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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
654 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Aviation...
an area of showers over north central Arkansas may bring a shower
or two to kbpk this morning but no other taf site will be affected.
Otherwise widespread VFR condition will persist through the
period. Afternoon cumulus development is expected with gusty south
to southeast winds developing once again.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 407 am CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/

Short term...today through Sunday

Southerly return flow continues across Arkansas this morning as
the state lies between surface high pressure off the coast of the
Carolinas and weak low pressure in far western Texas. The surface low
in Texas will lift north today in response to an upper wave moving
from the southern Arizona/New Mexico border this morning to the
Colorado High Plains by this evening. Ascent ahead of this feature
will yield some isolated to scattered convection this afternoon
along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border...with more widespread
convection closer to the disturbance back in central and western
Oklahoma. Have some 20-30 percent rain chances in western Arkansas
to account for this. The shortwave axis will rotate through NE
Oklahoma during the day Wednesday...triggering more scattered
convection along the OK/Arkansas border once again. A few stray showers
cannot be ruled out across central or even eastern Arkansas today
or tomorrow...given there are a few on radar north of The Little
Rock area this morning. However feel that the main focus for any
rainfall will be in western Arkansas.

By late Wednesday night this lead wave will have shifted to the northern
plains...with a closed low dropping south through California. This
western trough/eastern ridge pattern will then hold through the
end of the week. Disturbances in the southwest upper flow in place
atop the Southern Plains will spark off showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday...Thu...and again on Friday. Each round of rain will gradually
shift east...with rain chances across much of the state by Friday
afternoon.

Temperatures during the short term are expected to remain above
normal.

Long term...Sunday through Sunday

Medium range models are continuing to be in decent enough
agreement that it is increasingly difficult to settle on one
solution versus another. Feel the best course of action is to
simply blend forecast solutions.

Period starts off once again with upper level low pressure and
its associated trough over the Desert Southwest. A cut off upper
low off the southeast coast will continue to meander through the
weekend before finally lifting out. Meanwhile...southwest system
will lift with associated surface reflection moving into the
northern plains by Monday morning.

Resultant pattern will provide southwest flow aloft that will tap
into Pacific moisture. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will persist until the associated front clears the area during the
day Monday. There are enough timing differences between these waves
that more of a broad brush approach will be used. Temperatures look
to average a few degrees about normal through the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 83 60 82 63 / 20 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 84 61 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 80 61 78 60 / 20 20 30 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 82 63 82 64 / 10 20 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 84 61 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 84 61 83 65 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 81 61 79 64 / 20 20 20 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 82 59 79 61 / 20 10 20 10
Newport Arkansas 84 61 83 63 / 20 0 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 84 61 83 64 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 83 61 81 62 / 20 20 20 10
Searcy Arkansas 83 59 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 83 61 82 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...56

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