Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
931 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
a weak cold front that will cross the area tonight. High pressure
will then build from the Midwest through Wednesday then persist
offshore Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will enter the
region in the Saturday night time frame.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
decrease late this evening and overnight due to the loss of
A weak cold front will pass through the region late tonight...but
little temperature or dewpoint gradient will be associated with
the front. In fact...low-level moisture will be trapped underneath
the nocturnal inversion leading to areas of fog overnight. Min
temperatures will range from the 60s in the Shenandoah Valley and Potomac
Highlands to the lower and middle 70s in downtown Washington and
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
County Warning Area will be Post-frontal on Wednesday. Northwest winds will bring
some drying through the County Warning Area...leading to plenty of sunshine and
lower humidity. Front looks like it gets hung up in central
Virginia as weak high pressure builds in from the north. A few
afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible near the boundary
across extreme southern portions of our County Warning Area in central Virginia.
High moves offshore on Thursday. May see isolated showers and
thunderstorms develop up/near the Blue Ridge by afternoon. Activity
would likely be diurnal in nature. Trough develops on Friday...with
the potential for more diurnal convection.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
another cold front approaches Friday night. Question is how
quickly the front pushes through the area. It may move through by
Saturday night...but its possible it doesn/T clear the southeast
part of the County Warning Area until Sunday. High pressure and dry airmass will
build into the area Monday.
Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/...
coverage of convection will continue to diminish late this evening
and overnight. Areas of fog are expected. MVFR/IFR visibilities are
possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
VFR expected Wednesday Post-frontal and with high pressure in
control. High moves offshore to end the week. Next cold front will
affect the area over the weekend.
primary concern late this evening will be gusty winds and
lightning in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
will diminish in coverage overnight. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday then moves offshore to end the week. Cold front moves
through over the weekend.
District of Columbia...none.