Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
516 PM CST Friday Nov 21 2014
light rain/drizzle and fog will continue in most areas through the
overnight hours...keeping conditions at or below IFR. Conditions
will gradually improve on Saturday morning...but with showers in
the vicinity in most places through the day. Low level wind shear
will be present in most areas at around fl020. Tafs out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CST Friday Nov 21 2014/
Short term...tonight through Monday night
Warm fnt was situated across southern Arkansas at middle afternoon where temperatures were in
the middle and upper 50s. Winds had already veered to the southeast across the
northwestern parts of the state as well. Scattered rain showers continued to lift northward across
the region during the day...with areas of fog noted to the north of the
The aforementioned warm fnt will continue to lift northward through the rest of the
forecast area tonight in response to low pressure shifting to the NE across the plains
states. Tricky part of the forecast tonight will be temperature trends. Most
locations will likely see the Mercury hold steady early tonight until the
boundary lifts north of a given location. Readings cloud fall a few degrees
over northern Arkansas where some drier low level air remains. Continued with chance probability of precipitation
tonight...with areas of fog included. Will continue to monitor visibilities for the
possibility of an advisory overnight.
Best rain chances on Sat will be across western Arkansas and points westward as a new upper
level storm system begins to work eastward into the plains states. Rain and a
few thunderstorms will become more widespread Sat night and sun as the upper
level system moves into the region. Still appears that the chances of any
severe weather will stay to the S of Arkansas closer to the Gulf Coast region. A
general one half to one inch of rain can be expected over the forecast area...
with locally higher amts across southern Arkansas.
Rain chance will then diminish heading into Sun night as the associated surface low
heads towards the Great Lakes region. Drier and cooler conds will
return for Monday.
Long term...Tuesday through Friday
Dry conditions are expected during this period. A number of explicit
solutions from medium range models suggest another Arctic front to
push into the U.S. At this time...it appears that the brunt of the
cold air will affect areas to the east of the middle south.