Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1225 am CDT Wednesday may 6 2015
convection over Oklahoma will slowly move east...and may move into
western Arkansas shortly before 12z...but confidence is low. Have
thunderstorms in the vicinity in western tafs for now. VFR conditions will prevail...with
winds becoming gusty by middle morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 900 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
Overall forecast on track. Isolated convection will affect far
western Arkansas this evening into the early overnight...as the upper low
spins over eastern Colorado and rotates some energy to the east. Do expect
it to lift north and weaken...and then only very isolated convection
overnight. Short range models have this trend also. Partly cloudy
skies will be seen overnight and hold temperatures around 60 statewide. No
significant changes with late evening update. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
Short term...tonight through Friday night
high pressure at the surface/aloft over the southeast United
States will be the dominant feature in the near term. This will
keep a southerly wind flow going across Arkansas...with above
normal temperatures in the forecast. Moisture levels will also
Meanwhile...a front will wobble toward the region from the
plains. The front will have difficultly heading to the east
because of high pressure. The front will get close enough to
warrant the mention of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in northern/western sections of the state each day.
It does appear that the front will finally get here in the
extended period...with better chances of rain.
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
upper level flow will be SW over the region at the start of the long
term period...with plenty of moisture in place over the state.
Precipitation chances will be somewhat high as a result...though will
depending on when any disturbances lift NE in the SW flow aloft.
This will continue to be the trend for sun and into early Monday...as
the upper trough to the west very slowly moves east and NE. By later
on Monday...an upper trough will move east across the
plains...deepening over time. This will send a cold front south
through the region...with precipitation chances ending by the end of the
forecast. Temperatures through the period will hover in the 70s and 80s for
highs through sun...though could see a few degree cooler if widespread
rainfall were to persist. Overnight lows will generally be in the
60s to around 70. Slightly cooler and much drier conditions will be
seen behind this front by next Tuesday.