Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
239 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term...tonight through Sunday night
at the surface...a stationary frontal boundary is set up just to
the south of the region. Upper wave has touched off showers/storms
in Oklahoma...which have waned in the last few hours. The cirrus
shield from the storms has kept temperatures mostly in the 70s in
the northwest half of the state...while readings elsewhere have
been in the lower to middle 80s.
There will be small chances for showers/storms this evening in the
far southwest...close to the frontal boundary and any interaction
with the remnants from the morning system. Otherwise...cooler and
drier air will continue to push into the region behind the front...
with upper ridging building somewhat over the region.
With cloud cover and northeast/easterly flow...highs on Friday
will mostly be in the 70s. Lows tonight and Friday night will
mainly be in the 50s.
Slow warming will commence during the weekend. Even so...fairly
pleasant temperatures will continue. By late Saturday into Sunday...
the aforementioned upper ridge will shift a bit...allowing for
several waves to move through around the periphery of it. At the
same time...the frontal boundary that moved through today will
move back to the north as a warm front. This will allow for
scattered showers/storms to be possible...mainly in the afternoon
and early evening hours as the systems interact.
&&
Long term...Monday through Thursday
an upper ridge will be over the area to begin the period with an
upper trough over the western U.S. And an upper low over the
northeast U.S. The upper ridge starts to move east Tuesday and the
upper trough moves to The Rockies Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft
will be over Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday.
Models are in similar agreement for the extended period. A
stationary front is expected to be over southern Arkansas Monday
morning. Moisture overrunning this front may cause isolated showers
and thunderstorms across the north. Kept the slight chance in the
north for Monday through Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure
builds into the area from the east Wednesday and Thursday and this
should decrease precipitation chances. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer behind the front and will remain above normal through the
period.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 10
Camden Arkansas 62 79 55 84 / 20 10 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 50 71 49 78 / 10 0 0 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 60 76 55 81 / 20 10 0 10
Little Rock Arkansas 58 78 54 81 / 10 0 0 10
Monticello Arkansas 63 79 54 81 / 20 10 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 57 77 53 80 / 20 10 0 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 49 72 49 79 / 10 0 0 10
Newport Arkansas 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 61 75 55 79 / 20 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 56 78 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 55 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 58 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...57 / long term...51
