Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 620 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013 Discussion... Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below. && Aviation... VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure moves into the state. Winds will be light through the period...less than 8kt generally speaking...and the only clouds will be afternoon cumulus around 4k feet tomorrow. && Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/ Short term...tonight through Saturday night latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate scattered cumulus across northern and central sections of the forecast area. Instability analysis indicates surface based cape values from 1000-1500 k/jg across the area. Any forcing mechanisms to realize this energy would be very small scale in nature...and likely not sufficient to produce any convection before the loss of solar insolation. A weak disturbance in northwest flow...and associated surface reflection will affect the state on Thursday. Forcing may be sufficient to produce widely scattered...weak convection across mainly western areas during the afternoon and early evening. Much drier conditions will filter south the region behind the boundary...and will promote dry conditions for the remainder of the period. Long term...Sunday through Wednesday an upper ridge will be over the central U.S. To begin the period. The ridge will remain over Arkansas through Monday and begin moving east late Tuesday. An upper trough also digs into the southwest U.S. Tuesday and will slowly move east Wednesday. A short wave moving through the area with a warm front Sunday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Will continue the chances of rain through Monday morning. Drier air returns to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are expected through the period with a warming trend. && Preliminary point temps/pops... Batesville Arkansas 81 57 81 52 / 20 0 10 10 Camden Arkansas 83 60 89 61 / 20 0 20 20 Harrison Arkansas 78 54 77 50 / 10 0 10 10 Hot Springs Arkansas 82 58 85 58 / 10 0 20 20 Little Rock Arkansas 82 59 85 58 / 20 0 20 10 Monticello Arkansas 82 61 88 61 / 20 0 20 10 Mount Ida Arkansas 82 56 84 58 / 10 0 20 20 Mountain Home Arkansas 81 55 79 50 / 10 0 10 10 Newport Arkansas 81 58 82 54 / 20 0 10 10 Pine Bluff Arkansas 81 61 86 60 / 20 0 20 10 Russellville Arkansas 81 56 83 56 / 10 0 10 10 Searcy Arkansas 82 58 83 55 / 20 0 10 10 Stuttgart Arkansas 81 60 85 59 / 20 0 10 10 && Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. && $$ Aviation...64