Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
333 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will build overhead today through Sunday. A cold
front will approach the area Monday from the Ohio Valley before
passing through our area late Monday night into Tuesday. High
pressure will briefly build overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday
before a reinforcing cold front moves through Wednesday night.
High pressure will build overhead late next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
the cold front has passed through the area and a northerly flow
behind the boundary is ushering in cooler and drier air early this
morning. High and middle-level clouds over the area should dissipate
from northwest to southeast this morning as a northwest flow aloft
develops behind an upper-level trough that will be moving off to
Canadian high pressure will build toward the region today and
north to northeast winds will continue to usher in noticeably
cooler and drier conditions. Plenty of sunshine is expected this
afternoon. Maximum temperatures will range from the 50s in the mountains to
the middle 60s across most other locations.
High pressure will settle over the region tonight. The combination
of mainly clear skies...light winds and dry air will provide a
good setup for radiational cooling. Leaned toward the colder
guidance for this reason in sheltered valleys and rural areas. Min
temperatures will range from the middle 30s in sheltered valleys and rural
areas west of the Blue Ridge mountains...to the lower 50s in
downtown Washington and Baltimore. Patchy frost is possible in
those colder valleys.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
high pressure will remain overhead Sunday...bringing plenty of
sunshine. It will turn out to be a warm afternoon...despite a
chilly start. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in the
mountains to the Lower/Middle 70s across most other locations. The
high will remain overhead Sunday night...providing another good
setup for radiational cooling. However...it will not be as chilly
as Saturday night.
A cold front will move into the Ohio Valley Monday and a southerly
flow is expected to develop ahead of the front. This will allow
for warm conditions along with some sunshine. The cold front will
move into the area Monday night. A couple showers are
possible...but any rainfall amounts will be light. Monday night
will turn out to be noticeably milder compared to recent nights
due to the southerly flow ahead of the cold front.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
only significant weather feature this upcoming workweek will be
the late Monday early Tuesday cold front. A reinforcing second cold
front moves through late Wednesday with no sig weather. Temperatures will dip
down as the high pressure behind the front moves in. Slightly
below average temperatures expected for the middle to late week. But nothing
out of place for middle Oct. By next weekend another shot of even
cooler air may move in. But of course the ensemble members are all
over the place by then.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. North to
northeast winds may gust around 20 knots through midday. Light
winds are expected tonight through Sunday night. A southerly flow
will develop Monday into Monday night ahead of a cold front. VFR
conditions expected middle to late week.
north to northeast winds will gust around 20 knots behind a cold
front this morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
the waters. Winds will diminish this afternoon as the high builds
overhead. Light winds are expected tonight through Sunday night
with high pressure overhead. A southerly flow will develop Monday
into Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. No
significant marine weather in the middle to late week.
a northerly wind will continue to cause tidal anomalies to
decrease this morning. A light southerly flow will develop later
Sunday and especially Monday ahead of a cold front. Tidal
anomalies will increase during this time. Minor tidal flooding is
possible Sunday for sensitive areas near high tide...but the
better chance for minor tidal flooding will be Monday when the
southerly flow is a bit stronger.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz530>543.