Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
345 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
Short term...today through Saturday night
High pressure aloft remains firmly in control across the middle south early this
morning. Exepct pretty much a repeat of conds experienced on Tuesday over Arkansas
today as upper ridge persists...producing yet another hot and humid day
for Arkansas. Heat advisories/excessive heat warnings remain in place for much of
the forecast area today and no changes were made to headlines. Highs today will again
be in the 90s...with a few locations topping the century mark.
The upper level pattern across the nation will become more amplified in the
coming days at the upper ridge shifts westward...with a resulting upper trough
over the eastern states. The resulting northwesterly flow aloft across the middle south
will allow a cold front to drop southward through Arkansas later today and tonight. Lift
associated with the fnt will be limited...so widely scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be
noted with the frontal passage through tonight.
The aforementioned cold front will be in the vicinity of southern Arkansas on Thursday...with
lingering rain chances mentioned. Much drier air will be filtering southward
into Arkansas behind the fnt Thursday and Friday. By Friday afternoon...most locations will
see surface dewpoints in the lower and middle 60s. Surface high pressure will persist
through Sat. The northwesterly upper flow will bring a weak frontal boundary into northern Arkansas
late Sat/Sat night with little impact expected as moisture will be limited.
Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
High pressure aloft will be centered over The Four Corners area to
begin the long term period. Little movement will be noted through
the period...which will keep northwest flow over Arkansas.
Quiet weather is expected at the beginning of the period.
However...a weak shortwave is anticipated to move through the
northwest flow Tuesday...triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Maximum temperatures in the 90s to near 100 degrees are
expected through the period.
excessive heat warning from 7 am this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
Heat advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Short term...44 / long term...51