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Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
555 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015


Patchy light rain will spread across the region this morning. There
may be a few wet snowflakes toward the Missouri border.
Precipitation will taper off early this afternoon. While there will
be a lot of clouds today...conditions should remain VFR in most
areas. Spotty MVFR conditions could occur in northeast Arkansas.

Winds today will be east to southeast at 8 to 14 miles per hour...with a
few gusts from 16 to 20 miles per hour in places. Winds tonight will be
east/southeast at 5 to 9 miles per hour. (46)

Short through Tuesday

Much of the County Warning Area was dry early this morning...though some areas of
light rain will be seen this morning into the early afternoon hours as
another upper level shortwave drops south across the region. Just
like on Friday...there may be some wintry precipitation mixed in with the
light rain across the far north and northeast this morning. Have
also mentioned precipitation chances further SW than yesterday as some of
the high res models indicate a wave of light precipitation dropping southeast from
southeastern Kansas/northestern OK into western and central sections of the County Warning Area later this
morning. Keep probability of precipitation at slight to low end chance in this area though
as only some very light rain or sprinkles are possible. Have higher
probability of precipitation further NE as confidence is a bit higher under the stronger
upper level energy. Expect most areas to see a mostly cloudy
sky...especially the northestern two thirds of the County Warning Area. This cloud cover
will keep temperatures cooler than seen on Friday...with highs in the upper
40s to middle 50s...though areas across the far NE may only manage low
40s for highs today. Southwestern sections of the state should see upper 60s
to middle 60s...with less overall cloud cover.

Dry conditions will be seen tonight into much of sun. Less cloud
cover is expected...and srly flow will be seen. This will allow for
warmer temperatures across the County Warning Area...with highs in the low 60s across the
northestern the upper 60s to upper 70s across central and
southwestern sections of the County Warning Area.

A cold front will drop south into the state late Sun afternoon and
move down into central sections of the state Sun night. Have probability of precipitation
increasing as this occurs...though only include chance probability of precipitation as deep
moisture return will be limited and overall forcing lacking. Even
so...given temperatures warming into the 70s before the frontal passage...have
mentioned some isolated thunderstorms and rain...though think the majority of the
precipitation that does develop will lack thunder. Chances for precipitation will
continue into the rest of the short term period as this front
meanders across the region. Temperatures will remain mild however.


Long term...Wednesday through Friday

Data has been consistent in showing a stalled front across the
region Wednesday...with clouds and isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As the front washes out...a new cold front will
arrive from the plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front...chances for
hit and miss precipitation will continue...followed by drying and an
area of high pressure on Friday.

Overall...while it will be unsettled...rain does not look widespread
or heavy in the extended period. Temperatures through this time
frame will be above normal...with cooling behind the new front
as the period ends.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 43 34 64 45 / 50 0 10 40
Camden Arkansas 64 44 78 59 / 20 0 0 40
Harrison Arkansas 52 36 67 42 / 30 0 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 61 42 73 54 / 20 0 0 40
Little Rock Arkansas 55 40 71 53 / 30 0 0 40
Monticello Arkansas 59 43 74 58 / 20 0 0 40
Mount Ida Arkansas 62 41 73 53 / 20 0 0 40
Mountain Home Arkansas 45 35 65 43 / 50 0 20 20
Newport Arkansas 43 35 64 45 / 50 0 0 40
Pine Bluff Arkansas 56 41 72 55 / 20 0 0 40
Russellville Arkansas 58 39 69 50 / 20 0 10 40
Searcy Arkansas 48 37 67 49 / 40 0 0 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 52 40 69 53 / 30 0 0 40

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.


Short term...62 / long term...46

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