Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
620 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.
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Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure moves into the state.
Winds will be light through the period...less than 8kt generally
speaking...and the only clouds will be afternoon cumulus around 4k feet
tomorrow.
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Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term...tonight through Saturday night
latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate scattered
cumulus across northern and central sections of the forecast area.
Instability analysis indicates surface based cape values from
1000-1500 k/jg across the area. Any forcing mechanisms to realize
this energy would be very small scale in nature...and likely not
sufficient to produce any convection before the loss of solar
insolation.
A weak disturbance in northwest flow...and associated surface
reflection will affect the state on Thursday. Forcing may be
sufficient to produce widely scattered...weak convection across
mainly western areas during the afternoon and early evening. Much
drier conditions will filter south the region behind the
boundary...and will promote dry conditions for the remainder of the
period.
Long term...Sunday through Wednesday
an upper ridge will be over the central U.S. To begin the period.
The ridge will remain over Arkansas through Monday and begin moving
east late Tuesday. An upper trough also digs into the southwest U.S.
Tuesday and will slowly move east Wednesday.
A short wave moving through the area with a warm front Sunday will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Will continue the
chances of rain through Monday morning. Drier air returns to the
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are expected
through the period with a warming trend.
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 81 57 81 52 / 20 0 10 10
Camden Arkansas 83 60 89 61 / 20 0 20 20
Harrison Arkansas 78 54 77 50 / 10 0 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 82 58 85 58 / 10 0 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 82 59 85 58 / 20 0 20 10
Monticello Arkansas 82 61 88 61 / 20 0 20 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 82 56 84 58 / 10 0 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 81 55 79 50 / 10 0 10 10
Newport Arkansas 81 58 82 54 / 20 0 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 81 61 86 60 / 20 0 20 10
Russellville Arkansas 81 56 83 56 / 10 0 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 82 58 83 55 / 20 0 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 81 60 85 59 / 20 0 10 10
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Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
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Aviation...64
