Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
322 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Short term...today through Thursday night
fairly benign weather conditions are expected across the forecast
area this period in spite of a relatively progressive upper flow.
With short term models in basic agreement...a blend of forecast
solutions will be used.
Patchy fog has developed over much of the forecast area but is
expected to burn off fairly quickly this morning. Otherwise skies
are mainly clear with comfortably cool temperatures prevailing. High
pressure sliding to the south of the state will provide the area
with southerly winds and help pull temperatures back into the 70s.
Some increase in cloud cover will be possible over the south as a
southern stream system...over western old Mexico this morning makes
its trek towards the east. GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep moisture out of the state
but NAM does brush the south with some light precipitation and
slight chance probability of precipitation will added to this area. Another mild day is
expected on Tuesday.
A cold front dropping down from the northwest will be moving through
the state at roughly the same time the wave is passing to the south.
Front will move through Tuesday night and the biggest impact from
this boundary will be a wind shift and cooler air returning for
Wednesday and Thursday. Front does not have a lot of moisture to
work with but a few showers over the north/northeast cannot be
excluded. High pressure returns to round out the period.
After two days of temperatures above normal...the second half of the
period will feature readings below normal but not terribly so. The
mav/mex numbers look good reasonable and are generally accepted.
Long term...Friday through Sunday...
an upper trough will be over The Rockies to begin the period. This
upper trough will move east through Arkansas Friday night. Another
upper trough will move into The Rockies Saturday night and move to
Arkansas by Monday. A closed low is expected to develop in Texas and
move along the Gulf Coast.
Surface high pressure will be along the East Coast Friday and
providing a warm south wind into Arkansas. This will keep
temperatures in the 60s Friday and Saturday. A cold front in the
plains dives southward Saturday. Rain chances will develop Friday
night ahead of the front and increase early Saturday. Expect a bit
of a break in the precipitation Saturday night and Sunday morning
but probability of precipitation will increase on Sunday again as the front stalls over
north Arkansas and low pressure moves across the state. Cooler
temperatures are expected in the north Sunday behind the front but
60s should continue across the rest of the area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 72 47 75 43 / 0 10 10 30
Camden Arkansas 72 52 77 50 / 0 10 20 20
Harrison Arkansas 73 48 76 38 / 0 10 10 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 72 50 77 47 / 0 10 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 72 49 75 48 / 0 10 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 73 52 77 51 / 0 10 20 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 72 50 76 45 / 0 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 72 47 76 39 / 0 10 10 30
Newport Arkansas 71 47 74 45 / 0 10 10 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 72 51 76 50 / 0 10 20 20
Russellville Arkansas 73 49 76 42 / 0 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 72 48 73 46 / 0 10 10 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 72 50 74 49 / 0 10 20 20
Short term...56 / long term...51