Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
226 PM CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Main concerns this forecast cycle are warming temperatures...
elevated winds...stratus clouds and possible light rain over the
weekend. Then late Sunday night...Monday to early Tuesday...
better chances of precipitation are in the forecast...with some risk
of a wintry mix mainly far northwest to north Arkansas Monday am and Tuesday am.
Today has been sunny with more moderate temperatures as a south wind
returned to Arkansas. The surface high pressure was off to the southeast of
Arkansas...and an elevated south wind at 10 to 20 miles per hour. Some moisture
return was seen over far southeast Texas in the visual satellite and this
will gradually bring some lower stratus clouds to Arkansas. Surface dew
point temperatures were in the 30s. A low level jet will set up overnight
and help bring stratus clouds into the state. The upper trough was
over the eastern U.S. And upper northwest flow is set up over the
central U.S. At this time only some middle and high clouds are seen
well up stream.
Short term...tonight through Monday night
Mostly clear to start the overnight...but as the low level jet
intensifies...it will help bring more moisture from the Gulf Coast
and possible stratus clouds Saturday and Sunday mornings. Saturday
will only see possible drizzle or light rain in spots with limited
lift and up-Glide...while a bit more on Sunday with a slight chance
of light rain. Models are overall consistent showing some light
rain or drizzle Saturday am and possibly afternoon...and then a
bit better chances...albeit slight...on Sunday. Elevated S to SW
winds over the weekend may prompt a lake Wind Advisory...but at
this time will hold off due to forecast below threshold values.
Sunday night and on Monday...slight to chance probability of precipitation are in the
forecast...as better lift and a cold front sag into Arkansas. Monday
around sunrise...temperatures will approach freezing in isolated spots of
northwest Arkansas and we may see light rain mixing with or changing over to
some light wintry mix. Sounding data would support more of a
freezing light precipitation scenario at this time. Light rain will
continue on Monday to early Tuesday and again a short period of a
wintry mix will be on the back side of the precipitation field before it
moves out of Arkansas. At this time only expecting light amounts...few
hundredths. But this will be monitored through the weekend.
Otherwise...temperatures will warm to the 60s Saturday to 60s and some
70s Sunday...then much colder with the cold front Monday to
Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather for Tuesday.
Long term...Wednesday through Friday
Low level moisture begins a slow return in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame. Meanwhile...a weak slow-moving cold front should at least
move close to Arkansas on Thursday. After that...there is disagreement on how
far this front will make it...since the strength of high pressure
behind the front is open to question. At this point...it looks like
the front could weaken and dawdle for at least a couple of days.
Thus...small probability of precipitation are indicated for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will
gradually rise to near seasonal normals.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 43 65 55 69 / 0 10 20 20
Camden Arkansas 48 70 58 74 / 0 10 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 45 68 54 69 / 0 0 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 46 68 56 72 / 0 10 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 45 68 56 72 / 0 10 20 20
Monticello Arkansas 47 68 58 73 / 0 10 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 47 68 57 71 / 0 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 43 67 53 69 / 0 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 43 65 56 69 / 0 10 20 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 45 69 57 73 / 0 10 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 43 69 54 70 / 0 10 20 20
Searcy Arkansas 40 65 54 70 / 0 10 20 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 43 67 55 71 / 0 10 10 20
Short term...59 / long term...28