Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
550 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013
Aviation...11/12z taf cycle
Areas of br/fzfg will affect locations for a few hours early this
morning...primarily in the vicinity of the larger lakes and along the
Arkansas River valley...with mainly MVFR conds expected. Brief periods of
IFR/LIFR will be possible at times. A cold front will drop southward through the
forecast area later this morning and early this afternoon...with winds shifting to
the north/northwest around 10kts. Otherwise...VFR conds will prevail. /44/
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CST Wednesday Dec 11 2013/
Short term...today through Saturday night
An area of low pressure will be over Southern California to begin
the period with zonal flow over the middle south. This low will
slowly move east Thursday and into the plains Friday. Southwest
flow will return to the middle south. A second trough will move
through Arkansas late Saturday and northwest flow will return.
High pressure will be over Arkansas today. An inversion near the
surface will trap moisture near the ground and fog can be expected
in parts of west and central Arkansas. With temperatures below
freezing...a freezing fog advisory has been issued through 10 am.
Some of the fog is dense...but visibilities will improve through
the morning...though it will take some time to climb above
A dry cold front will move through Arkansas today and bring drier
air to the region. This will allow for colder temperatures tonight
in the teens and 20s. Surface high pressure will be over Arkansas
Thursday but quickly move off to the east. Moisture will begin to
return Thursday night. A short wave will bring rain chances to the
area Friday and continue through Saturday. At this time...it
appears the rain will fall with temperatures above freezing and
will be all liquid. A surface low will bring a cold front through
the area Saturday and move the precipitation off to the east.
Below normal temperatures are expected through the short term
Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
High pressure will be settling into the region on sun behind a departing
storm system. Heading into early next week...a weak storm system will pass
to the NE of Arkansas. Expect just an increases on clouds with these feature...
along with the passage of a weak cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate
early next week as southwesterly winds increases ahead of approaching fnt. In fact...
most locations will see temperatures return back to seasonal norms by Tuesday.
freezing fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for Conway-