Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
618 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
fog will be possible in a few spots through about 14-15z at the
latest. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at all taf sites
through the period. Some isolated convection will exist today but
confidence in whether it will affect any terminals is low given the
expected sparse nature of it. Thus have left it out of the forecast
at all terminals for now.
Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
Short term...today through Saturday night
all short term models in good agreement this morning in maintaining
the hot upper ridge over the forecast area for the next 48 hours or
so before some changes commence. As such...will blend available
forecast solutions this morning.
Upper ridge will remain over the middle south through Thursday keeping
the hot and humid weather in place. Precipitation will be isolated
in nature and diurnally driven but chances appear low enough not to
include in the forecast at this time. Latest surface analysis shows
somewhat drier air has worked into most parts of the state with the
exception being a strip from the southwest through the metropolitan and
into the northeast where higher dew points have pooled. Cumulus
field expected to develop later today...similar to the past few.
This in turn will keep temperatures in check and prevent any heat
related headlines. Heat indices will be in the middle 90s or a little
higher the next few days and warrant an Special Weather Statement this morning.
The upper ridge will be shunted to the east on Friday as an upper
level trough approaches from the west. The main trough and its
associated low will pass to the north of the state but will still
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area...especially
Saturday and into Saturday evening.
The wild card in all this is a weak upper low that moves westward
along the Gulf Coast. While there is little chance of this becoming
a tropical system...it may introduce tropical moisture into the mix.
Will downplay this feature for now but definitely keep a wary eye on
it over the next few nights.
High temperatures will remain in the 90s through the period but will
average just a few degrees above normal for late August. Overall the
mav/mex numbers look reasonable and are generally accepted.
Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
as usual there are some differences amongst model guidance in the
long term however they are in general agreement on the overall
pattern. The upper level pattern across the contiguous United States
will be rather zonal with broad ridging over the southern tier
states...and possibly a broad upper trough moving across the northern
tier at some point late in the period. The resulting low and middle
level flow over Arkansas will be of the southerly nature yielding
muggy conditions and temperatures close to seasonal norms. Rain
chances will be low overall but did leave some chance probability of precipitation in the
forecast on Sunday as a front and associated convection will still be in
the region. Suspect best chances will be in the east but left chance
probability of precipitation in most everywhere to account for possible changes in model
timing over the next couple of days. Otherwise dry conditions will
round out the long term period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 95 71 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 96 69 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 93 69 92 70 / 10 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 95 69 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 95 70 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 94 69 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 94 69 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 96 70 95 71 / 10 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 94 71 92 72 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 95 70 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 96 70 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 95 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 93 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 10