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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
638 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Aviation...
a cold front continues to move through south Arkansas this
morning. Winds will become northeast behind the front and gusty at
times. High pressure will build into the area also behind the
front. VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015/

Short term...today through Sunday night

The persistent upper ridge...that has brought the oppressive heat and
humidity to Arkansas of late...was already starting to retrograde westward early
this morning. This has allowed a weak frontal boundary to drop southward through northern
and central Arkansas overnight. The fnt will continue working slowly southward as the day
progresses.

Northeasterly surface winds behind the fnt will gradually bring a drier airmass
into much of the region. Low level moisture will pool along the boundary
across southern Arkansas today. Afternoon temperatures in the middle and upper 90s in the vicinity
of the fnt will push heat indices into the 105 to 109 degree range.
So have issued a heat advisory for our southern counties this afternoon.

As a far as rain chances go...a weak shortwave will work out of OK and approach
western Arkansas today. This feature will interact with the lingering surface boundary to
produce widely scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over the southwestern half of the forecast area. Some of the
hi-res model data continue to suggest that west-central and southwestern Arkansas will be the
area of focus for storm formation.

The aforementioned boundary will continue to work further to the S and west of
Arkansas by Friday as surface high pressure builds into the middle south. High temperatures heading
into the weekend will be closer to normal...with humidity values much
lower compared to late. Northwesterly flow aloft will bring another weak fnt
southward into Arkansas later in the weekend...but is not expected to have much
impact on the area.

Long term...Monday through Wednesday

High pressure aloft will be centered over The Four Corners area to
begin the long term period. Little movement will be noted through
the period. This will keep northwest flow over Arkansas.

Quiet weather is expected to begin the period. However...a weak
shortwave is anticipated to move through the northwest flow
Wednesday...triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms...mainly
north. Maximum temperatures in the 90s to near 100 degrees are expected
through the period. Lows will be in the 70s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 91 67 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 97 71 94 69 / 30 10 10 0
Harrison Arkansas 87 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 95 72 93 69 / 20 10 10 0
Little Rock Arkansas 94 71 93 71 / 20 10 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 97 72 93 70 / 20 10 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 95 70 92 67 / 30 20 10 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 89 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 90 68 92 68 / 10 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 93 70 93 70 / 20 10 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 94 70 93 68 / 20 10 10 0
Searcy Arkansas 92 69 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 92 71 92 70 / 20 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-
Ouachita-Pike-Polk.

&&

$$



Aviation...51

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