr agree with precipitation increasing in area
through 18z across much of southern and southeast Arkansas.
Precipitation across the northern half of the state should be
minimal if anything at all. However...if any precipitation does fall
temperature profile would support freezing rain. Went with low probability of precipitation
and no ice accumulations across north central Arkansas...with no
probability of precipitation across the northern two rows of counties. By Monday
afternoon...precipitation chances will be small. As a result went
with only slight chance probability of precipitation through 12z Tuesday.

By 12z Tuesday...warm front will have lifted north through Arkansas
and brought a return of moist southerly flow. With the increase in
moisture...probability of precipitation also begin to increase. Tuesday will be the warmest
day of the week...however models agree that temperatures may not be
as warm as previously advertised. Did trend maximum temperatures down a couple
of degrees on Tuesday...as a result it does not appear anywhere in
the state will top 70 degrees.

Strong cold front will enter northwest Arkansas before 6z Wednesday...with
winter weather returning to the forecast by 12z Wednesday.
Confidence is increasing that hazardous winter weather will be
likely Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. As a result...a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued with significant snowfall
expected.

The main issue with and most difficult part of the forecast will be
the initial transition to wintry precipitation across the north with
models struggling to get a handle on how much warm air there will be
aloft. European model (ecmwf) and NAM have a larger warm nose when compared to the
GFS. For this forecast did trend the frontal timing...and surface
temperature curve with the European model (ecmwf)...as well as temperatures aloft.

Looking at snowfall totals...there is some concern when looking at
both GFS and sref ensemble snowfall total plumes. The means line up
well with the current forecast...however there is decent grouping
with some of the solutions that are well above the mean. Needless to
say...this is something that will need to continue to be watched in
the coming forecasts.

Long term...Wednesday night through Sunday

Frontal boundary should be well to the south of the region at the
start of the period. Precipitation will gradually wind down during
the overnight hours...and should largely be clear of the region by
12z Thursday. There might be brief light snow in the far southeast
Thursday morning.

Cold temperatures will continue on Thursday. Models continue to be
in frighteningly good agreement on this. Most areas will only reach
the 30s...and it is quite likely that areas with the thickest snow
pack will stay below freezing. The coldest period will be Thursday
night/early Friday morning...with all locations in the teens. There
may even be a few places in the single digits. It is also quite
likely that Friday morning...we will be staring down The Barrel of
daily record lows in a few places.

The airmass will moderate on Friday and into the weekend...as winds
take on more of a southerly component and the high shifts eastward.
However...readings will remain well below seasonal averages through
the remainder of the period.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 40 34 55 35 / 20 30 70 70
Camden Arkansas 41 37 65 51 / 50 30 50 80
Harrison Arkansas 40 34 56 27 / 10 30 60 50
Hot Springs Arkansas 40 37 59 43 / 50 30 60 70
Little Rock Arkansas 39 35 59 42 / 40 30 60 80
Monticello Arkansas 43 40 65 53 / 50 40 50 80
Mount Ida Arkansas 39 37 58 41 / 50 30 70 70
Mountain Home Arkansas 40 33 55 30 / 10 30 60 50
Newport Arkansas 41 36 56 36 / 20 30 70 70
Pine Bluff Arkansas 39 37 62 46 / 50 30 60 80
Russellville Arkansas 41 35 56 39 / 30 30 70 60
Searcy Arkansas 38 35 57 39 / 30 30 70 80
Stuttgart Arkansas 39 36 59 42 / 50 30 60 80
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night for Baxter-Boone-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Marion-
Newton-Searcy-sharp-stone.



Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
Wednesday night for Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Garland-Johnson-
Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Perry-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.

Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday
night for Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Grant-Hot Spring-Jefferson-Lincoln-Ouachita-Pike.
&&

$$

Aviation...57

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