Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
603 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014
Cold front continues to push through the state with a much cooler
air mass slowly overspreading the state. Any precipitation has
moved south of the terminals and dry conditions are expected for
the remainder of the period. After some middle level moisture over the
south moves out this morning...only high level moisture is
expected in the wake of the front with north to northeast winds
developing. Widespread VFR conditions are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 336 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/
Short term...today through Thursday night
The cold front had made it through Arkadelphia and Pine Bluff as
of 3 am this morning...and should manage to push out of the
forecast area by around or shortly after daybreak. Showers and
thunderstorms from Sunday evening dissipated before midnight and
the overnight period was dry...except that a few more isolated
thunderstorms have begun to pop up along the front in south
central Arkansas this morning. But as the front GOES...so will
these...and they move south of the forecast area by daybreak.
Otherwise dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures are
expected today and Tuesday...with lows near 10 degrees below
normal tonight and highs today and Tuesday about 5-7 degrees below
By Tuesday afternoon a large upper trough will be established across
the eastern United States...with a high amplitude and
strengthening ridge out west. A disturbance will drop into the
region in northwest upper flow early Wednesday morning. Models insist in
bringing rainfall into western Arkansas by middle Wednesday morning...then
across much of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There may be a lull in precipitation intensity Wednesday night but another
disturbance will move through the region Thursday morning for
another round of heavier rainfall. Taking into account all model
solutions...there has not been much consistency with respect to
where the heaviest rainfall will be. In general though The Middle
Ground approach would say somewhere south of the I-40 corridor is
a good bet...and the forecast will reflect that thinking.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be the coolest of the
week. Between the rainfall and cloud cover temperatures will run
in excess of 10 degrees below normal...and may struggle to make 80
degrees on Thursday for most areas. Rainfall should push out of
the area by midnight Thursday night.
Long term...Friday through Sunday
Differences in the extended period not nearly as pronounced versus
this time last night with the GFS solution now backing off its
solution of closing off an upper low in the base of the eastern
Continental U.S. Trough. Will continue to blend forecast solutions for the
differences that are still showing up this morning with a lean
towards the more consistent European model (ecmwf).
Period initiates with a highly amplified pattern in place with the
seemingly ever present western Continental U.S. Ridge and subsequent downstream
troughing in place. Frontal system will be located just to the south
of the state with high pressure building into the Central Plains.
With plenty of residual moisture about and the models continuing to
hold on to quantitative precipitation forecast...mainly to the south....will hold on to slight
chance probability of precipitation for early in the period.
Models remain consistent in keeping some precipitation over the
southeast zones and will add some minimal probability of precipitation here with the
remainder of the area dry. Will gradually remove all probability of precipitation across the
County Warning Area as the aforementioned high pressure makes its presence felt.
Upper pattern really does not change much through the period and
northwest flow aloft will predominate. While temperatures will warm
somewhat...they will remain below normal.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 86 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 20
Camden Arkansas 91 67 88 65 / 20 0 0 20
Harrison Arkansas 82 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 88 65 86 64 / 0 0 0 30
Little Rock Arkansas 88 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 20
Monticello Arkansas 89 67 86 64 / 20 0 0 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 88 63 85 63 / 10 0 0 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 84 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 20
Newport Arkansas 85 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 88 65 84 64 / 10 0 0 20
Russellville Arkansas 87 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 30
Searcy Arkansas 86 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 86 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 20