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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
910 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Discussion...

Evening convection initially was over northwest Arkansas..but has transitioned to
central and eastern areas through the evening. It is associated with
an upper low pressure trough...and embedded energy...while Gulf
moisture makes it into the area. All convection has been moving NE.
00z klzk sounding did have some convection contamination with a
precipitation water value of 1.96 inches...but with SW flow...it would be
around 1.5 inches. Surface dew point temperatures were mainly in the 70s
state wide. Overnight forecast will have a chance of convection...
with the upper lift and moisture moving over the area. Lows will be
from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Saturday remains wet with additional
lift and moisture into Arkansas. (59)

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 750 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014/

Aviation...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
nighttime hours and into Saturday. The precipitation area will
slowly shift toward the Mississippi River with time as a storm
system aloft approaches from the plains.

Outside of where precipitation is occurring...VFR conditions
are in the forecast. There will be some scattered low clouds
at 4000 to 5000 feet...with plenty of middle/high clouds given
hit and miss rain. There may be a few patches of fog overnight
and early Saturday morning...with spotty MVFR visibilities.

In general...winds through Saturday will vary from south to
southwest at 4 to 8 miles per hour. (46)
&&

Short term...today through Monday night

Upper low pressure is over the plains this afternoon with upper
ridges over the southwest and southeast. This upper trough will move
to the Mississippi River Saturday and to the East Coast Sunday.
Upper high pressure will spread across the south Sunday and Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
area this afternoon. The heaviest rainfall is in the northwest and
southeast. These storms are a result of a cold front in the plains
which will stall there tonight. Rain chances will continue tonight
and become likely again on Saturday. Widespread severe thunderstorms
are not anticipated though the stronger storms will produce gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will decrease Sunday afternoon as the system moves east of Arkansas.
A weak short wave will move through northern Arkansas Monday and
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect cooler
temperatures Saturday with cloud cover and rain over the area. Above
normal temperatures are expected by Monday once again.

&&

Long term...Tuesday through Friday
hot and humid weather will prevail during the extended term as an
upper level ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across the
area. Daily high temperatures will soar well into the 90s across
most of the area each day.

Southerly surface winds will continue to bring moist air across the
region...and slight chances for thunderstorms will be present
throughout much of the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 72 84 72 88 / 60 60 50 30
Camden Arkansas 74 84 72 87 / 50 60 50 20
Harrison Arkansas 71 86 70 88 / 60 50 30 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 74 85 72 88 / 60 60 40 20
Little Rock Arkansas 73 84 72 87 / 50 60 50 20
Monticello Arkansas 74 86 73 86 / 50 70 60 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 75 85 72 88 / 60 50 30 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 72 85 70 88 / 60 60 40 20
Newport Arkansas 72 84 72 87 / 50 70 60 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 74 85 73 87 / 50 70 60 30
Russellville Arkansas 73 85 71 88 / 60 50 30 20
Searcy Arkansas 73 84 72 87 / 50 60 50 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 73 85 73 87 / 50 70 60 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...51 / long term...53

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