Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
240 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a cold front has moved through the area today. Drier weather will
move in behind the front. High pressure will build overhead for
midweek... bringing cooler and less humid conditions.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
a cold front has moved through the middle-Atlantic region today and
dewpoints have dropped to the 50s with a few low 60s near the Bay. A shortwave
trough will move across the northeast tonight. Cold air advection
and the shortwave energy has led to strato cumulus condition across the
region this afternoon. A few showers have popped up this afternoon in the
westerly flow. A tight pressure gradient has led to gusty west-northwest
winds with gusts around 30 miles per hour. Expect this trend to continue the
rest of the afternoon.
Showers and winds will diminish by sunset and the shortwave trough
will move across northern New England tonight. Clouds will decrease in
coverage by late tonight and temperatures will drop into the upper 40s
low 50s in The Highlands to the low 60s across the northern Piedmont
and southern Maryland.
A upper low will persist Tuesday as high pressure moves into the
region. Nearly winds will continue bringing unseasonable cool temperatures
to the mid-Atlantic. Forecast maximum temperatures in the middle to upper 70s are expected.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday/...
cool conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as high
pressure nears and winds relax. Forecast min temperatures Tuesday night range
from the upper 40s to low 50s in the mountains to the upper 50s near
High pressure persists across the area Wednesday. A few showers
are possible across the Potomac Highlands Wednesday afternoon as a
disturbance moves around the upper level low. Temperatures will be
below normal barely reaching 80 degree.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
high pressure offshore sets up weak return flow for Thursday as
large cold-core upper low over the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay
continues to dominate the upper air pattern. Marine wedge looks to
be in place Friday into the weekend at the surface while southwest
flow aloft continues to draw in more deep layer moisture. Weak vorts
in southwest flow will daily chances of showers/storms in the
forecast Friday and the weekend. The best chance will be
Saturday/Saturday night as positively tilted shore wave trough lifts
northeast across the Ohio Valley. Associated weak cool front looks
to push through or stall from 00 to 12z Sunday. Deep layer shear
looks minimal at this time...however marginal to moderate
instability will make some convection possible. At this time...no
severe weather is expected however heavy rain is a possibility.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
gusty northwest winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30kts will continue this
afternoon. Winds should subside around sunset with northwest winds
5-10kts occuring overnight. An isolated shower is possible near
the terminals today. High pressure moves into the region tonight.
VFR conditions expected today through Tuesday. Winds relax Tuesday
night and patchy fog may impact cho-mrb early Wednesday morning.
At this time confidence is low.
High pressure offshore will draw in warmer and more
humid conditions Friday and through the weekend...which will result
in daily chances of thunderstorms. The best chance will be Saturday
into Saturday night with a cold front.
a cold front moved through the waters today while northwest winds with
gusts up to 30 kts persist on the waters. Gusty winds will
continue through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the waters
today. Northern portions of the waters drop late tonight as mixing
lessens on the smaller zones. High pressure will move into the
region tonight and Tuesday. Nearly winds 5-10 kts expected Tuesday
and Wednesday on the waters.
High pressure offshore will draw in warmer and more humid
conditions Friday and through the weekend...which will result in
daily chances of thunderstorms. The best chance will be Saturday
into Saturday night with a cold front. Southerly winds look to
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend.
District of Columbia...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for anz530-
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Tuesday for anz532>534-537-