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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
642 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Aviation...

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the state
with rain expected to continue through the overnight hours. Clouds
will lower during the overnight hours with some IFR conditions
possible. Winds will shift and be out of the northwest by 18z Saturday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/

Short term...tonight through Monday night

Main concern for the short term forecast is the possibility of
severe storms and heavy rains this evening through Saturday
afternoon. Rain chances will...generally speaking...be trending
downward from midday Saturday Onward though.

An upper disturbance will shift northeast from Oklahoma into
southern Missouri tonight...with an associated surface low
following suite and moving across northwest Arkansas. Radar trends
from midday through early this afternoon match up well with what
high resolution and convection allowing models are depicting for
this evening and overnight. Currently a line of thunderstorms
stretch from NE Oklahoma southward through roughly feet Smith and
down to Texarkana. Models show this area of convection shifting
east this evening...bringing a relatively wide swath of 1-2 inches
of rain to parts of western and central Arkansas before
dissipating early Sat morning over the eastern parts of the state.
Some locally higher amounts will possible as storm motions will be
roughly parallel to the line of storms and not particularly fast.
As such some training of cells will occur. Obviously with recent
rainfall grounds are saturated so despite these forecast rainfall
amounts not being incredibly high...any heavy rains that occur
will almost immediately become runoff and contribute to possible
flash flooding...which is the primary concern for the next 12
hours or so. Went ahead and expanded the Flash Flood Watch another
row of counties east...including The Little Rock metropolitan area as
well as areas like Batesville...Searcy...Pine Bluff...and Fordyce
and Camden.

In addition to the possibility of flash flooding...some
ingredients are in place for some severe thunderstorms through
this evening. Low level and deep layer shear will be supportive of
supercell thunderstorms...with the potential for producing some
hail...damaging winds...and even some tornadoes. A Tornado Watch
is in effect through 7 PM in the west to account for this.

Once the disturbance shifts to Missouri Saturday morning a cold
front will move in from the north...drying out the low level air
mass a bit and diminishing rain chances through the end of the
period. Another disturbance will dive south through Arkansas on
Sunday and may bring a few spotty showers...but more likely just
an increase in clouds. Expect dry conditions on Monday.

Long term...Sunday through Sunday

Rain chances appear to be lessening through the period across the
middle south in spite of the models not being in the best agreement at
this time. GFS continues to generate a cut off low that wanders
around the region for a good part of the period while the European model (ecmwf)
builds an upper ridge over the area. Will lean towards the drier
European model (ecmwf) but even if upper low does end up developing...pattern would
still favor a much drier one than seen over the past few weeks.

With high pressure both aloft and on the surface...rain chances will
be at a minimum with some slight chances Wednesday night and again
Thursday but actual rain amounts will be minimal at best. With
building ridge...expect temperatures to average a touch above normal
through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 67 81 62 73 / 80 60 20 20
Camden Arkansas 68 82 65 79 / 80 60 30 30
Harrison Arkansas 63 72 57 71 / 80 50 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 67 81 64 77 / 80 60 30 20
Little Rock Arkansas 68 83 65 76 / 80 60 30 30
Monticello Arkansas 69 83 66 78 / 70 60 30 30
Mount Ida Arkansas 66 80 62 76 / 80 60 30 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 65 76 59 72 / 80 60 20 20
Newport Arkansas 68 81 64 73 / 70 60 30 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 68 82 66 77 / 80 60 30 30
Russellville Arkansas 66 80 62 76 / 80 60 20 20
Searcy Arkansas 67 82 64 74 / 80 60 30 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 68 82 66 76 / 70 60 30 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Baxter-Boone-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-Fulton-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jefferson-Johnson-
Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-
Yell.

&&

$$



Aviation...65

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