Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
558 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
VFR conditions expected through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
Short term...tonight through Friday night
Despite seeing a similar day to yesterday in Arkansas...have yet to
see any thunderstorms fire in the heat of day today and if any were
to form...the most likely location would be to the north and east of
the County Warning Area.
A cold front is forecast to approach the day on Wednesday...yet not
before another hot day is seen across the natural state. Once again
expanded the heat advisory for many of the same locations it was out
today...and upgraded the eastern third of the County Warning Area to an excessive
heat warning with heat indices likely to top 110 degrees.
The upper level ridge will depart to the west and allow the cold
front to make it through the state. Very little lift will be seen
with the front and little to no precipitation is expected. The best
chances for rain with the passage of this front will be across
southern Arkansas. However there is some disagreement with the
models...with the European model (ecmwf) the wettest of the solutions.
What will be seen behind the front is noticeably drier dewpoints.
For Thursday and Friday...portions of northern Arkansas may remain
in the 80s with dewponits in the 60s.
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
Explicit solutions from various medium range models continue to
suggest some amplification of upper level flow will occur across
North America during this time frame. An upper ridge will be
aligned along The Rockies...with some deepening a trough over the
Hudson Bay and Great Lakes region. Overall...low level patterns
will promote dry conditions. A warming trend is expected...but
boundary layer moisture will be well lower than recent days.
excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Arkansas-
Heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Arkansas-Desha-
Heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-
Heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Fulton-Izard-stone.