Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
237 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
Main concerns this forecast cycle are any chances of convection
through the period...although an absence of any significant
synoptic system. Otherwise temperatures warming as the upper ridge
builds into the plains.
Afternoon convection has been confined to NE to east central Arkansas
and is not expected to expand much...except possibly a bit north
to where weak boundary is. Convection will hold together in the
heat of the day...then fade after sunset. Will keep a slight
chance of convection this early evening over these parts of Arkansas
due to weak lift and out flow boundaries. Surface analysis has
the stalled front over northern la...with another weak boundary
near the Arkansas and MO Tennessee state lines. A bit lower dew point temperatures
behind the boundary...while over much of Arkansas...dew point temperatures were
in the middle and upper 60s. Still expect overall rain amounts and
coverage to be low. The upper northwest flow has also brought a bit of
short wave energy to northern Arkansas this afternoon.
&&
Short term...tonight through Saturday night
Will keep the slight chance of convection in the early evening
period for north to north central Arkansas...ending after sunset. Did add some
patchy fog in the valley areas of west to north west Arkansas per trends
this morning and expect similar conditions tonight. On Thursday
the slight chance of convection will be mainly over west to north
Arkansas as models show some short wave energy to move over the area
through the day...mainly afternoon. Also may see isolated
convection east OK to NE Texas to northwest la with the weak boundary
lifting a bit north on Thursday. Again overall coverage and
amounts of rain are expected to be low. The upper ridge builds in
over the eastern to the Southern Plains on Friday and will be a
cap to convection development...and a mostly dry and hot day is
expected. Current forecast has below slight chance of convection
and will keep this. Temperatures warm to the lower and some middle 90s. No
change into the weekend...with mostly dry and hot weather. Again
overall convection chances remain low...with only an isolated
afternoon to early evening potential in the heating of the day.
Temperatures also come up a degree or two. Moisture levels will also
remain up and heat index values will be from the middle to upper
90s...and a few spots approaching 100 degrees.
&&
Long term...Sunday through Wednesday
Summertime pattern will remain across the area...with high pressure
holding strong. However...isolated thunderstorms will be
possible...but will remain isolated enough to not include in the
grids right now. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal...with highs in the upper 80s to the middle 90s. Heat index
readings will be in the middle 90s to near 100.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 68 91 69 92 / 20 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 68 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 65 90 67 91 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 69 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 70 93 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 69 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 67 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 66 91 68 92 / 20 20 10 10
Newport Arkansas 69 92 69 93 / 20 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 69 92 70 92 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 68 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 70 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 10
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...59 / long term...58
