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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
635 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Discussion...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. The main
forecast concern with the 00z taf package is how close
thunderstorm activity will get to northern sites tomorrow
afternoon. Added in vcsh to kbpk as it appears that mesoscale convective system activity
moving southeast from Missouri into northestern Arkansas may get close by
18z-20z time frame Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere dry conditions
with VFR flight categories should persist through the 00z period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 232 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015/

Short term...tonight through Friday night
overall an unsettled weather pattern is expected through the period
thanks to a persistent northwest flow aloft. Said flow is expected
to persist through the period as dominant western Continental U.S....briefly
knocked down...starts to get established again. Models are in close
enough agreement that a blend of solutions seems justified at this
time.

Hazy conditions prevail across the state at this time but clouds are
not to blame. Rather the culprit is smoke...moving through the
northwest flow from wildfires raging across the Canadian prairie
Provence. Believe most of the overnight hours will be dry as area is
between systems dropping down through the aforementioned northwest
flow which will looks to prevail through the period.

Next upper feature expected to arrive during the day on Wednesday.
With plenty of moisture around and the remnant of an old boundary
lurking about...scattered showers and thunderstorms appear to be a
pretty good bet...especially over the north and northeast parts of
the state. This system will be followed by a succession of upper
impulses to keep at least scattered precipitation in the forecast
through the period.

Of course in this type of pattern...timing of these impulses is
problematic at best but there will be a definite diurnal slant to
the precipitation and the north seemingly in the bullseyes. With a
juicy airmass in place...any training of convective cells could lead
to flooding concerns temperatures for the most part will remain close to
seasonal norms.

Long term...Saturday through Monday...
long term begins with northwest flow in place across much of Arkansas with
a ridge of high pressure to the west. Through the weekend...the
ridge in the western United States will expand eastward across
Arkansas and bring a return of above normal temperatures for the
beginning of next week.

Of greater concern will be the chances for precipitation for the
Holiday weekend. Models are currently in good agreement with a
stalled front to the north of Arkansas and continued rounds of
precipitation through Sunday afternoon. Drier air builds in on
Monday as surface high pressure remains anchored across the southeast
United States.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 91 73 88 74 / 10 20 40 50
Camden Arkansas 91 73 92 76 / 30 20 20 20
Harrison Arkansas 89 71 87 73 / 10 20 40 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 92 74 91 76 / 20 20 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 93 75 92 76 / 20 20 30 30
Monticello Arkansas 90 73 91 76 / 30 20 20 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 91 73 90 76 / 20 20 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 90 70 86 72 / 10 20 40 50
Newport Arkansas 91 73 88 75 / 20 30 40 50
Pine Bluff Arkansas 91 73 91 76 / 30 20 20 20
Russellville Arkansas 93 73 91 75 / 10 20 30 30
Searcy Arkansas 92 73 90 75 / 20 20 40 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 92 74 90 76 / 20 20 30 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...64

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