Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
305 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Today through Monday night...
not a lot of value added changes are needed this morning as all
short term models remain in good agreement. That being said...will
continue to use a blend of forecast solutions for the few...mainly
finer scale differences...that exist.
Latest surface analysis places a surface boundary extending from
northern Louisiana across southwest Arkansas. Dew points are
generally in the lower to middle 60s across all areas except the
southwest but moisture levels will be in the increase during the day
as the aforementioned boundary begins to lift back to the north as a
No precipitation is expected as the boundary lifts through with much
warmer temperatures returning for the weekend. Highs are expected to
be in the middle to upper 90s by Sunday. Heat indices over the century
mark are expected both Saturday and especially Sunday afternoon but
will likely fall just short of heat advisory criteria. Overall the
mav/mex numbers look good and are generally accepted.
The upper pattern is still dominated by upper ridging which has been
pushed knocked down and shunted slightly east when compared to the
past few days and is now centered over the Texas Panhandle. Upper
low moving across central Canada at this time will drop into the
upper Midwest by late Saturday with its attendant cold front
dropping into the Central Plains.
Cold front will move into northern Arkansas late Sunday and will
exit the state by the end of the period. GFS/CMC solutions are the
most aggressive developing some precipitation along the boundary
while European model (ecmwf) has virtually none. Will hold onto slight chance probability of precipitation at
this point but regardless of which model verifies...only minimal
amounts of precipitation are expected.
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
by Tuesday morning the upper level pattern will be highly
amplified...with a large upper trough will be firmly entrenched
across the eastern Continental U.S. And a strong ridge out west. At the surface
a cold front will have passed through the state on Monday and be
situated in northern Louisiana. In the wake of the front will be another
unseasonably cool air mass moving into the state. In fact...near
record lows will be possible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...and again Wednesday
night/Thursday morning...mainly in central and southern Arkansas where
morning lows will be in the lower 60s once again. In the
north...readings may fall into the upper 50s...quite cool for late
July but still several degrees warmer than the daily record lows.
Likewise...highs will be unseasonably cool as well though
potentially a bit tricky to forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. In general
highs will be in the upper 70s to the middle 80s. Models show a
disturbance approaching from the west sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Forecasts have varied the last couple of days but in general it
looks like cloud cover and rain chances will return to at least
southwest Arkansas during that time. Depending on when cloud cover
moves in and/or where rain sets up...temperature forecasts may be
problematic in the southwest half of the forecast area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 91 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
Camden Arkansas 94 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 91 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 93 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 91 70 96 74 / 0 0 0 10
Monticello Arkansas 92 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 94 70 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 91 69 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
Newport Arkansas 90 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 91 70 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 93 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
Searcy Arkansas 90 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 90 70 94 73 / 0 0 0 10
Short term...56 / long term...64