Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1057 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014
Cold front was situated across central Arkansas at late morning...roughly running
along the Highway 67/167...I-30 corridor. Temperatures have been slowly
falling behind the fnt...with upper 30s to middle 40s noted. Readings
in the middle and upper 50s are common in advance of the fnt. Will continue
to see periods of rain and a few storms across the southeastern half of the forecast area
this afternoon. A few storms could produce marginally severe hail.
Meanwhile...colder air will continue to advect into northwestern Arkansas. Have
already seen a rain/snow mix occur over parts of far northwestern Arkansas.
Included some mixed precipitation over parts of north-central Arkansas late this afternoon
as the colder airmass deepens in those areas.
Hrly temperatures have been updated to reflect current trends and for
timing of the cold front through the rest of the forecast area this afternoon and early
tonight. Slowly falling temperatures will continue over northern and western Arkansas...with nearly
steady then a gradual drop in readings elsewhere as the afternoon
progresses. All updated products have been sent. /44/
Previous discussion... /issued 546 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014/
A cold front will make its way through the state today with winds
shifting out of the north across all taf sites by 00z. Rain will
continue for much of the day today. IFR and LIFR conditions will
be possible through the day today. Precipitation will be coming to
an end first across khro and kbpk during the overnight
hours...with rain continuing elsewhere through the end of the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 446 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014/
Short term...today through Tuesday night
a cold front in northwest Arkansas this morning will slowly push
through the region...and will be along the Mississippi River this
evening. The front will bring likely chances of rain today...with
isolated thunderstorms possible.
A storm system will form along the front in Louisiana this
evening...and will track into northern Mississippi during the
predawn hours Sunday. The presence of the system will keep rain
going tonight...especially across the southeast half of the state.
Light rain will linger south and east of Little Rock on Sunday.
Otherwise...clearing will take place from the west as high
pressure builds into the area. It will also turn a little cooler.
Overall rainfall with this event will not be heavy. Amounts from
a tenth to a quarter inch will be noted across the
northern/western counties...with half inch to inch totals
It will be dry on Monday with close to seasonal temperatures.
A strong area of Arctic high pressure will loom to the
northwest. The leading edge of the high will be marked by a
new cold front...with the front going through without
precipitation. Temperatures will begin trending downward
heading into the extended period.
Long term...Wednesday through Friday
high pressure is in control of Arkansas to start the long term with
the coldest day of the forecast on Wednesday. High temperatures
across northern Arkansas may struggle to reach freezing. Models
agree that high pressure will remain in control through Thursday
before it slides off to the east. Southerly winds will return...as
will a return of moisture as a surface low develops along the
western Gulf Coast. Models somewhat disagree on the timing and track
of the surface low...but even with the somewhat warmer track of the
GFS...it appears some form of wintry precipitation will be possible
across northern Arkansas. At this time...with this much
uncertainty...do not have enough confidence to go above chance probability of precipitation
at this time for Friday.
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. &&