Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
mostly clear until after midnight...then becoming MVFR due to br
at most taf sites. From 10z-13z frequent IFR/occasional LIFR due to low
ceilings and br. Between 14z and 16z Sunday becoming VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 1000 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
Overall forecast on track. Morning fog is dissipating quickly and
earlier forecast update removed fog mention. Skies will be mostly
sunny today with temperatures warming to the upper 70s and mainly 80s state
wide this afternoon. Surface winds will be more from the SW today at
5 to 10 miles per hour. The upper high pressure ridge over the Southern Plains
to the Western Plains was building in over the central U.S. And will
keep the dry and well above normal temperatures going this weekend. No
significant changes to afternoon forecast at this time. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
high pressure will build over the area this morning. Patchy fog
will be across mainly west and southwest sections through middle
morning with IFR conditions at times. Skies will be clear the rest
of the day with VFR conditions. Fog will develop again Sunday
morning with at least MVFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
Short term...today through Tuesday night
Surface high pressure ridge was situated just to the southeast of the forecast area early this
morning...resulting in a light west/southwesterly wind flow in most areas. Skies were
clear and patchy fog was again noted...especially in the valleys and areas
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the headline for the weekend as high
pressure aloft builds across the area. S/southwesterly surface winds will increases over the forecast area
especially on sun as a storm system develops in the plains states. Highs today will
be mainly in the lower and middle 80s...with middle to upper 80s expected
sun. A few record high temperatures could at least be tied Sun afternoon.
The upper ridge is prognosticated to weaken and shift eastward by Monday as a broad upper
trough heads eastward across The Rockies and eventually into the plains
states. Clouds will increases from the west on Monday as an associated cold front approaches from
the northwest. Scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms and rain will be possible across northwestern Arkansas starting
Monday night. The cold front will shift southeastward through Arkansas Tuesday/early Tuesday night with good
chances of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain accompanying the frontal passage. Rain chances will gradually
diminish from the northwest starting Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Long term...Wednesday through Friday
An upper trough will be moving through the Great Lakes and
Appalachians Wednesday to begin the long term period with an upper
ridge over the western U.S. The trough will move to the East Coast
Wednesday night. As high pressure aloft builds over the western U.S.
Thursday...northwest flow will develop over Arkansas. The upper
ridge will move into the plains Friday.
A cold front will be just southeast of Arkansas to begin the period.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms central and
south as a short wave moves through the area. Another short wave
moves through Missouri Thursday and should just bring additional
cloud cover to north Arkansas. Drier air moves in for Saturday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 83 56 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 83 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 84 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 83 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 83 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 84 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 83 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 84 55 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 84 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 83 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 83 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 83 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 83 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0