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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1222 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

cold front will affect the forecast area during the second half of
the period...from north to south sections. Main effect will change
surface flow to northerly at 5-7 kts.



Previous discussion... /issued 618 am CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/


Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion below...


Some patchy fog ongoing at the northern terminals this morning...which
should dissipate later this morning. Otherwise...expect VFR
conditions through the rest of the forecast. A cold front will
drop south into the state by Friday morning...with a wind shift at
the northern terminals before the end of this taf period.

Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/

Short through Sunday night

Upper ridge was situated just to the east of Arkansas early this morning. Middle and
high level clouds continued to stream northeastward across the region...associated with
an upper low spinning over northern old Mexico. Meanwhile...a weak ridge of
surface high pressure was centered over southeastern MO. Predawn temperatures were mainly in
the 60s.

Models remain in decent agreement this morning with overall forecast trends
through much of the period. Expect another partly to mostly sunny day today
with summerlike highs generally in the 80s to around 90 degrees.

Meanwhile...the aforementioned upper low is forecast to retrograde westward the
next few days. This will allow an upper level trough/ cold front to drop southeastward
through the region Friday/Friday night. Scattered showers and a few storms will
accompany the frontal passage...but no severe weather is expected.

Rain chances will diminish from the northwest late Friday and Friday night as the cold front
shifts southeast of Arkansas and high pressure begins to build into the area. Temperatures will
return to near normal levels for the first half of the weekend. By
sun...the high will quickly shift eastward and southerly winds will return to the
middle south...along with warmer temperatures. Another fast moving cold front will
affect Arkansas early next week.

Long term...Monday through Wednesday

A cold front will be pushing southeast through the state on Monday...and with
moisture levels ahead of this front remaining low...expect precipitation
chances to also remain limited. Will continue with silent probability of precipitation with
this frontal passage as a result. As with recent dry cold fronts...expect very
dry air to filter into the state behind the front. Dewpoints will
likely drop well into the 40s and even 30s...especially in the
afternoon hours when mixing is maximized. As a lean more
towards the GFS in terms of moisture levels Post frontal...which
have done a better job in recent weeks with low level moisture
behind the dry cold fronts with lack of any significant rainfall in

Temperatures will start off well above normal for Monday ahead of the front.
However...temperatures later in the long term will drop to near or possibly
just above normal for afternoon highs. Lows will also start off
above normal on Monday morning...then near normal later in the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 86 63 76 52 / 0 10 50 10
Camden Arkansas 90 64 88 60 / 0 10 30 20
Harrison Arkansas 83 60 71 49 / 10 20 40 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 87 65 85 57 / 0 10 40 10
Little Rock Arkansas 89 66 85 57 / 0 10 40 20
Monticello Arkansas 91 66 89 59 / 0 10 30 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 87 62 83 54 / 0 10 40 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 85 61 72 49 / 0 20 40 10
Newport Arkansas 87 63 78 52 / 0 10 50 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 89 64 86 58 / 0 10 40 20
Russellville Arkansas 87 63 82 53 / 0 10 40 10
Searcy Arkansas 88 64 83 53 / 0 10 50 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 89 64 85 56 / 0 10 40 20

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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